Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies outlook for the 2018 MLB season

Ozhaino “Ozzie” Albies will be one of the youngest players in the MLB next season, as he will turn 21 in January. The Curacao-born Albies will join the rising crop of Dutch infielders in the MLB a list that includes Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Schoop, Andrelton Simmons and 2017 playoff hero Didi Gregorius.

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Albies signed with the Atlanta Braves for $350,000 as an international free agent in 2013. According to Zach Dillard of Fox Sports, Albies was heavily influenced to sign with the Braves due to his personal connection with the aforementioned Simmons and Andruw Jones, who both are former Braves players and natives of Curacao.

As a 17-year-old in 2014, Albies was more than impressive, batting a combined .364 in 57 games in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. Heading into 2015, Albies was ranked within the top-100 prospects in baseball by Keith Law of Baseball Prospectus.

With heightened expectations, Albies did not disappoint, batting .310 with 29 extra-base hits and 29 stolen bases in 98 games. Albies was named to the All-Star Futures Games, where he was the youngest player to take the field. Unfortunately, he fractured his right thumb in early August, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2015 season.

He was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. In 138 games in Double and Triple-A, Albies batted a combined .292 with 49 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases.

He was invited to spring training once again in 2017, but was sent to triple-A as the Braves had a log jam in their middle infield with veteran Brandon Phillips at second base and first-overall pick Dansby Swanson at shortstop. In 97 games in Triple-A, Albies batted .285 with 48 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases.

2017 Season

Albies was called-up on August 1 and has since batted .286 with 20 extra-base hits and eight stolen bases in 57 games. This level of production would put Albies on pace to have 56 extra-base hits and 22 stolen bases.

He has an extraordinary 14.8 percent strike out rate and has made at least medium contact on 85 percent of batted balls, which are nearly identical figures to fellow middle infielders Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus.

2018 Outlook

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset, as even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with speed. (Photo by Getty Images)

In 2017, the 20-year-old spent the majority of his time batting second and seventh. It is assumed he will be used primarily in the top third of the lineup in 2018. Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset. Even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with his speed.

The Braves’ offense was very underrated in 2017, as they were ranked sixth in batting average and had the fourth fewest strikeouts. For fantasy purposes, batting in the top third of any lineup is great, but the Braves promise to be even more productive in 2018 with Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp and Ender Inciarte all healthy and returning.

The 2018 outlook for Ozzie Albies is incredibly bright. His draft stock is bound to increase by the day as we head toward the 2018 MLB season. The price for Albies will likely be between the 50th and 100th pick, depending on the draft date and league format. I will be buying plenty of Albies stock in 2018, will you?

 

 

 

 

 

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Injuries 2018 MLB season

Injuries to keep an eye on heading into the 2018 MLB season

With the ALCS and NLCS around the corner and the 2017 fantasy baseball season officially in the books, it is time to assess the 2018 outlook for the following four players. They are all currently injured with fairly loose time tables for return, but also could be impact players next season.

Jimmy Nelson, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Jimmy Nelson’s 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranks fourth in the MLB, only behind Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer. (Photo by The News and Observer)

Nelson quietly emerged as one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball this season.

Yes, you heard me correctly. Jimmy Nelson. His 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranked eighth in the MLB. Nelson also finished in the top 10 in K/9 (10.21) and xFIP (3.15) to go with a 3.49 ERA. In 175.1 innings, Nelson fell only one strikeout short of 200, which was a huge improvement from his prior career high of 148 in 177.1 innings.

According to fangraphs.com, Nelson’s curveball in 2017 was valued at 9.2, where a value of zero represents average, a positive value represents above average and a negative value represents below. To put this in better perspective, Clayton Kershaw’s curveball has been valued at a total of 63.8 over the course of his career, with a high of 16.5 and a yearly average of 7.2, although his curveball is currently valued at 6.4 in 2017. This shows that Nelson’s stuff is similarly effective to the likes of Kershaw.

The 28-year-old suffered a partially torn labrum and a strained rotator cuff after sliding back head-first into first base on September 8. He underwent surgery on September 19, which will undoubtedly set him back at the start of the 2018 season. According to MLB.com, Nelson shouldn’t be expected to return until midseason.

