Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies outlook for the 2018 MLB season

Ozhaino “Ozzie” Albies will be one of the youngest players in the MLB next season, as he will turn 21 in January. The Curacao-born Albies will join the rising crop of Dutch infielders in the MLB a list that includes Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Schoop, Andrelton Simmons and 2017 playoff hero Didi Gregorius.

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Albies signed with the Atlanta Braves for $350,000 as an international free agent in 2013. According to Zach Dillard of Fox Sports, Albies was heavily influenced to sign with the Braves due to his personal connection with the aforementioned Simmons and Andruw Jones, who both are former Braves players and natives of Curacao.

As a 17-year-old in 2014, Albies was more than impressive, batting a combined .364 in 57 games in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. Heading into 2015, Albies was ranked within the top-100 prospects in baseball by Keith Law of Baseball Prospectus.

With heightened expectations, Albies did not disappoint, batting .310 with 29 extra-base hits and 29 stolen bases in 98 games. Albies was named to the All-Star Futures Games, where he was the youngest player to take the field. Unfortunately, he fractured his right thumb in early August, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2015 season.

He was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. In 138 games in Double and Triple-A, Albies batted a combined .292 with 49 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases.

He was invited to spring training once again in 2017, but was sent to triple-A as the Braves had a log jam in their middle infield with veteran Brandon Phillips at second base and first-overall pick Dansby Swanson at shortstop. In 97 games in Triple-A, Albies batted .285 with 48 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases.

2017 Season

Albies was called-up on August 1 and has since batted .286 with 20 extra-base hits and eight stolen bases in 57 games. This level of production would put Albies on pace to have 56 extra-base hits and 22 stolen bases.

He has an extraordinary 14.8 percent strike out rate and has made at least medium contact on 85 percent of batted balls, which are nearly identical figures to fellow middle infielders Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus.

2018 Outlook

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset, as even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with speed. (Photo by Getty Images)

In 2017, the 20-year-old spent the majority of his time batting second and seventh. It is assumed he will be used primarily in the top third of the lineup in 2018. Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset. Even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with his speed.

The Braves’ offense was very underrated in 2017, as they were ranked sixth in batting average and had the fourth fewest strikeouts. For fantasy purposes, batting in the top third of any lineup is great, but the Braves promise to be even more productive in 2018 with Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp and Ender Inciarte all healthy and returning.

The 2018 outlook for Ozzie Albies is incredibly bright. His draft stock is bound to increase by the day as we head toward the 2018 MLB season. The price for Albies will likely be between the 50th and 100th pick, depending on the draft date and league format. I will be buying plenty of Albies stock in 2018, will you?

 

 

 

 

 

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Injuries 2018 MLB season

Injuries to keep an eye on heading into the 2018 MLB season

With the ALCS and NLCS around the corner and the 2017 fantasy baseball season officially in the books, it is time to assess the 2018 outlook for the following four players. They are all currently injured with fairly loose time tables for return, but also could be impact players next season.

Jimmy Nelson, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Jimmy Nelson’s 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranks fourth in the MLB, only behind Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer. (Photo by The News and Observer)

Nelson quietly emerged as one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball this season.

Yes, you heard me correctly. Jimmy Nelson. His 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranked eighth in the MLB. Nelson also finished in the top 10 in K/9 (10.21) and xFIP (3.15) to go with a 3.49 ERA. In 175.1 innings, Nelson fell only one strikeout short of 200, which was a huge improvement from his prior career high of 148 in 177.1 innings.

According to fangraphs.com, Nelson’s curveball in 2017 was valued at 9.2, where a value of zero represents average, a positive value represents above average and a negative value represents below. To put this in better perspective, Clayton Kershaw’s curveball has been valued at a total of 63.8 over the course of his career, with a high of 16.5 and a yearly average of 7.2, although his curveball is currently valued at 6.4 in 2017. This shows that Nelson’s stuff is similarly effective to the likes of Kershaw.

The 28-year-old suffered a partially torn labrum and a strained rotator cuff after sliding back head-first into first base on September 8. He underwent surgery on September 19, which will undoubtedly set him back at the start of the 2018 season. According to MLB.com, Nelson shouldn’t be expected to return until midseason.

Nelson is well worth a flyer in fantasy drafts next season, as his price is sure to be discounted due to his long-awaited return.

Adam Eaton, Outfielder, Washington Nationals

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Adam Eaton tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 MLB season. (Photo by the Cincinnati Enquirer)

In his first season in Washington after being traded for prospect pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, Eaton had found himself in a fantasy friendly leadoff role. It was undeniable that he could score triple-digit runs and steal double-digit bases atop a loaded Nationals lineup.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 season.

Eaton was batting .297 with two home runs, three stolen bases and 14 walks through 23 games this season. His combination of speed, plate discipline, contact hitting and opportunity in the Nationals’ lineup push me to compare him to the likes of his former teammate A.J. Pollock.

