DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry fantasy situation

Is DeMarco Murray in danger of losing his job to Derrick Henry?

How to Handle the situation at this moment

DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry fantasy situation

DeMarco Murray (Photo by: apexfantasyleagues.com)

In the first two games, Murray had 60 total yards on 14 touches and then 28 total yards on 10 touches before his injury. Again it may seem normal, but after this injury this could become the end of Murray as the lead back.

If Murray isn’t a go for the week 3 game against Seattle, this opens the door for Henry to show his ability. Henry could have a good week with the Seattle’s run defense has allowed 10-plus fantasy points to a running back in each of the first two weeks.

This could cause Murray to lose some touches. Vice versa, then fantasy owners won’t have to worry as Murray then could get his touches back when he heals.

If you Have Derrick Henry or both

If you’re a Derrick Henry owner, you could be in the driver’s seat.

DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry fantasy situation

Derrick Henry (Photo by: titansonline.com)

As I mentioned above, with a chance Murray won’t be available, this could be Henry’s big chance to take over. Even if Murray plays, he’s in for a decent workload. With Seattle’s run defense struggling, he has a good offensive line to run behind.

Tennessee finished the 2016 season as a top-graded run blocking unit, and the Titans brought back all of last year’s starters and have begun the year healthy up front. Henry’s 5.8 yards per carry in two games is No. 12 among running backs.

This could mean with a solid performance, that Henry’s name will be around for people to trade for in fantasy. Expect Henry to be the lead running back by season’s end. The Titans did not use a high draft pick on the running back to not want him to get more involved in the offense.

If you have both then you can relax. Keep tabs over the next week then you can make the determination who to start. But in this case I still start the healthier back in Henry.

What Happens if Henry dominates

If the situation whether Murray plays or not with Henry dominates, then it will be time for panic.

One thing not to do is trade him or cut him. Trading him isn’t an answer because no one will give you anything good for him, not even the owner who has Henry. Cutting him won’t do better because there is no one better. What’s next?

Murray was a second or third-round pick in most leagues. And having to say this it will take really his ability to get healthy and hoping Henry doesn’t do well. But this definitely means Murray and Henry will split reps more.

While the worst hasn’t happened, be prepared for a bumpy ride Murray owners. You could be heading for a disappointing road.

 

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Fantasy Monday Night Preview: Giants-Lions

Fantasy Monday night preview: Giants vs. Lions

Week two will come to an end tonight with the Detroit Lions playing the New York Giants in MetLife Stadium. With many players on both teams on fantasy football rosters, here are some of the players to keep an eye on both good and bad.

Eli Manning

giants lions monday night fantasy

Eli Manning (Photo by: newsday.com)

The Giants offense was a mess last week against the Dallas Cowboys. They accumulated 13 first downs and just three points.

Manning had 220 yards and an interception. Part of his struggles were due to the very inconsistent offensive line. Even if Odell Beckham Jr. played, it wouldn’t have helped that much.

The Detroit defense agitated Carson Palmer as they picked him off three times, but only got to him one time for a sack. They still gave up 23 points to the Cardinals and a lot of fantasy points to Arizona receivers. While they have shown they can make plays, they can still be inconsistent.

Manning could be in for a big week. Don’t be worried if you started him. However, be cautious because if the offensive line repeats last week’s performance, it could be a long day for the Giant offense.

Matthew Stafford

giants lions monday night fantasy

Matthew Stafford (Photo by: foxsports.com)

There was only one quarterback that posted more fantasy points then Matthew Stafford last week. He was spectacular after a four touchdown performance for 292 yards on a solid Cardinal defense. He also completed over 70 percent of his passes. While Stafford put up excellent numbers against a good Cardinal defense, expecting him to duplicate those numbers against a very good Giant defense might be unrealistic.

With that being said, this might not be the best week to play Stafford, unless you didn’t have a better option. The Giants were the second-toughest team against fantasy quarterbacks last season, and Stafford was held to just 10.22 points in his matchup last year against them with 273 yards and one interception.

Giants defense/special teams

giants lions monday night fantasy

Landon Collins (Photo by: giantswire.usatoday.com)

The Giants defense looked good last week against the Cowboys. Considering how much they were on the field, they held their own. They did what they were expected to do.

They were on the field for 34 minutes and gave up just 19 points. That’s pretty good. Players like Janoris Jenkins shut down Dez Bryant. They prevented Ezekiel Elliott from scoring and limited Dak Prescott to 268 passing yards and one touchdown.

Where the Giants struggled besides not getting a breather was creating turnovers. This week could be the week to execute as we saw this the last time these two teams met. The Giants created two turnovers with an interception and a fumble recovery against Detroit. We’ve seen Stafford get too aggressive throwing the ball and should play a key factor if the Giants can create a pass rush.