Nelson is well worth a flyer in fantasy drafts next season, as his price is sure to be discounted due to his long-awaited return.

Adam Eaton, Outfielder, Washington Nationals

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Adam Eaton tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 MLB season. (Photo by the Cincinnati Enquirer)

In his first season in Washington after being traded for prospect pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, Eaton had found himself in a fantasy friendly leadoff role. It was undeniable that he could score triple-digit runs and steal double-digit bases atop a loaded Nationals lineup.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 season.

Eaton was batting .297 with two home runs, three stolen bases and 14 walks through 23 games this season. His combination of speed, plate discipline, contact hitting and opportunity in the Nationals’ lineup push me to compare him to the likes of his former teammate A.J. Pollock.

Pollock is a career .286 hitter with a 162-game average of 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Eaton’s 162-game average is .284, 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases, showing that he offers similar value to Pollack a much cheaper price.

Early reports this season suggested that there would be a possibility for Eaton to return at the end of the 2017 season if the Nationals were to make a deep postseason run. However, the Nationals were eliminated in the NLDS and Eaton did not enter a game. This indicates that Eaton should be ready to go by the start of 2018, and by his own account according to the Washington Post, he plans to return “a better player for sure.”

Eaton’s confidence in himself is reassuring for his fantasy value moving forward, although the current outfield situation in Washington is not. Superstar Bryce Harper is locked into right field as long as he remains a National. Michael Taylor has emerged as much more than a depth outfielder after batting .271 with 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases in Eaton’s absence. Veteran slugger Jayson Werth was on pace for 23 home runs through 162-games, but was plagued with injuries. Top prospect Victor Robles has also shown that he is deserving of MLB at-bats.

It is uncertain if and to what extent Eaton will play in 2018. If he returns to an everyday role, he will reemerge to fantasy relevance once again.

Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Toronto Blue Jays

Injuries 2018 MLB Season

Troy Tulowitzki is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Tulowitzki was placed on the 60-day disabled list on August 6 after suffering ligament damage in his ankle. The 33-year-old played in only 66 games, slashing a career worst .249/.300/.378. Despite his clear struggles and lack of durability, manager John Gibbons told MLB Network Radio that they are committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop in 2018.

He is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. The once perennial National League MVP candidate has been reduced to a shell of his former self. In his three seasons as a Blue Jay, he has a combined .250 batting average and just 36 home runs in 238 games.

He spent the majority of the season batting either fifth or sixth. With the anticipated departure of Jose Bautista and the Josh Donaldson trade rumors, it is hard to identify where Tulowitzki will fit in the order or how productive the Blue Jays’ lineup can be.

His fantasy value moving forward is a conundrum, as no one knows what to expect at this point in his career. Will he resurrect his MVP form? Or will his skills and durability continue to diminish? Only time will tell, but his price on draft day in 2018 is sure to be a bargain.

Michael Conforto, Outfielder, New York Mets

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Prior to the injury, Michael Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.55 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. (Photo by NY Daily News)

Conforto underwent season ending surgery on September 6 to repair a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder. His anticipated return is around early March, although this only gives him a month to ramp up baseball activities before the start of the season in April, suggesting that he will miss the beginning of the 2018 regular season.

Prior to the injury, Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. This rate of production put Conforto on pace to hit 40 home runs and drive in 101 RBIs.

Whether he is in left, right or center field, Corforto is a lock to be in the Mets’ lineup. He has proven that he is not just a left-handed side of a platoon, but yet a budding superstar, as he was playing nearly everyday in July and August. However, he still only bats a career .180 against lefties, so be weary.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old is sure to be undervalued in fantasy circles next season. He is obviously coming off of an injury, but more importantly, he plays for the Mets, whose offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in runs, RBIs and batting average in 2017. With a healthy Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets could easily become a top-15 offense in 2018, making Conforto’s fantasy value rise immensely.

 

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Starling Marte 2018

Starling Marte’s outlook for the 2018 MLB season

After quite a controversial 2017 season, let’s assess Starling Marte’s outlook heading into the 2018 MLB season.