Pollock is a career .286 hitter with a 162-game average of 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Eaton’s 162-game average is .284, 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases, showing that he offers similar value to Pollack a much cheaper price.

Early reports this season suggested that there would be a possibility for Eaton to return at the end of the 2017 season if the Nationals were to make a deep postseason run. However, the Nationals were eliminated in the NLDS and Eaton did not enter a game. This indicates that Eaton should be ready to go by the start of 2018, and by his own account according to the Washington Post, he plans to return “a better player for sure.”

Eaton’s confidence in himself is reassuring for his fantasy value moving forward, although the current outfield situation in Washington is not. Superstar Bryce Harper is locked into right field as long as he remains a National. Michael Taylor has emerged as much more than a depth outfielder after batting .271 with 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases in Eaton’s absence. Veteran slugger Jayson Werth was on pace for 23 home runs through 162-games, but was plagued with injuries. Top prospect Victor Robles has also shown that he is deserving of MLB at-bats.

It is uncertain if and to what extent Eaton will play in 2018. If he returns to an everyday role, he will reemerge to fantasy relevance once again.

Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Toronto Blue Jays

Injuries 2018 MLB Season

Troy Tulowitzki is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Tulowitzki was placed on the 60-day disabled list on August 6 after suffering ligament damage in his ankle. The 33-year-old played in only 66 games, slashing a career worst .249/.300/.378. Despite his clear struggles and lack of durability, manager John Gibbons told MLB Network Radio that they are committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop in 2018.

He is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. The once perennial National League MVP candidate has been reduced to a shell of his former self. In his three seasons as a Blue Jay, he has a combined .250 batting average and just 36 home runs in 238 games.

He spent the majority of the season batting either fifth or sixth. With the anticipated departure of Jose Bautista and the Josh Donaldson trade rumors, it is hard to identify where Tulowitzki will fit in the order or how productive the Blue Jays’ lineup can be.

His fantasy value moving forward is a conundrum, as no one knows what to expect at this point in his career. Will he resurrect his MVP form? Or will his skills and durability continue to diminish? Only time will tell, but his price on draft day in 2018 is sure to be a bargain.

Michael Conforto, Outfielder, New York Mets

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Prior to the injury, Michael Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.55 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. (Photo by NY Daily News)

Conforto underwent season ending surgery on September 6 to repair a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder. His anticipated return is around early March, although this only gives him a month to ramp up baseball activities before the start of the season in April, suggesting that he will miss the beginning of the 2018 regular season.

Prior to the injury, Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. This rate of production put Conforto on pace to hit 40 home runs and drive in 101 RBIs.

Whether he is in left, right or center field, Corforto is a lock to be in the Mets’ lineup. He has proven that he is not just a left-handed side of a platoon, but yet a budding superstar, as he was playing nearly everyday in July and August. However, he still only bats a career .180 against lefties, so be weary.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old is sure to be undervalued in fantasy circles next season. He is obviously coming off of an injury, but more importantly, he plays for the Mets, whose offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in runs, RBIs and batting average in 2017. With a healthy Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets could easily become a top-15 offense in 2018, making Conforto’s fantasy value rise immensely.

 

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Top 5 Fantasy Point Guards

The QB’s of B Ball: Top 5 Fantasy PG’s

 

5. Damian Lillard:

In my list there was no question in my mind that Damian Lillard is the fifth point guard for this season. I think he’s set for a clearly better year than Chris Paul (Who ESPN has ranked above him), and Kemba Walker who is right below him.

I think Lillard’s biggest problem in fantasy is his lack of triple double potential. He only averaged 4.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists last season but certainly made up for it in scoring with 27 PPG.

Lillard belongs at the five spot, there is no valid argument to put him ahead of the rest of the top five and no argument for him to be lower than 6-10. He could easily end up top five fantasy players in the league if he steps up his passing and rebounding but for now five seems right to me.

4. Steph Curry:

Image result for steph curry

(Photo by usatoday.com)

Many people would probably disagree with Curry being so low, With all these amazing talents at the point guard position you could literally pick and five of these guys and build a championship contending team

With overall fantasy value though comes more from the situation the player is in rather than the raw talent. With all the other players in this top 5 they are the number one option on their team, Now Curry might be the first option but his team is filled with number one guys.

I would not be surprised if people are taking Curry #1 overall because if you think he is going to win MVP and hit 1,000 threes then go ahead. For me I would have Curry somewhere in my top 10-12 range but it really just comes down to how much the individual values him.

 

3. John Wall:

Bradley Beal and John Wall are easily one of the most explosive back courts in the NBA. Wall secured the third highest fantasy points scored among point guards last season only behind Westbrook and Harden.

He is a consistent 20 and ten guy who compete harder on defense then most point guards in the NBA. Wall will always fill the stat sheet he averaged 2 steals a game could always get a block or two.

Image result for john wall

(Clutchpoints.com)

 

The one big downside for wall compared to the other top point guards is his rebounds. He only got 4 rebounds a game last season so his chances for triple doubles are much lower but hopefully he can improve on the glass this year.