The running backs on both teams

One position on both offenses to avoid is all running backs on both teams, unless it is a PPR league.

giants lions monday night fantasy

Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick (Photo by: cbssports.com)

The Detroit running attack only had 82 total rushing yards and 3.0 yards per attempt. Last week, Theo Riddick had one rush for -1 yards, but still remains a PPR option with 6 catches for 27 yards and a touchdown.

Ameer Abdullah will still be the main ball carrier, but struggled with 30 yards rushing last week with his longest run being seven yards. The Giants were the fifth best in fantasy defensive scoring with 243.20 points. In 2016, the Lions only had 56 rushing yards against the Giants.

On the other side, the Giants only had 35 yards rushing with 2.9 yards per attempt. As I stressed earlier, the offensive line was no help. Paul Perkins only had 16 rushing yards and nine receiving yards last week. Shane Vereen becomes an intriguing option in PPR leagues as he led the Giants in receptions with nine for 51 yards.

 

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Allen Robinson's Injury

Allen Robinson’s injury

Allen Robinson left the game against the Houston Texans in Week 1 after landing awkwardly after a 17-yard catch and was forced out of bounds. It was confirmed by the Jaguars that he did tear his ACL.

He was the main target back in 2015 with 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He struggled in 2016 with 73 receptions, 883 yards and six touchdowns. However, it’s hard to fault Robinson for the struggles because of bad quarterback play.

With Robinson out for the season, we look to other Jaguar receivers to pick up the slack after the Robinson injury and for some fillers to replace him on your fantasy team.

The role for other Jaguar receivers

Even though the significance of Robinson’s injury is high, the Jaguars have depth behind him. If there is one place they might have an excess of talent, it’s at wide receiver. This will open the door for Allen Hurns, who broke out in 2015 with Robinson having 1,031 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

Allen Robinson injury

Robinson, Hurns, Lee (Photo by: firstcoastnews.com)

In 2016, he struggled as did most players for the Jaguars and also dealt with injuries. He was demoted for the 2017 season to the slot with the emergence of Marqise Lee, but will now likely be back to the outside.

After the injury, Hurns led the way in receiving against the Texans with three catches for 42 yards. Hurns is worth the look to replace Robinson on your team if Lee is already owned.

Lee showed some promise after 2016. He finally played all 16 games after three seasons and got 105 targets, 63 receptions, 851 yards and three touchdowns. In an article from Bleacher Report, writer Adam Wells had a quote from Bob Sylvester of Fantasypros about Lee’s progression.

“Lee started just six games last season but arguably outperformed Allen Robinson. It is possible that he sees an extra 30 targets this season now that they know what they have in Lee. He is due for significant positive TD regression too.”

Now this doesn’t mean start Lee week to week. However, he does become a more dependable option at the flex position.

Players to Replace Robinson on your team

Although a disappointing 2016 season, Robinson was still the number one target in Jacksonville. That’s not easy to replace, especially in fantasy.

The first option to look to is the backup on the Jaguars, which is Hurns. Lee is also available in many leagues. Though this option could be risky because they don’t throw the ball like they used to. Now they just hand it off to rookie Leonard Fournette, who had 26 carries on Sunday.

Allen Robinson injury

Allen Robinson (Photo by: jaguars.com)

One receiver that could help in the long run is Eagles receiver Nelson Agholor. He has trouble since entering the NFL, but last Sunday looked like an improvement with six catches for 86 yards and a 58-yard touchdown. He still has other receivers in front of him, but if this is the breakout we’ve waited for, then this might be the time to pick him up.

Another receiver is preseason sensation Kenny Golladay of the Detroit Lions. Golladay just caught four passes for 69 yards and two touchdowns. He is a big red zone threat thanks to his 6-foot-4 height.

But Detroit has a lot of options such as Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron. However, he does have a hot hand and has proven himself in preseason.

If Robinson was a WR3/flex, then you could look at trending running backs. Kerwynn Williams is now the starter in Arizona after David Johnson’s injury. Javorius Allen could slide to fill the role in Baltimore now with Danny Woodhead out four to six weeks. Rookie Tarik Cohen could also be an interesting pickup. The Human Joystick led the Bears in both rushing and receiving in his NFL regular season debut, finishing with 113 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. He will continue to be a key contributor in the offense.

 

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Chiefs Patriots fantasy football

What we learned about the Chiefs and Patriots in fantasy

We saw the unexpected on the opening night of the NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs exploded in the second half and won 42-27 against the defending champion New England Patriots.

From a fantasy football perspective, we saw quarterback Alex Smith and rookie running back Kareem Hunt go out on a tear along with wide receiver Tyreek Hill. While this gives hope for fantasy owners to start Chiefs offensive players more then they did in the preseason, I warn those owners not to expect this on a weekly basis. For those who are worried about the Patriots offense, don’t panic.