Background

Starling Marte 2018

In his 2013 rookie campaign, Marte was impressive, batting .280 with 12 home runs and 41 stolen bases in 135 games. (Photo by USA Today)

In 2007, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed a then 18-year-old Starling Marte for $85,000. He spent two seasons playing in the Dominican Summer League, improving his batting average from .220 to .290 during that timespan. Marte played the majority of his next two seasons in the South Atlantic and Florida State Leagues, batting .312 and .315 respectively with a total of 50 stolen bases in 114 games.

In 2011, Marte received the call-up to double-A Altoona, where he batted .332 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 129 games. He then went on to play 30 games in the Dominican Winter League, where he would continue to rake, batting .328.

Marte was first called to the majors in 2012 after a 99 game stint with triple-A Indianapolis, where he batted .286 with 12 home runs and 21 stolen bases. In his first major league action, Marte was fairly mediocre, batting just .257 in his first 47 games. He returned to the Dominican Winter League in 2012-13, where he once again found his stroke, batting .304 in 29 games.

In his 2013 rookie campaign, Marte was impressive, batting .280 with 12 home runs and 41 stolen bases in 135 games. His 2014 season was very similar, as he played an identical 135 games and batted .291 with 13 home runs and stole 30 bases. He continued to find success at the major league level in 2015 when he hit .287 with 19 home runs and stole 30 bases. Marte exemplified his .300 average, 20 home run and 40 stolen base potential.

In 2016, Marte batted .311, hit nine home runs and stole 47 bases in only 129 games. He won his second consecutive Gold Glove while also being voted an All-Star for the first time, showing that if healthy, he is capable of being an MVP candidate.

2017 Season

Starling Marte 2018

Marte’s 2017 campaign got off to a rocky start, as he was suspended 80 games in mid-April after testing positive for Nandrolone. (Photo by USA Today)

Marte’s 2017 campaign got off to a rocky start, as he was suspended 80 games in mid-April after testing positive for Nandrolone, a performance enhancing drug on Major League Baseball’s banned substance list.

Marte then released the following statement:

“I have been informed that I have tested positive in one of the tests that are regularly done in my job. In this very difficult moment I apologize to my family, the Pittsburgh Pirates, my teammates, my fans, and baseball in general. Neglect and lack of knowledge have led me to this mistake with the high price to pay of being away from the field that I enjoy and love so much. With much embarrassment and helplessness, I ask for forgiveness for unintentionally disrespecting so many people who have trusted in my work and have supported me so much. I promise to learn the lesson that this ordeal has left me. God bless you.”  

Marte returned to action after the All-Star break on July 18. He would go on to bat .282 with five home runs and 19 stolen bases the rest of the way, putting him on a 162-game pace to hit 13 home runs and steal 50 bases.

2018 Outlook

Starling Marte 2018

In fantasy terms, Marte could be a top-10 player in the majority of formats. (Photo by USA TODAY Sports)

The Pirates may be well out of contention this season, but with their core of Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison, they promise to be a productive offense heading into 2018. Marte will bat at the top half of the lineup next season, either leading off or batting second, which bodes well for fantasy value. He will be 29 years old at the start of next season, placing him within his prime. Marte will be a threat to bat .300 with double-digit home runs, triple-digit runs and fifty stolen bases.

In fantasy terms, Marte could be a top-10 player in the majority of formats, specifically ESPN standard formats, as they tend to value steals heavier than most. Keep your eye on Marte heading into next season, as his price could be discounted on draft day due to his suspension and the Pirates 2017 struggles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Rhys Hoskins MLB

Why Rhys Hoskins stands out among young MLB sluggers

The 2017 Major League Baseball season has been nothing short of astounding. On Tuesday, September 19th, the collective single season home run record was broken, as Kansas City Royal Alex Gordon mashed home run number 5,694 of the MLB season. On top of this amazing feat, the MLB has seen a rapid immergence of young power hitters, like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Joey Gallo and Rhys Hoskins, who would all on pace for over 45 home runs if they played a complete 162 game season. I’m here to tell you why Hoskins has been the most impressive of the bunch in 2017.

Background

Rhys Hoskins MLB

Hoskins’ standout season came in 2016, where in 135 triple-A games, he batted .281 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 95 runs scored. (Photo by Yahoo Sports)

Expectations weren’t immediately set high for Hoskins, who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. In low-A, he batted just .237, while striking out almost 20 percent of the time. Hoskins progressed in 2015, batting a combined .319 in 135 games in single and high-A.