Basically the only reason I have Wall over Curry is because Wall will always have big games though the whole season, where Curry will be able to take a step back and let his teammates win the games through the regular season.

2. Kyrie Irving:

The new face if the Boston Celtics is going to have a monstrous year, being the number one option on a playoff team is going to be great for both the Celtics and Kyrie.

Without LeBron breathing down Irving’s neck I think he is going to bring new elements to his game, compared to the primarily isolation player he was in Cleveland. Kyrie is bound to thrive in Brad Stevens system and this is why I think his fantasy value is currently under-rated.

Image result for Kyrie irving

(Clutchpoints.com)

 

ESPN currently is ranking him 5th out of all Point Guards in the league which I think is insane. They currently have Chris Paul above him and Damian which I think is ridiculous because of the situation these players are in. They don’t have a James Harden who needs the ball 24/7 on their team.

I may have over rated Kyrie a little bit but we will see at the end of the year when he is a top 10 to top 5 fantasy player in the league.

 

1. Russell Westbrook:

Image result for russell westbrook

(The Source Magazine)

There really isn’t a debate when it comes to who is the most valuable fantasy player in the entire league. Russell Westbrook proved himself last season winning the MVP and obtaining more fantasy points than any player in the league.

Averaging a astounding 31.58 PPG, 10.67 Assists and 10 rebounds last season it’s easy to see why he deserved to be MVP. But now he has a new challenge to incorporate two new superstars to the team and make everyone happy.

It’s well documented that Kevin Durant’s decision was partially influenced by how him and Westbrook meshed. So it’s important for Westbrook to share the ball and keep Carmelo and Paul George involved in the offense.

Fantasy wise these additions will have Westbrook’s points to take a downturn, but he should still average around 25 points a game. I want to see his assist numbers go way up which would make up for the loss in points but either way except a triple double almost every night.

 

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Top 5 Fantasy Centers

With the NBA season right around the corner it’s time to look at one of the most important positions in fantasy basketball the center. Centers are usually a total hit or miss as they are prone to injuries and there really isn’t that many elite centers in this age of basketball.

Image result for rudy gobert

Photo by denverpost.com

5. Rudy Gobert:

Gordon Hayward departing in free agency hurt and helped Rudy Gobert’s draft stock. On one hand Gobert doesn’t have the elite passer and playmaker that Hayward provided to get him open for easy buckets.  On the other, now that he’s gone, Gobert is option one, two and three.

The Utah Jazz have literally none besides Gobert they signed Ricky Rubio and Jonas Jerebko so yeahh…. But needless to say Rudy will see plenty of touches this year in Utah.

4. Hassan Whiteside:

After a solid season last year averaging 14 boards and 17 points I think Whiteside will be able to improve his offense and average around 15 rebounds and 20 points a game.

With another year to build chemistry with Goran Dragić and Justice Winslow, I think the Heat and Whiteside will both show improvement and be easily make the playoffs in the sad Eastern Conference.

Don’t spend a first round pick on Miami’s big guy but look for him in the late second to early third rounds.

3.Nikola Jokic:

Image result for nikola jokic

Photo by nba.com

The big guy from Serbia improved in literally every single stat from his rookie season averaging 16.7 points and 9.8 rebounds. Nikola has always excelled on the free throw line where many other centers struggle which nets him an extra five or six points a game.

He was actually fifth out of the entire NBA in 2-pt field goal percentage (.628), sixth in overall field goal percentage and eighth in basketball-reference’s player efficiency rating.

With Denver signing Paul Millsap, trading for Mason Plumlee and keeping Kenneth Faried the Nuggets have a lot of size. This should take some boards away from Jokic but his offense ability will most surely make up for it

2. DeMarcus Cousins

Image result for demarcus cousins

Photo by yahoosports.com

Cousins has always been a dominate fantasy commodity every year he has been in the league. I have always been a huge fan of Boogie and except him to shatter expectations this year and make the Pelicans a force to be reckoned with.

His average draft position according to basketballrefrence.com is 14.29. This is spot on if your considering a drop in rebounds and points being with Anthony Davis for the full year.

Overall I may have Cousins a little high but still think he can be a top 15 fantasy player this year.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns:

For the number one pick in fantasy basketball there is only three people that are in the conversation and Karl-Anthony Towns is certainly in that discussion.

It’s basically between Russell Westbrook, Karl-Anthony Towns and James Harden for best overall fantasy player. With the addition of Jimmy Butler the T-Wolves are in prime position for a playoff run and expect Towns to be extra motivated this year.

One great thing about Towns is that he has not missed a game in his career and was second in the NBA in minutes played last season. So you know your getting someone who is hungry to compete every single night.

Last year I had the number one pick in my fantasy league and chose Rusell Westbrook but now its actually up for debate who deserves the #1 pick this year.