Patriots Defense most of the Blame

As I say again, the Patriots were looking like the typical Patriots in the first half. Then things changed in the second half. Part of that is because of the Patriots defense.

Chiefs Patriots fantasy football

Tom Brady (Photo by: usatoday.com)

Their defense isn’t anything special, unlike their offense. They finished 19th in fantasy points in 2016.

They added cornerback Stephon Gilmore this offseason to play alongside Malcolm Butler. They also have Dont’a Hightower at linebacker. It’s not a great defense, it’s a good defense.

They were liked by many this week because of the matchup. The Chiefs aren’t known for an explosive offense, especially in the passing game, which finished 19th in yards per game.

They had a rookie running back starting the game. The Pats made defensive plays in the first half getting a fumble recovery. Then the Chiefs made big plays, including two deep passes for touchdowns. This made the offense play catch up with a group Brady hasn’t played with much.

Don’t panic about the patriots offensive players

I don’t think the Patriots playing catch up is the reason for some of the struggles. They did it down 28-3 in the Super Bowl. I think some of it is because of Brady having different targets he’s not used to yet.

He didn’t have Julian Edelman, someone he relies on. Brady did have Rob Gronkowski, who was a non-factor with two catches for 33 yards. He did do well with Danny Amendola, who had six catches for 100 yards and Brandin Cooks caught three passes for 88 yards. Cooks proved he can be a dependable WR1. As for Amendola, he suffered a concussion, which seems repetitive because he does well and gets hurt all the time.

Chiefs Patriots fantasy football

Mike Gillislee (Photo by: bostonherald.com)

As for the running backs, Mike Gillislee was the man, scoring three times on 45 yards. Rex Burkhead got the first two snaps, but he only played eight more snaps the rest of the game. James White had a decent performance, rushing the ball 10 times for 38 yards while hauling in three of his five targets for 30 yards.

All in all, four running backs combined for 34 touches in Week 1, and that could be reality all season. Gillislee is the one to own, but White should be a must-own too, especially after getting 10 rushing attempts.

Keep in mind they have a guy named Bill Belichick. The genius will find a way for this not to happen again. I also stress the fact they did play a defense who finished second in fantasy points for defense/special teams.

Don’t expect this from the Chiefs offensive fantasy players every week

I think this is understood, saying the Chiefs won’t play like this every week. But let’s give credit where it’s due. Smith, Hunt and Hill were dominant this week. Again, don’t expect this week in and week out.

Smith may have had the best game I’ve seen a quarterback have against the Patriots in a while. He completed 28 of 35 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns in Thursday’s win. He also completed two 70-plus-yard touchdown passes and rarely seemed flustered the entire night.

This doesn’t make Smith a must-start every week, so don’t get your hopes up. All you need from players is one good week and he gets more looks. This makes receivers like Hill and Travis Kelce more dependable given Smith’s play. Given the right matchup, he could be a start for teams with quarterback troubles.

Chiefs Patriots fantasy football

Kareem Hunt (Photo by: sbnation.com)

Hunt owners were frighted when he fumbled on his first run, something he didn’t do at all in college. He didn’t let that rattle him like many other rookies though. He went on a tear and racked up 246 yards of total offense: 148 rushing yards on 17 carries with a touchdown and 98 receiving yards with two more scores on five receptions.

It’s safe to say running back by committee is toned down a bit. This is his job now. Though this might end up Hunt’s best game of the season, so we shouldn’t overreact and expect him to be an elite back just yet. Hunt should be a high flex play or RB2 play for weeks to come.

Hill had seven receptions on eight targets for 133 yards and a touchdown on Thursday. He also carried the ball twice for five yards. It’s safe to say Hill exploded in the first game. He looked impressive, burning corners to get open deep down the field and hauling in passes in traffic. Hill is a solid WR1 for now as he has silenced his critics for the time being.

It’s just Week 1

In conclusion, it’s just week 1. We see players who we expect to do well struggle and the unexpected from some players. Don’t read too much into what you saw from Thursday’s game. There’s many weeks still to go.

There’s many things still to come for the 2017 fantasy season. One bit of advice that I can give is enjoy it.

 

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Five Fantasy Quarterbacks love Week 1

Five quarterbacks I love for fantasy week 1

Week 1 is here and everyone is excited for the NFL season and fantasy football. Now it’s time to figure out who to start and who to sit.

Looking at all the matchups and analysis from fantasy football experts, I’ve decided to give the five quarterbacks I love for week 1.

Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs Oakland Raiders

Five Fantasy Quarterbacks love Week 1

Marcus Mariota (Photo by:dailymail.co.uk)

The Titans and Raiders might be the highest scoring game in week 1. Tennessee’s defense ranked 30th in passing defense and Oakland finished 24th. Marcus Mariota struggled last year against Oakland, throwing for 214 yards with 2 interceptions and a fumble along with 22 rushing yards.