His standout season came in 2016, where in 135 triple-A games, Hoskins batted .281 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 95 runs scored. Previous to this season, Hoskins was ranked the 11th best prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system by Baseball America, after, he was ranked sixth, behind only J.P. Crawford, Mickey Moniak, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Sixto Sanchez.

2017 Season

Rhys Hoskins MLB

Hoskins has been astonishing, batting .293 with 18 home runs, a record 11 coming in his first 64 at bats. (Photo by Rotoprofessor)

Hoskins began 2017 in triple-A, where he continued his minor league dominance, batting .284 with 29 home runs and 91 RBIs in 115 games. One of the most important attributes Hoskins possesses is plate discipline, as he had walked (64) nearly as many times (75) as he struck out in triple-A. His minor league success, along with Tommy Joseph’s struggles made a call-up for Hoskins inevitable.

So far in the big leagues, Hoskins has been astonishing. Through 41 games, he is batting .293 with 18 home runs, a record 11 coming in his first 64 at bats, 45 RBIs and 34 runs scored. He is penciled into the clean-up spot of a young Phillies lineup is trending in the right direction.

What separates Hoskins from the rest

Rhys Hoskins MLB

In terms of contact rates, Hoskins’ 48 percent hard contact would rank him first among MLB hitters, ahead of Gallo (46 percent), Judge (44 percent), Bellinger (43 percent) and Olson (42 percent). (Photo by Theintelligence.com)

An interesting analytic to look at this season is Hoskins’ BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, which represents how often a ball hit into play results in a hit. For hitters, this stat can be used to identify trends in performance. More specifically for Hoskins, his .264 BABIP suggests that he is getting very unlucky at the dish, as his BABIP in the past has consistently been above .280, most notably above .360 in 2015. To compare, New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is batting .277, although his BABIP is currently an exorbitant .355, suggesting that his batting average is fairly unsustainable. I understand that other factors like exit velocity need to be taken into consideration with BABIP, although Judge’s BABIP has been falling since June.

In terms of strikeout rate, Hoskins sits at a very respectable 20 percent compared to other young stars like Judge (31 percent), Bellinger (26 percent), Gallo (37 percent) and Olson (28 percent), who clearly struggle mightily with striking out. In counts were there is one ball and two strikes, Hoskins is batting an impressive .293, compared to Judge (.190), Bellinger (.188), Gallo (.112) and Olson (.144), exemplifying Hoskins’ pure ability, resilience, plate discipline and overarching mentality of not wanting to strikeout.

Getting on base is an integral part of baseball, and Hoskins is doing it better than almost anyone. He currently has a .425 on base percentage, putting him behind only Joey Votto in this category. Another impressive stat for Hoskins is his walk rate, as although he is not qualified due to a lack of at-bats, he would be ranked third in the MLB in walk rate behind only Votto and Judge. In terms of contact rates, Hoskins’ 48 percent hard contact would rank him first among MLB hitters, ahead of Gallo (46 percent), Judge (44 percent), Bellinger (43 percent) and Olson (42 percent).

I understand he does not qualify due to a lack of major league at-bats, although his 41-game sample size is nothing to scoff at. Calling him the next Paul Golschmidt or Joey Votto may sound crazy to some, but not to me. His stats are incredible and his analytics support growth and sustainability. If not already, Hoskins is bound to become a household name in major league baseball.

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Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Mitch Haniger is a must-add for your fantasy baseball playoffs

Background

Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Mitch Haniger was traded last November to the Seattle Mariners along with blossoming star Jean Segura. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Mitch Haniger was originally drafted out of high school by the New York Mets in the 31st round of the 2009 MLB draft, but he opted to attend Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo, California. The most notable player to come from Cal Poly is Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith.

In his freshman season, Haniger only played in 17 games. He began to become one of the more highly-touted college prospects after earning an every-day role his sophomore year. In his final collegiate season, he batted .346 with 13 home runs and 64 RBIs in 56 games. He was dominating the Big West Conference and MLB teams were taking notice.