 

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Luke Weaver is quietly dominating

Weaver

Weaver has been one of the best starters down the stretch (SD Union-Tribune)

Nobody is talking about Luke Weaver, and it is about time we should. The St. Louis Cardinals are starting to fade into obscurity after being swept by the Cubs at Wrigley over the weekend. Over the past few weeks however, we have gotten a glimpse into the rotation of the future.

Luke Weaver was the 27th pick in the draft for the Cardinals in 2014. Since then, he has been dominating the minor leagues with a career 25-11 record and 1.99 ERA. He was called up in July and has started seven games while appearing in 10. He now sports a 1.89 ERA on the season and is 6-1 with a 1.8 WAR already despite starting 20 less games than the leader, who has a 3.5 WAR.
For any fantasy baseball players out there, this is a great guy to get on your team at the most crucial time in the season. Players have picked up on that as he is now owned in over 70 percent of ESPN leagues. He has been paying off for them as well as he has been racking up the wins with an average of 8.4 K/9 over these last five wins he has earned.

The one thing that is worth mentioning about Weaver is the quality of teams he has pitched against. Four of five teams he has faced on this win streak have a sub .500 record. The Brewers are the only team that are in the playoff hunt out of the group, but he did strike out 10 in that appearance. The best team that Weaver has faced is the Diamondbacks who teed off him for four runs in five innings.

What he has to offer

Weaver features a 94-96 mph fastball that stays consistent throughout the game. He has an excellent changeup to back it up that has plenty of sink to throw off opposing hitters. Where Weaver excels is his control though. If you are to watch a game where he is pitching you will not see much of a mix up between him and Molina.

Where Weaver can stand to improve is with his breaking ball. He seems to have figured out a better way to control it since reaching the majors, but this is where he struggled in the minors. Look for him to work on that breaking ball because if the 24 year old can reign it in, he will be a force to be reckoned with

What Weaver means for St. Louis

Weaver

Alex Reyes will emerge as a star in the coming years (MLB.com)

With his performance as of late, the Cardinals should be very happy with what their young core looks like in the rotation. Alex Reyes is St. Louis’ best prospect, but he has been sidelined this season due to Tommy John surgery. He is still ranked as the 14th best prospect in baseball according to MLB.com despite the injury. Reyes just turned 23 so the Cardinals should be very hopeful about his future.
Jack Flaherty is another prospect the Cardinals are excited for. He is still adjusting to the big leagues as he currently has an ERA over 6.00, but he is still only 21 years old. Flaherty still has time to get used to the big leagues at such a young age. He has a solid fastball-changeup combo that should play well. The stuff is there, he just needs time to mature.
These three guys are all names that are starting to set in at the big league level. They should give GM Mike Girsch some excitement though knowing they will be joining Michael Wacha and potentially Lance Lynn if they choose to re-sign him.
Weaver fits right into the Cardinals future and potentially dominant rotation. He and Reyes seem to be the ideal candidates for Wainwright to pass the torch to once he retires.

Will he be able to sustain his success?

There is not much to suggest Weaver won’t be able to become a successful major league pitcher. He has had an easy schedule, but it is tough to take much away from a young pitcher who is having his first extended look at the majors. His impeccable control is what suggests he will be able to continue his dominance through the season.

He should become a fixture in the rotation next season, especially if Lance Lynn does not return. It will be interesting to see how the rotation will turn out with Weaver and Reyes potentially leading the way in the young rotation.

 

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Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow needs to be on your radar

Tyler Glasnow is flat out dominating

Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow can’t watch as Giancarlo Stanton takes him deep for his 16th home run of the year. (Photo by APNews.com)

The former fifth-round draft pick in 2011 began the 2017 season at the major league level with the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 12 major league starts, Tyler Glasnow pitched 54.1 innings, allowing 45 earned runs, 75 hits and 29 walks. His struggles prompted a demotion to triple-A Indianapolis, where he has since been baffling hitters with his mid-to-upper 90s fastball, high-80s changeup and devastating sweeping curve.

In 15 starts with the Indianapolis Indians, Glasnow has pitched 93.1 innings, allowing only 57 hits and 32 walks while striking out 140 batters. The 24-year-old has been dominant in the minors throughout his career.

Through 245 innings in triple-A, Glasnow has recorded a 1.95 ERA and 321 strikeouts. He has yet to have a season in the minor leagues where his xFIP, or expected fielding independent pitching, has been above 3.5, which is considered above average by fangraphs.com.

To better understand xFIP, one must under FIP, which according to fangraphs.com “measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.” I chose to use Glasnow’s xFIP opposed to his FIP because xFIP “removes some of the randomness in the pitcher’s actual performance… [in order] to give you a better view of how well we think a pitcher pitched over a given period of time” (Fangraphs.com).