However, this Titans team is different than last year. They have new additions at receiver with Eric Decker and fifth-overall pick Corey Davis, along with Rishard Matthews and tight end Delanie Walker to compliment their run game.

Mariota can thrive in this matchup as a runner. The Raiders’ defense tied for most rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks last season.

Derek Carr (OAK) vs Tennessee Titans

Five Quarterbacks love Fantasy Week 1

Derek Carr (Photo by: bleacherreport.com)

As I mentioned with Mariota, you have to like Derek Carr as well in this matchup. Carr also struggled fantasy wise in this matchup last year, throwing for 249 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Both teams have questionable secondaries and both teams have solid offenses. The Titans were awful against the pass, allowing 269 yards per game last year

Carr has weapons and is coming off a good 2016 campaign and back from injury. He should thrive in this week 1 matchup.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs Cleveland Browns

Five Fantasy Quarterbacks love Week 1

Ben Roethlisberger (Photo by:deadspin.com)

Some people say this is obvious. In all seriousness, The Browns’ defense allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last year (19.4 points per game in standard scoring). They also ranked 21st in pass defense.

Roethlisberger had a decent game in his only start against Cleveland with 167 passing yards. That game was dominated by Le’Veon Bell on the ground. To top that, Roethlisberger has Antonio Brown and Bell back after his holdout with contract issues. Martavis Bryant also returns after his year-long suspension.

Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense should start out hot against the Browns.

Sam Bradford (MIN) vs New Orleans Saints

Five Fantasy Quarterbacks love Week 1

Sam Bradford (Photo by:billypenn.com)

When we look at 2016 for Sam Bradford, his season was up and down. However, he finished with the highest completion percentage (71.6 percent) and 15th highest in passing yards per game (258 yards). That’s remarkable, especially being traded days before the opening week last year with little preparation.

But back to his matchup the New Orleans Saints. He faces the worst passing defense a year ago, which allowed 274 passing yards per game. It’s a no brainer to look at him if you have quarterback issues.

Now that Bradford won’t have distractions with being traded and is now used to the playbook, expect Bradford to have top-10 potential in week 1.

Carson Palmer (ARI) vs Detroit Lions

Five Fantasy Quarterbacks love Week 1

Carson Palmer (Photo by: azcardinals.com)

After a dominating 2015 campaign, Carson Palmer struggled in 2016. Once viewed as a QB1, he’s now regarded as a QB2. But for week 1 Palmer is a good QB1.

Detroit’s pass rush is a big question mark with Ziggy Ansah just now beginning to practice and have no one truly dangerous playing alongside him.

This helps Palmer. Last year’s touchdown-per-attempt rate when pressured last season was just 2.7 percent, yet that leapt to 4.7 percent in a clean pocket. That is a rate well ahead of the league average (4.2).

The Lions also really only have one good cornerback with Darius Slay, which opens the deep ball on favorable matchups. Palmer was third in air yards per attempt last season, a stat that supports big-play upside. The Cardinals offense is poised for a strong showing this week.

 

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Cam Newton facing fantasy criticism

Cam Newton fantasy football: Why the criticism?

Has the time come to consider Cam Newton a potential bust? That’s how many fantasy football writers have labeled Newton this offseason. In 2016 he did struggle after a season where he was MVP and went to Super Bowl 50 in 2015. But why is Cam Newton facing criticism in fantasy?

Why The criticism

Newton had one of the worst seasons of his career last season. He had career low numbers in completion percentage (52.9 percent) and yards per attempt (6.9), along with his third season of less than 20 passing touchdowns.

One year after posting 45 more fantasy points than any other player, Newton fell to 17th at the position. He posted just five top-10 fantasy weeks, and only three after Week 2. And he had Kelvin Benjamin back, along with Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn who was a deep threat machine for Newton.

Cam Newton fantasy football

Cam Newton (Photo by: pantherswire.usatoday.com)

But Newton isn’t known for his passing. The major factor of the criticism is running the football.

The concern of his dwindling rushing totals are real. He had career lows in attempts (90), yards (359) and touchdowns (five). The worst part is that his head coach doesn’t want him to run as much. That’s where Newton excelled.

Granted it’s smart to change the offense to protect their franchise quarterback from shoulder injuries and concussions. But if we’re to rely on Newton for fantasy, and if the Carolina Panthers don’t want to rely on him as much as a runner, then he’ll have to seriously improve as a passer.

The other concern is a torn rotator cuff on his throwing shoulder that he had repaired in March. With the coaching staff wanting him to throw the ball more, many are worried that he might do more damage.

Give Cam the Rock

The Panthers really need to reconsider decreasing Newton’s rushing attempts.