At 21 years old, Haniger was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the first round of the 2012 draft. After failing to standout in low and high-A, Haniger was traded with former 10th-round selection Anthony Banda to the Arizona Diamondbacks for outfielder Gerardo Parra.

In 85 games at the triple-A level, Haniger batted .330 with 23 home runs, 70 RBIs and eight stolen bases. Haniger debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2016, where he played in 34 games and batted .229 with five home runs and 17 RBIs.

After an underwhelming start, he was subsequently traded last November to the Seattle Mariners along with blossoming star Jean Segura and former sixth-round pick Zac Curtis for former first-round pick Taijuan Walker and infielder Ketel Marte.

Haniger was deemed the everyday right fielder after slashing .406/.472/.719 in 32 at bats in spring training. He originally slotted into the two-hole for the Mariners, batting behind Segura and ahead of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. This spot helped Haniger become one of the most productive players in the MLB in April, as he was leading the Mariners in WAR at 1.8 and batting .342 with four home runs, 20 runs scored, 16 RBIs and two stolen bases.

 

Injuries

Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Haniger missed half of August due to a mild concussion, small nasal fracture and lacerated upper lip which occurred after being hit in the face by a Jacob deGrom fastball on July 29th. (Photo by NY Daily News)

Haniger is currently owned in only 18.6 percent of fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN.com, which is mainly due to his inability to stay on the field. He missed all of May and the beginning of June due to a strained oblique, which he suffered on April 25.

After returning on June 18, the 26-year-old clearly was feeling the lingering effects of the leg injury, as he only batted .176 in 68 at bats in July.

Most recently, he missed half of August due to a mild concussion, small nasal fracture and lacerated upper lip, which occurred after being hit in the face by a Jacob deGrom fastball on July 29.

 

Picking back up where he left off

Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Haniger is batting .455 with two home runs, five runs scored and six RBIs in his 18 games since returning. (Photo by the Seattle Times)

The Mariners outfielder returned from his facial and head injuries on August 19 and returned to his everyday role in right field. So far in September, Haniger is batting .455 with two home runs, five runs scored and six RBIs in 33 at bats.

In his 18 games since returning, Haniger’s lineup position has varied. He has batted second and fifth on four separate occasions, while batting sixth 10 times.

If he can continue to get at bats in the two-hole, his fantasy value will sky rocket. Haniger will be an integral piece to the Mariners success moving forward. If you need outfield depth, Haniger would be a perfect option for your fantasy baseball playoff run.

 

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What if players retained their eligibilities permanently?

In fantasy baseball, position versatility is integral. Players like Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Jose Ramirez and Paul DeJong are all eligible to start at three different positions in ESPN standard formats. Having players like them allows for maximum lineup adaptability, as you can move them seamlessly throughout your lineup to accommodate for injuries, off-days and cold streaks.

Superstars like Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman have acquired a secondary position eligibility in 2017, Rizzo with second base and Freeman with third. Both player’s project to be selected within the top two rounds of fantasy drafts in 2018, although now their value is further increased, as their versatility allows for further adaptations in draft strategy. In 2018, if your first-round pick is Paul Goldschmidt, you can be completely comfortable taking another primary first basemen, Rizzo or Freeman, in the second-round due to their versatility.

Be careful evaluating

position eligibilities

Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are in danger of losing important position eligibilities. (Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports)

Position eligibilities can be tricky and you have to be careful when evaluating a player’s versatility. In ESPN formats, a player needs to play a minimum of 10 games at a specific position to retain said eligibility.

Players to be weary of heading into 2018 include Kris Bryant, who has been used all over the diamond in 2017, but has only started one game in left field, Nelson Cruz, who has started 115 games at designated hitter and only five in right field, Travis Shaw, who has only started one game at first base and Javier Baez, who has started just seven games at third base.

Players failing to retain eligibility brings up the question, what if players retained their eligibilities permanently? What if I could start Victor Martinez or Josh Donaldson for that matter, at catcher, or maybe Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun at third base?

Thinking back

position eligibilities

Victor Martinez started 840 games behind the dish. (Photo by Sports Illustrated)

Victor Martinez started 840 games behind the dish and had a career batting average as a catcher of .300. As a designated hitter, he started 746 games, and had a career batting average of .291. According to the ESPN standard player rater, if Victor Martinez was catcher eligible this season, he would be ranked the 16th best catcher, which isn’t too interesting, although in 2016 he would have been ranked number two, just behind Jonathan Lucroy and ahead of Buster Posey.