Major adjustment

Tyler Glasnow

According to CBSSports.com, Tyler Glasnow himself said the change “has allowed him to relax mentally, and [throw] his fastball [in the] high 90s”. (Photo by IndyStar)

The major adjustment Glasnow has made this summer has been to his mechanics, as he is now pitching from the stretch opposed to the windup. This lets the 6-foot-8 hurler simplify his motion, allowing for better repetition of his mechanics. According to CBSSports.com, Glasnow himself said the change “has allowed him to relax mentally, and [throw] his fastball [in the] high 90s”.

According to Rotoballer.com, Glasnow has yet to be called up due to service time issues, although Rotowire.com has reported that Clint Hurdle said he “doesn’t anticipate… making any call-ups at all until the playoff seasons are over for Altoona and Indy,” which are the Pirates double and triple-A affiliates.

This means Glasnow isn’t likely to be promoted until mid-September, although once he receives the call, he promises to be a staple in the Buc’s rotation for years to come. He has been on fantasy radars for years, although because of his major league struggles, he was dropped in a majority of fantasy leagues. If you play in a deep keeper or dynasty league, adding Glasnow now as a flier would be a great move due to his incredible upside.

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Fantasy Baseball 2017: Heat Check 2.0

In the beginning of June, we looked over some players who were on fire and analyzed if they should be sold. In this heat check, we will identify and analyze some more of the hottest players in baseball right before the deadline.

They are who we thought they were!

These players were drafted early, although they have reached or exceeded expectations. All players were selected within the top 25 overall picks, and are ranked within the top six at their respected position in ESPN standard scoring formats.

Jose Altuve, Second Baseman, Houston Astros

ADP (average draft position): 3.5

Position Rank: 1

2017 Season: .369 AVG, 74 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI & 21 SB

Last seven: .615 AVG, 8 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI & 1 SB

Altuve is having a career year. The 5-foot-6 phenom is legitimately chasing .400 and is nearly a lock to earn his third batting title in four years.

He is currently on a 19-game hitting streak where he has tallied four home runs and 10 doubles, while driving in 19 and scoring 21 runs. Altuve is, and will remain, an elite fantasy asset for the long-term future.

Fantasy Baseball 2017: Heat Check

Chris Sale is having a once in a generation season. (Photo by: USA TODAY Sports)

Chris Sale, Starting Pitcher, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 18.1

Position Rank: 1

2017 Season: 148.1 IP, 13-4 W-L, 211 K, 2.37 ERA & 0.88 WHIP

Last three: 20.2 IP, 2-0 W-L, 33 K, 0.00 ERA & 0.73 WHIP

Sale’s expectations heading into 2017 were enormous, as for the first time in his career he found himself on a contending team. He is currently on pace to set career highs in wins and strikeouts, and career lows in WHIP and hits per nine.

After finishing as the ninth-best fantasy pitcher in 2016, it is safe to say that Sale has exceedingly outperformed his expectations. He is now firmly entrenched in the elite tier of fantasy pitching along with Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

Bryce Harper, Outfielder, Washington Nationals

ADP: 9.9

Position Rank: 2

2017 Season: .338 AVG, 86 R, 27 HR, 79 RBI & 2 SB

Last seven: .348 AVG, 6 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI & 0 SB

The first-overall pick in 2010 is healthy and performing like his former MVP self. Harper is on pace to hit 47 bombs, score 151 runs and drive in 139 runners, which would all be career highs.

He is leading the National League in OPS as well as OPS+ and is arguably the favorite to win the NL MVP award. His fantasy value moving forward is just a hair below Mike Trout’s, who is the undisputed number one fantasy player in baseball.

Fantasy Baseball 2017: Heat Check

Corey Kluber has gone full-Klubot in 2017. (Photo by: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports)

Corey Kluber, Starting Pitcher, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 22.8

Position Rank: 6

2017 Season: 108.1 IP, 8-3 W-L, 149 K, 2.74 ERA & 0.96 WHIP

Last three: 20.0 IP, 1-0 W-L, 33 K, 2.25 ERA & 0.90 WHIP

Kluber missed almost all of May with a back injury, although he still manages to be ranked a top-10 starter in 2017. He has struck out double digit batters in eight of his last 10 starts and is on pace to set career lows in ERA and WHIP.

If he can stay healthy, the 31-year-old will be a Cy Young candidate for a fourth straight year and possibly an MVP candidate for a third time.

Nolan Arenado, Third Baseman, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 4.5

Position Rank: 1

2017 Season: .313 AVG, 69 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI & 2 SB

Last seven: .350 AVG, 4 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI & 0 SB

Arenado is arguably the best third baseman in the game today. Many overlook his greatness, or dismiss it due to his home and away splits, although he will have the opportunity to go down as the greatest third baseman of all time.

Arenado is on pace to have 148 career home runs and 520 RBIs at the end of this his 26-year-old season, which puts him on pace to be more productive than Hall of Fame third baseman George Brett (74 HR & 461 RBIs at age 26) and Mike Schmidt (131 HR & 373 RBIs at age 26).