Cam Newton fantasy football

Newton (Photo by: si.com)

Throughout his first six seasons in the NFL, he’s totaled 3,566 rushing yards with 48 touchdowns. That’s insane for a quarterback. In fact, in three of Newton’s six years (2011, 2012 and 2015), the Carolina quarterback has topped 120 fantasy points on rushing alone.

In his best rushing season (2011 rookie year), Newton had 154.2 fantasy points on the ground. In short, he would have been the No. 21 running back. In his first five seasons, he never dipped below 539 yards on the ground.

Besides the numbers, look at the man himself. The man is a freak athlete. He’s 6 feet, 5 inches at 245 pounds. And he can run the football. There aren’t many quarterbacks like him, that big, that can run like him.

2017 Outlook

The ceiling is high for Newton. But what he is expected to do is risky.

Cam Newton fantasy football

Newton (Photo by: nydailynews.com)

As before, they want him to pass the ball more. But that’s not his game. I don’t see him improving as a passer. I think when they see the issue he will run the ball himself more.

But there’s other reasons to be optimistic of Newton. The Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey. His ability to catch passes out of the backfield as well as split out wide when needed is going to be a welcomed sight for Newton’s fantasy value.

He may not see a heavy workload while splitting carries with Jonathan Stewart, as he’s the perfect third-down running back for Newton. He still has Olsen and Benjamin along with rookie Curtis Samuel and Devin Funchess. Not the best receivers but he has options though he lost his favorite deep target in Ginn.

Final Verdict

With all the hate, I still believe in Newton. Though there are risks. I wouldn’t draft him as high only because of the situation of him throwing the ball more.

He’s been getting a round eight draft position. In that case, there’ll be an opportunity to already have a loaded fantasy roster and just need to add a quarterback like Newton who can help you win it all. Newton’s ability to take over games and do special things, this can be second to none in the NFL when he’s on.

 

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Spencer Ware injury

Fantasy football situation: Spencer Ware’s injury

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without starting running back Spencer Ware this season due to a torn PCL with damage to his LCL. It was reported that despite all the damage, his ACL was still intact. Reports have confirmed that he will need season-ending surgery.

In his absence, Kareem Hunt has been confirmed as the Chiefs’ feature back. How will this affect Hunt’s fantasy stock along with the other runners in Kansas City?

The Value of Spencer Ware

Spencer Ware injury

Spencer Ware (Photo by: todayspigskin.com)

Ware became the starting running back for the Chiefs last season due to Jamaal Charles’ lingering knee problems. He set career highs in games played (14), rushing attempts (214), rushing yards (921), receptions (33) and receiving yards (447) in 2016. Ware looked to continue being the starter for 2017 after the departure of Charles.

Those career highs helped Ware finish as the No. 16 fantasy running back in standard leagues. He only had four great games with at least 16 fantasy points in a standard league. He also had 12 games with at least seven points, which showed he didn’t ruin your week even when he wasn’t dominant.

Even if he had Hunt looking over his shoulder, he would’ve had his touches. He was a low-end No. 2 option/high flex option in most leagues even splitting touches with the rookie.

Losing Ware leaves a heavy burden for the Chiefs offense to fill because of his power running style, shedding tackles and being aggressive running through the defense. Fantasy owners now should drop Ware with the most recent report with him missing the 2017 season.

The Value of Kareem Hunt

As reported, it looks as if Hunt will become the No.1 back. A lot of people raved of this rookie as he was in a battle for the starting job. He will still split touches with the other backs, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller.

But Hunt has a chance to thrive and become a star. Hunt profiles as a good receiver and should be efficient on the ground.

Spencer Ware injury

Kareem Hunt (Photo by: chiefswire.usatoday.com)

The Toledo product ran for 1,475 yards and 10 touchdowns on 262 carries as a senior. He also had 41 catches for 403 yards and one touchdown. Pro Football Focus’ draft analysis team offered this scouting report for Hunt prior to the draft:

“Hunt is a well-rounded player who was highly productive in college. He’s one of the most elusive running backs in the draft class. Hunt’s balance stands out from the pack and is at his best when in the open field. His skill set fits best in a zone-heavy offense, but can run any concepts. Toledo got him more involved in the passing game in his final year and showed significant improvement.”

With Ware out for the year, Hunt should be considered a high-end No. 2 fantasy running back, and he would be worth drafting in round 5 in most leagues.

Value of Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller

Charcandrick West has become relevant again as the primary backup. He has shown some potential when he’s been given a chance. The 26-year-old ran for 634 yards and four touchdowns on 160 carries in 2015.

However, when he became a backup, he didn’t fare well. His yards per carry dropped from 4.0 in 2015 to 3.3 in 2016, and he only carried the ball 88 times. But the Chiefs have given more than 500 touches to their running backs each of the past three seasons. West is worth a late-round flier in the majority of leagues as the handcuff for the Chiefs.