Many forget but former MVP Josh Donaldson came up through the ranks as a catching prospect for the Oakland Athletics. Donaldson didn’t last at catcher, starting only eight games at the position, although in some fantasy leagues, it only takes five starts to become eligible at a position.

If Donaldson retained his catcher eligibility from 2010, he would have been the best fantasy catcher over the last five seasons. In 2016, Donaldson finished the year as a 9.25 on the ESPN standard player rater (PR), whereas the top catcher, Lucroy, finished as a 5.59. Even with Donaldson’s struggles in 2017, he would be ranked seventh if he were a catcher, compared to 21st as a third baseman. If players retained their eligibility, it would spice things up a bit, and I believe maybe for the better.

Ryan Zimmerman started over 1000 career games at third, while Ryan Braun started just north of 100, although if they both permanently retained their eligibilities, would it really benefit their fantasy value? Zimmerman is having a career year, batting .300 with 29 home runs, which are the highest marks of his career since his last Silver Slugger campaign in 2010. He is currently ranked as the seventh best fantasy first baseman, although if he were eligible at third, he would be ranked fifth, just behind Travis Shaw and Jose Ramirez. It is fair to say his value would increase slightly, although with first and third base having such rich player pools, it may not make such a significant difference.

In Braun’s case, he has been suffering through a multitude of injuries, causing his PR in 2017 to be 2.35, just below fellow banged-up outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who’s at 2.36. As a third baseman, Braun would rank 22nd, just behind former MVP Josh Donaldson at 2.81. Due to his injuries, Braun has been quite useless in fantasy terms, although with an extra eligibility, he could become quite useful depending on the circumstances.

I know, I know

Position Eligibilities

Many forget about Rick Ankiel’s struggles as a pithcer. (Photo by Getty Images)

It’s never going to happen, I know, and it shouldn’t, but we can say what ifs all day about position eligibility. What if Albert Pujols retained his first base, third base and left field eligibilities? What if Hanley Ramirez retained shortstop? What if Rick Ankiel retained his starting pitcher… okay never mind, I’ll stop now. I think eligibilities are one of the most interesting and impactful pieces of fantasy baseball that gets commonly over looked.

 

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Byron Buxton

Has Byron Buxton hit his stride?

Once touted by ESPN writer Thomas Neumann as being “poised for greatness”, former number one prospect in baseball Byron Buxton has not risen to stardom as quick as we had hoped.

Background

Byron Buxton

Former Minnesota Twins outfielder, four time All-Star and nine time Gold Glove winner Torii Hunter referred to Buxton as “Mike Trout 2” (Photo by Wikimedia Commons)

Former Minnesota Twins outfielder, four-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove winner Torii Hunter referred to Buxton as “Mike Trout 2” in an interview with Scott Miller of Bleacher Report in 2014.

This is quite a laughable comparison now, although at that time, Buxton had been deemed a “can’t-miss prospect” by a multitude of venerable sources.

The expectations that followed being selected as the second overall pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft have been insurmountable for Buxton, as his inability to stay on the field has significantly restricted his opportunity to improve.

In the midst of a great 2013 campaign, Buxton missed time with a shoulder injury. In 2014, the then 20-year-old spent multiple stints on the disabled list with a sprained wrist and later a season-ending concussion. Mix in a broken finger, thumb and strained hamstring and you have just a snippet of his documented injury history.

Buxton’s speed and fielding ability have allowed him to make some of the most jaw dropping plays we’ve ever seen, although his reckless play style clearly has impacted his health negatively. Although, the fact that none of his injuries seemed linked to one another, or the fact that they have not included significant ligament damage, suggest that he is not injury prone, but simply an aggressive and unlucky player.

The ups and downs

Byron Buxton

Buxton was struggling mightily to begin his major-league career, batting a mere .209 with only two home runs and two stolen bases in his first 46 games. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

His first stint of long-term success came in 2013, where as a 19-year-old, Buxton batted .334 with 12 home runs, 77 RBIs and 55 stolen bases in 125 games at the low and high A levels. After the aforementioned injuries in 2014, Buxton returned to form, batting a collective .305 with seven home runs, 45 RBIs and 22 stolen bases in 72 games in 2015 at the double and triple A levels.