Kansas City Resurgence

The Kansas City Royals struggled mightily to begin 2017, as they sported a record of 7-16 through April. In the next three months, the club went 47-31 and now are in second place in AL Central behind the Cleveland Indians.

The Royals’ recent success is due to their red-hot bats, as within the last 14 days, the team is on a nine-game winning streak, in which they are batting .302 with 21 home runs, 76 runs scored and 70 RBIs.

Eric Hosmer, First Baseman, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 88.9

Position Rank: 6

2017 Season: .320 AVG, 63 R, 16 HR, 54 RBI & 6 SB

Last seven: .400 AVG, 8 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI & 2 SB

Hosmer began the year slow, batting only .225 with one home run, five runs scored and six RBIs in his first 23 games. On the contrary, in his last 23 games, he is batting .374 with 6 home runs, 21 runs scored and 19 RBIs.

Hosmer is beginning to prove his true value and is likely to return to the AL MVP conversation, which he has been absent from since 2015.

Fantasy Baseball 2017: Heat Check

Mike Moustakas is an integral piece to this Royals lineup. (Photo by: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Mike Moustakas, Third Baseman, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 187.6

Position Rank: 8

2017 Season: .279 AVG, 53 R, 30 HR, 69 RBI & 0 SB

Last seven: .333 AVG, 6 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI & 0 SB

Moustakas is on the final year of his contact, although he is expected to remain a Royal for the remainder of the year, as the Royals have recently became a contender. His team-high 30 home runs and 69 RBIs have helped carry the load, as he has accounted for over 12 percent of the team’s runs scored and 16 percent of their runs batted in.

The 28-year-old has been, and will continue to be, a great contributor in real life and in fantasy, as he offers well above average power and production in the heart of a red-hot lineup.

Salvador Perez, Catcher, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 177.0

Position Rank: 1

2017 Season: .284 AVG, 44 R, 21 HR, 63 RBI & 1 SB

Last seven: .278 AVG, 3 R, 3 HR, 4 RBI & 0 SB

Perez is the most important piece to the Royals’ puzzle due to his ability behind the plate. The fact that his bat is producing at its current levels is simply a plus.

The 27-year-old is currently ranked as the top catcher in fantasy due to his position-high 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. He is on pace to set career highs in almost every major hitting category and should treated as one of the MLB’s elite at his position.

Fantasy Baseball 2017: Heat Check

Whit Merrifield has taken full advantage of his everyday role in 2017. (Photo by Rotoprofessor.com)

Whit Merrifield, Second Baseman/Outfielder, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 260

Position Rank: 6

2017 Season: .294 AVG, 42 R, 11 HR, 43 RBI & 16 SB

Last seven: .360 AVG, 5 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI & 0 SB

Merrifield went undrafted in almost all formats, although he has managed to become a top-10 player at his position in 2017. He has found a home in the leadoff spot, as he has played 54 out of his 68 games in that position, which gives him a better chance to produce than if he were batting in the bottom third of the lineup.

Merrifield’s ceiling isn’t miraculously high, although a 15 home run and 30 steal campaign isn’t out of the question. The 28-year-old is taking full advantage of receiving everyday playing time and is sure to continue his production moving forward.

Jorge Bonifacio, Outfielder, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 260

Position Rank: 64

2017 Season: .265 AVG, 44 R, 14 HR, 32 RBI & 1 SB

Last seven: .400 AVG, 7 R, 3 HR, 4 RBI & 0 SB

Bonafacio is having a very solid rookie year. He was called up in late April and has been particularly impressive, as his 162-game average would predict him to hit 29 home runs, score 90 runs and produce 66 RBIs.

The 24-year-old has batted primarily in the two-hole for Kansas City, which is a pivotal spot in the lineup for production purposes.  His value is low right now, but it should increase as the Royals continue to find success.

 

Featured Image by ESPN.com

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Biggest disappointments of the 2017 MLB season

Fantasy baseball is always full of disappointments. Below are five players who were expected to have big years, but have fallen well short of their expectations.

Rick Porcello, Starting Pitcher, Boston Red Sox

Biggest Disappointments 2017 MLB Season

Rick Porcello is having one of the worst campaigns after winning the AL Cy young just a year ago. (Masslive.com)

The 2016 American League Cy Young winner has been a serious disappointment in 2017. Just a year ago, Porcello had won a career-high 22 games while sporting a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

2017 has been quite the opposite for the 28-year-old, as he currently has a 4-10 record with a 5.06 ERA. His BABIP is about .100 points higher than it was in 2016, which has resulted in a batting average against of .312, which is about .080 points off of his 2016 marks.

Porcello’s struggles have been severe and imminent, as he is giving up 12 percent more hard contact than he did a year ago. Batters have adjusted, while Porcello has not, and if this were to continue, Porcello would be in line to have one of the worst seasons by a reigning Cy Young Winner since Bartolo Colon’s 2006 campaign.