As for C.J. Spiller, he will make the team according to head coach Andy Reid, but it all depends on when he gets the ball. If he shines on his opportunities, he could get some more playing time. For the moment he’s a non-factor, but could be one of those wavier wire grabs in deeper leagues.

 

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Trevor Siemian's fantasy impact

Trevor Siemian’s fantasy impact on the Broncos skilled players

On Monday August 21, Denver Broncos head coach Vance Joseph named Trevor Siemian the starting quarterback for the regular season over Paxton Lynch.

What to expect from Siemian

When Siemian took over in 2016 after the retirement of Peyton Manning, he completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 3,410 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and ran for 57 yards in 14 starts. He did miss time and had surgery on his left, non-throwing shoulder in January. Siemian only had four games with at least 20 Fantasy points. Needless to say he won’t entice fantasy players to pick him in only one QB starting leagues.

Trevor Siemian's fantasy impact

Trevor Siemian (Photo by: chicagotribune.com)

But Siemian won this job with great reason. He’s more experienced. Siemian looked sharp through two preseason games, completing 14 of 18 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. And this is a new year for the Broncos with a new head coach in Joseph and a new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy who was the OC in Denver from 2009 to 2012. He helped the Broncos offense rank second in total offense in 2012. His passing offense ranked in the top-10 twice in that span. During his time as head coach for the San Diego, now Los Angeles Chargers, his passing offense ranked no worse then 12th. Granted most of the time they had to throw the ball coming from behind and he also had Philip Rivers. But this could benefit Siemian with the coaching changes.

Granted Siemian isn’t Manning or Rivers, but he proved last season he can move the offense when given protection. He doesn’t have a cannon, but he can make all the throws, get through his progression, and isn’t afraid to test defensive backs down the seam. But is this enough to trust him to help the other skill players in Denver?

Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders

The Broncos passed for an average of 230.3 yards per game last season, tying them for the 11th least passing yards per game in the league. While this news isn’t the greatest for the whole offense, it’s “good” news for both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

Trevor Siemian's fantasy impact

Demaryius Thomas and Emanuel Sanders (Photo by: numberfire.com)

First with Demaryius Thomas. Thomas had 90 catches for 1,083 yards and five touchdowns on 145 targets in 2016.  Thomas only had seven games with double digit fantasy points. He had career lows in receptions and yards per game at 5.6 receptions and 67 yards since becoming a full time starter in Denver.

Emmanuel Sanders had 73 passes for 1,032 yards and five touchdowns. on 139 targets. While these numbers are average, they weren’t standouts like they were in 2014. He only had four games with double digits. Sanders had eight games where he had less then five points.  Sanders also had his lowest stats, receptions and yards per game, at 4.9 receptions and 64.5 yards.

It isn’t like Thomas and Sanders are inconsistent. Thomas is working on five years in a row of at least 90 catches and 1,000 yards. Sanders went to the Pro Bowl in 2016 and had his third season in a row with at least 75 catches, 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. The main reason for the decline has been due to bad quarterback play. Now granted not all of it was bad quarterback play. Thomas dealt with a hip injury all season and the Broncos had a very inconsistent running game. Plus this was Siemian’s first year as a starter so it was expected they might struggle.

While this may all still to be true from a fantasy standpoint, there is reason for hope. Denver doesn’t really have any other viable receiving threats. These two could see an a rise in production as they develop more chemistry with Siemian.

The running backs

The 2016 Denver Broncos running game still proved to be irrelevant. C.J. Anderson struggled, only playing in seven games before an injury. He was off to a good start. Anderson had four games with at least 10 Fantasy points in a standard league in the seven games he was healthy, with five total touchdowns and three outings with at least 90 total yards. He will enter 2017 as the no.1 back and there’s good opportunity for him. Devontae Booker is on the shelf due to a wrist injury. Anderson was likely going to split carrries but now he can solidify his job. He could actually get more of a workload especially with the QB situation. But don’t expect a boost in Anderson’s rankings with the news of Siemian as the starter. Anderson is still a RB2 or a high flex option. The main thing to keep in mind is Anderson’s health.

Trevor Siemian's fantasy impact

CJ Anderson, Devonetae Booker, Jamaal Charles and Terrell Davis (Photo by: denverpost.com)

As for Jamaal Charles, his role is likely to work in a part-time role behind Anderson. He will enter behind him with Booker’s injury. He will get his touches and could get extended reps if Anderson has another injury. Charles will be a guy to look at on third downs for Siemian to dump the ball to.

Conclusion

Overall, Siemian’ only worth a late-round pick in two-quarterback leagues this year. But for the skilled players it helps their rankings a little bit having Siemian as the starter. While most fantasy players know this, Siemian, out of all the quarterback battles, has the best players and coaches around him. He could have a surprising season with these weapons. However, with new coaches and a new offense, I still think Siemian will have his tough outings. Don’t over reach for the skill players in Denver as inconsistent QB play is still in the air.