Jonathan Villar, Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base, Milwaukee Brewers

Villar finished as a top-five fantasy player in standard ESPN formats in 2016. His 19 home runs and 62 steals along with a very respectable .285 average made him a top-40 selection in 2017.

So far this season, Villar is batting a mere .216 with eight home runs and 15 stolen bases. His strikeout rate has risen five percent while his walk rate has decreased by four percent, showing that the 26-year-old is trending in the wrong direction. He has fallen from playing an everyday role at the top of the lineup, to being a platoon mate with Eric Sogard and Orlando Arcia while batting at the bottom-half of the order.

Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers

Biggest Disappointments 2017 MLB Season

Justin Verlander may be a future Hall of Famer, but his 2017 campaign is far from Hall of Fame caliber. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The future Hall of Famer has taken a huge step back in 2017. His 2016 campaign ended with a runner-up finish in the American League Cy Young race, as he logged a 16-9 record with a 3.04 ERA and 10.04 K/9.

In 2017, Verlander’s performance has been quite abysmal. His ERA sits at 4.47 and WHIP sits at 1.45, which is due to his drastically increased walk rate that is currently at 4.18 per nine innings. He is allowing about 10 percent more hard contact than last season, which has caused his BAA to rise from .207 in 2016 to .253 this season. The 34-year-old can still be fantasy relevant, although up to this point, he has been a clear disappointment.

Starling Marte, Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates

Marte finished the 2016 season as the 25th overall fantasy player in standard ESPN scoring formats. The expectations were high for the 28-year-old, as he had just hit nine home runs and stole 47 bases while batting .311 in only 129 games. With hopes of drafting a player who can bat over .300, hit 15 home runs and steal over 50 bases, Marte was being selected within the top-30 picks in all leagues.

He was suspended 80 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance in April. Even in the 13 games in which he played this season, Marte’s strikeout rate has risen by 10 percent while his batting average has dropped .070 points from the season before. I understand this sample size is too small to matter, to it’s worth mentioning.

Marte’s suspension will end on July 18, so look for the star outfielder to return to the Pirates outfield sometime in late July.

Mark Melancon, Relief Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

Biggest Disappointments 2017 MLB Season

Mark Melancon was brought over to San Francisco to solidify their bullpen, although he has been quite the disappointment in 2017. (Keith Srakocic, Associated Press)

Melancon was an All-Star and finished the season with a 1.64 ERA and 47 saves while playing for both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals in 2016. This offseason, Melancon signed a four-year deal with the Giants, who may be regretting their decision.

The 32-year-old currently has a 4.35 ERA and a BABIP of .355, which is a about .100 points higher than his previous season. Bad luck may be a big part of Melancon’s struggles, as his strikeout and walk rates have improved from 2016.

He is currently experiencing a right pronator strain, which he has received a PRP injection for. Since there is no structural damage, Melancon should return sooner rather than later, although the Giants have picked up struggling reliever Sam Dyson to fill the void for the time being.

 

Featured image by Sports Illustrated

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Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Targets

Fantasy baseball 2017: Buy low targets

In fantasy baseball, the best time to trade for a player is when their value is at its lowest point. The buy low theory is clearly the best way to acquire top-tier talent for fairly cheap prices. Below are four players that could be considered buy low targets, as they offer immense upside despite their current levels of performance.

Manny Machado, Third Base/Shortstop, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Buy Low Targets

Manny Machado is on pace for 35 home runs, but his low batting average makes him a perfect buy low target. (Credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images).

Machado’s 2017 campaign has not gone as planned. After batting over .285 with at least 35 home runs in his two previous seasons, he was considered one of the top 10 fantasy hitters in the game. So far in 2017, he is batting only .224 with a raised strikeout rate by over four percent.

His career BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is .303, although his current BABIP sits at a mere .234. BABIP tends to represent whether a hitter is getting lucky or unlucky. According to fangraphs.com, a BABIP “in the .230 range is very atypical for a major league hitter”, so for Machado, it is clear he is getting extremely unlucky.

His home run totals have sustained as he has an ISO, or isolated power, of .224 and is on pace for 35 home runs. If you have an opportunity to pick up Machado, as his value seems to be at its deepest point, now is the time.

Francisco Lindor, Shortstop, Cleveland Indians

Lindor had gotten off to a slow start in 2017. His current BABIP of .251 is quite far off from his career BABIP of .315. This is negatively affecting his batting average as he is currently batting .255, whereas he is a career .295 hitter.

The 23-year-old’s strikeout rate has continued to drop in every consecutive season which shows how he is progressing as a hitter. Also, his ISO is an amazing .227 and his HR/FB rate is a fairly sustainable 13.3 percent, showing that his power seems sustainable.

Lindor will surely set a career high in home runs this season as he is currently on pace for 32. If you can get your hands on Lindor while his value is still low, it will be an incredible steal as his performance is sure to improve.

Rougned Odor, Second Base, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball 2017 Buy Low Targets

Rougned Odor had an extremely slow start in 2017. (Photo by MLB Trade Rumors)

Odor’s struggles were very real in 2017, as he had been batting under the Mendoza line for about three months. So far in June, he is batting .228, although his BABIP remains under .240, suggesting he is in line for major progression as his career BABIP sits around .281.

In 2016, Odor exploded onto the scene, hitting 33 home runs and stealing 14 bases while batting .271. Odor’s current .212 batting average is due to be on the rise because of his extremely low BABIP.

If you can pick up Odor now before his performance improves, you will have found yourself a top-tier fantasy asset, as he has the potential to be a great producer of home runs, RBIs, runs and steals.

Kyle Schwarber, Outfield, Chicago Cubs

Schwarber was recently sent down to Triple-A Iowa to clear his head and improve his approach. According to reports, the minor league stint shouldn’t be long, although it is well deserved. The 24-year-old is slashing a poor .171/.295/.378 with 12 home runs and 28 RBI.

His production has been solid even while batting well under the Mendoza line. His .193 BABIP suggests that he is getting absurdly unlucky, as he currently has the lowest BABIP in the MLB out of qualified batters.

His value has declined due to his current struggles and demotion, so now is the time to make a move for the former fourth overall pick.

 

Featured image by David Klutho

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Judge

Is it time to sell high on Aaron Judge?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has officially broken out. The 6-foot-7, 285-pounder is arguably the best power hitter in baseball.

He is continuously setting MLB Statcast records, most recently hitting a home run that recorded an exit velocity of 121.1 MPH, which broke his former record for hardest hit home run that measured 119.8 MPH. Judge holds nine of the top 15 hardest hit balls recorded in 2017.

Sell high Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge suffered severe struggles in 2016. (Photo by The New York Post)

His first MLB action came in August of 2016, where the slugger struggled mightily. In 27 games, he batted just .179 with only four home runs. The most alarming observation from his first stint in the majors was his atrocious 44.2 percent strikeout rate.

Clearly, after an offseason of adjustments, Judge has significantly improved his approach at the plate. His strikeout rate has dropped to a serviceable 29 percent, which is still considered “awful” according to fangraphs.com, although it is still lower than many current premier power hitters, including Khris Davis (31.5 percent), Cody Bellinger (32 percent), Miguel Sano (36 percent) and Chris Davis (38 percent).

Judge currently leads the entire MLB in home runs with 22, while ranking second in the American League in both batting average at .335 and RBIs with 49. He is dangerously close to being in position to win the AL Triple Crown, which is an accomplishment that has only been done 17 times, most recently by future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera in 2012 (.330/44/139).

Currently on pace for about 58 home runs and 130 RBI, it is time to question whether Judge’s success is sustainable.

His current BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, of .433 suggests that he is getting incredibly lucky. BABIP measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball in play is considered any outcome other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt or home run.

According to fangraphs.com, a BABIP of .350 over a sample size of 4,000 plate appearances would be considered a mark that only the best hitters in the league will reach. An example of a player who falls into this category is Joey Votto, who over the course 5,719 plate appearances has a career BABIP of .354.

The highest BABIP registered in a complete season since 1945 was by Hall of Famer Rod Carew in 1977, in which he finished the year with a .408 BABIP and .388 batting average. In the 2000’s, only one player managed to finish a season with a BABIP over .400, which was Manny Ramirez in 2000 (.403).

This shows that Judge’s BABIP is sure to plummet from its current .425 mark, as not even the greatest hitters of all time would be able to sustain a BABIP this high.

Sell high Aaron Judge

Judge has become the best power hitter in baseball in 2017. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge’s home run to fly ball rate is at 41.5 percent. To put that in perspective, when Judge has been hitting a fly ball, there has been over a 40 percent chance of it leaving the yard.

According to fangraphs.com, “good home run hitters typically have HR/FB ratios anywhere from 15-20 percent”.

Unfortunately, this analytic was not created until 2002, so we cannot compare Judge’s current HR/FB rate to Barry Bonds’ 2001 marks, although we can look at other more contemporary players instead.

Chris Davis hit 53 home runs in 2013 with a 29.6 percent HR/FB rate, Chris Carter hit 41 home runs in 2016 with a 23.8 percent HR/FB rate and Miguel Cabrera hit 44 home runs in consecutive seasons in 2012 and 2013 with 23 and 25 percent HR/FB rates respectively. It is clear that Judge’s HR/FB rate will drop significantly, but by how much we cannot be sure.

I think we can all agree Judge is the real deal, although for fantasy purposes, this seems like the optimal time to sell high on the superstar. His value could not be any higher and is sure to drop as his BABIP and HR/FB inevitably will fall.

Trading Judge now could result in the addition of a bonifide ace, like Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, or Max Scherzer, opposed to in a month were his value may only be able to garner a Chris Archer, Yu Darvish, or Carlos Martinez.

To all my fellow fantasy baseball owners, good luck to your teams moving forward.

 

Featured Image by Sports Illustrated

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