 

Featured image from denverbroncos.com.

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Fantasy Football Bold Predictions NFC West

Fantasy football bold predictions: NFC West

The preseason is here and so is fantasy football. We have seen endless articles making bold predictions on players, numbers and who are sleepers. This article and many coming are my 2017 fantasy football bold predictions starting with the the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals: Carson Palmer will Bounce Back in 2017

Headlined as a fantasy sleeper, Carson Palmer is a QB20 and picked towards the end of drafts.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions NFC West

Carson Palmer (Photo by: si.com)

In 2015, Palmer had one of the best seasons of his career. He finished in the top-five among quarterbacks in 2015 with 35 touchdowns and 4,600-plus yard season. He had receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, and the emergence of John Brown and Michael Floyd really helped Palmer.

But 2016 was the opposite. Even though he was 36 that season, the departure of Michael Floyd and the recurring illnesses of John Brown were not helpful. Besides that, Palmer hit a wall with efficiency.

His 8.7 yards per attempt in 2015 dropped down to 7.1. Another big part of the struggle was the breakout of David Johnson. But Palmer did have a good end of the season with at least 20 fantasy points in a standard leagues in six of his final nine games, and no outing with fewer than 17 points.

But in 2017 Palmer is back and fully focused. Brown is finally healthy and the emergence of J.J. Nelson to complement Larry Fitzgerald and with David Johnson in the backfield should help Palmer have a season like 2015.

Los Angeles Rams: Sammy Watkins will play a full season, but will not have over five touchdowns

Sammy Watkins was traded to the Los Angeles Rams on Aug. 11. There’s no worse situation to be in than the Rams. He is ranked as the 21st wide receiver and selected around the fourth to fifth round.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions NFC West

Sammy Watkins (Photo by: dailynews.com)

Watkins has missed 11 games over his last two seasons including eight in 2016 because of a foot injury that required multiple surgeries. The good news is that he’s healthy now. He should get the time to rest and learn the offense this preseason.

The bad news is now he’s with the LA Rams. Fantasy owners cringe now because of the situation. His quarterback is Jared Goff who was on the lower end of quarterbacks in 2016. Even though a rookie, he completed a miserable 54.5 percent of his passes, had a 5-to-7 TD/INT ratio and averaged 5.3 yards per attempt.

But for Watkins, he has averaged 0.46 touchdowns per game over his career. And while there’s hope for Goff, he has to learn a new offense and that doesn’t look good for either Goff or Watkins. Look for running back Todd Gurley to have a big role in Los Angeles.

Seattle Seahawks: Doug Baldwin will break into the top-five for wide receivers

Doug Baldwin checks in as the WR10 and ranked 29th overall among fantasy players. Baldwin hasn’t received a whole lot of love from a fantasy perspective. Maybe that’s because Seattle isn’t known as a passing team, but they have done better over the past two seasons. Last year, they ranked tied for 18th with 567 pass attempts. This was the first year Russell Wilson has thrown over 500 pass attempts.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions NFC West

Doug Baldwin (Photo by: ftw.usatoday.com)

But back to Baldwin. His target share in the last three years has been steady at 22, 21, and 22 percent respectively. He’s blossomed in his new No. 1 wide receiver role, delivering back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes in both standard and PPR formats. Baldwin’s eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in consecutive years, and he set a new single-season high of 1,128 yards last year.

His touchdown total however, dipped from 14 in 2015 to seven last year. But 21 touchdowns over the past two seasons is an impressive stat. With guys like Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas and Amari Cooper ranked right around Baldwin, his touchdowns over the past two seasons rank best out of all of them.

A key stat for Baldwin is in 2015, 95 percent of Baldwin’s yardage (1,011) and 93 percent of his touchdowns (13) came from the slot, per Next Gen Stats. In 2016, those percentages fell to 59 for yardage (662) and 57 for touchdowns (four). Baldwin proved he could win outside, posting a 78 percent catch rate and 15.36 yards per catch average when lined up out wide.

He has proven to be a top target for Seattle and I expect him to continue his dominance with the run game still in question. His only threat to take targets away is Jimmy Graham but that didn’t stop him in 2016.

San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde will run for over 1,000 yards

Carlos Hyde as of right now is being selected right around the third to fourth round. He is ranked as the 15th running back.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions NFC West

Carlos Hyde (Photo by: sfgate.com)

Hyde has had some problems staying healthy (14 games missed in three seasons). But when he’s on the field he’s one of the better backs in the league. He averaged a career-best 4.6 YPC on 217 carries last season and has ranked among the top 10 in the NFL in YAC each of the past two years.

He has been the best running back on his team in terms of success rate every year he’s been in the league, and just last season, only 10 running backs had more top-24 PPR performances and only 7 had more top-12 ones.

Hyde will be in a new offense in 2017 under Kyle Shanahan. He will fit his offense around the skillset of his personnel. With Cleveland in 2014, the team ran for five more touchdowns than they threw for. With the Atlanta Falcons, we saw Shanahan turn Devonta Freeman into a top fantasy running back in 2015. Granted in a better offense, Shanahan works well with running backs when the offense molds together.

Hyde finished 2016 ranked 18th in fantasy points in only 13 games, posting five top-10 weeks and nine touchdowns. He just missed 1,000 yards by 12 yards. There’s been a lot of hype around the backup Joe Williams. But he has been dominating training camp and Jon Lynch liked the shape Hyde was in as recently as late July.

 

Featured image from calvinayre.com.

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Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews fantasy value following trade

The Buffalo Bills had a busy Friday after trading their star wide receiver Sammy Watkins to the Los Angeles Rams for cornerback E.J. Gaines and picks. They quickly found their replacement, trading for receiver Jordan Matthews from the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for cornerback Ronald Darby. After these trades, how will Watkins and Matthews fantasy values change with their new teams?

Sammy Watkins to the Rams

The Rams finally get their No.1 wide receiver they have been searching for. While this trade helps the Rams in getting a top target, it may not help Watkins’ fantasy value.

Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews Fantasy Value After Trade

Sammy Watkins (Photo by: billswire.usatoday.com)

He goes from catching passes from Tyrod Taylor, an excellent deep-ball thrower, to catching passes from Jared Goff.

While Goff was a rookie last year, he really struggled in the seven games he played. Last year, he completed a miserable 54.5 percent of his passes, had a 5-to-7 TD/INT ratio and averaged 5.3 yards per attempt. Now he is learning a new offense under Sean McVay.

But for fantasy players, they can’t ignore the talent that Watkins has. He has per-16 game averages of 66 receptions, 1,063 yards and seven touchdowns. He can create separation in the middle of the field, but he’s also a truly dangerous deep threat, as evidenced by his career average of 16.1 yards per catch.

Watkins has true talent, but his career has been plagued with injuries. Watkins has missed 11 games over his last two seasons including eight in 2016 because of a foot injury that required multiple surgeries. But this year he is finally healthy.

As mentioned before, he will be the clear first option for the Rams and for that he won’t drop to far in drafts because of his role. But when you combine his injury concerns, with the fact that he’ll be playing with an inexperienced starting quarterback along with a new offense, there is major risk mixed in with that upside.

Watkins becomes a high-end WR3 around the fourth or fifth round rather than a mid-range WR2 in Buffalo.

Jordan Matthews to the Bills

After trading Watkins, the Bills found their replacement in Jordan Matthews from Philadelphia. Matthews would’ve been the second to third option in the slot in Philadelphia, but here in Buffalo he will line up both in slot and the outside as the new No. 1 receiver. This trade should increase his fantasy value.

As mentioned in Philly, he would have seen a decrease in targets. Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith were both brought in during the offseason, Zach Ertz is a steady target at tight end, Nelson Agholor is still hanging on a thread and rookie Mack Hollins looks like a legitimate talent.

Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews Fantasy Value After Trade

Jordan Matthews (Photo by: phillysportsnetwork.com)

Even though Buffalo isn’t a pass-heavy offense, Matthews should find increased targets. He will be lining up with veteran Anquan Boldin and rookie Zay Jones who are both slot receivers.

From 2014-16, these are the percentages of routes from the slot: Jones at 68.1 percent at East Carolina, Boldin at 70.4 percent and Matthews at 84.5 percent. Matthews will have a great opportunity to get the ball from Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is an emerging talent at quarterback totaling 37 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 7.4 yards per attempt over the last two years.

One problem that comes with any trade is how quick he can learn the offense. Like Watkins with the Rams, Matthews is in a new offense and where will he be lined up in the offense. I think he will be all over, especially with the receivers they have in Buffalo.

There is a lot of potential for Matthews. He is an interesting sleeper that will be taken around the eighth or ninth round. He will have a better situation from a fantasy perspective.

Who will do better in 2017?

Watkins is a young talent who was taken with the fourth pick back in 2014. Matthews is entering the prime of his career. With a better situation, Matthews will have the better fantasy season.

Watkins will have his moments, but an inexperienced quarterback and a very new offense for the young quarterback will cause problems. Where Watkins has thrived is catching passes over 20-yards. Goff isn’t known as a terrific deep-ball thrower. Goff completed 8/23 passes which traveled 15+ in the air last season, out of 205 attempts.

Matthews has the same issue with a new offense, but has an established quarterback with experience. This is a player who has per-16 game averages of 78 receptions, 930 yards and seven touchdowns through three seasons. Matthews has had at least 800 receiving yards in all three seasons, and he scored eight touchdowns in his first two campaigns and I expect him now to repeat this in Buffalo.

 

Featured image from wday.com

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