Buxton was first called up to the Twins in mid-June of 2015. The 21-year-old Buxton was struggling mightily to begin his major-league career, batting a mere .209 with only two home runs and two stolen bases in his first 46 games.

Buxton began 2016 in triple-A, although after batting .305 with 11 home runs, 38 RBIs and 10 stolen bases in 49 games he was recalled. Over the next 92 games Buxton’s major league struggles would continue, as he batted only .225 with 10 home runs, 38 RBIs and 10 stolen bases while striking out at an atrocious 35.6 percent rate.

In 2017, Buxton was afforded another opportunity to prove himself as he began the season with Minnesota. His first half went as many expected, as the now 23-year-old Buxton had batted .216 with five home runs and 16 stolen bases in 79 games while striking out over 30 percent of the time.

Although, since July, the hype around Buxton has reemerged. He finished the first half red hot, batting .387 in 10 games in July. He has continued his success heading into the second half, as he is currently batting .351 in his last 18 games, while decreasing his strikeout rate to a more respectable 22.4 percent over that span.

Buxton was once given an overall rating of 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale, with a 70 hitting tool, 60 power and 80 running. His potential to become a superstar doesn’t seem likely, although he has once again grabbed our attention by being a top five fantasy outfielder over the past 15 days and top 25 over the past 30.

Concerns

Byron Buxton

The future for Buxton is bright, although I do not see him as the type of player that will help win fantasy championships in 2017. (Photo by ThreeSixty Journalism)

It is clear that Buxton has the potential to be a 20-home run/40-stolen base threat, although he undoubtedly has plenty left to prove. His inconsistency at the dish and inability to stay healthy are serious concerns.

Not to mention his BABIP in the second half is absurdly high at .425, which is obviously unsustainable and a concern moving forward. Also, he is batting primarily in the seven, eight and nine spots in the lineup, which limits his current fantasy value.

If he were to be moved back to the leadoff spot, which is where he was originally anticipated to be, his fantasy value would rise immensely.

The future for Buxton is bright, although I do not see him as the type of player that will help win fantasy championships in 2017. If he is on my dynasty roster, I would be excited for what the future holds. If I own Buxton in a keeper league format, I would be extremely skeptical of selecting him as one of my limited number of keepers, as I would not be comfortable taking the risk with all of his inconstancies and injury history heading into the 2018 season.

 

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Justin Upton

Justin Upton: The MLB’s hottest hitter

Background

Justin Upton

Justin Upton was selected as the number one pick in the 2005 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

The first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Justin Upton had extremely high expectations set from the start. He made his MLB debut in 2007, where he batted .221 with only two home runs and 11 RBIs in 43 games.

His struggles continued in 2008 as he was sent down to triple-A after batting .176 in both May and June. His potential began to reemerge after he was called up in late August, as he batted .276 with 21 hits in 22 games played.

2009 was Upton’s breaking party, as he set then career highs in batting average at .300, in home runs with 26 and RBIs with 86. He was voted an All-Star for the first time and was even recognized as a top-25 National League MVP candidate.

We have seen MVP-caliber levels from Upton on three occasions (2009, 2011 and 2014), although his 2011 campaign remains his most impressive. Upton played in a career-high 159 games, batted .289, hit 31 home runs, drove in 88 runners, scored 105 runs and stole 21 bases which resulted in a fourth-place finish in the American League MVP vote.

MVP Caliber once again

This year Upton’s average draft position was 76th according to ESPN.com. He has been a consistent fantasy player for his entire career, although his batting average had been on a steady decline since batting .289 with the Diamondbacks in 2011.

Now a 29-year-old veteran, Upton has acquired a second wind. He is currently batting .281 with 21 home runs, 77 RBIs and 67 runs scored. So far in the second half of the season, Upton is batting .337 with six home runs, 23 RBIs, 29 hits and a league best 11 doubles in 22 games played. Over a 162-season, he would be currently on pace to set career highs in home runs with 33 and RBIs with 121.

His BABIP is high at .351, although he is currently making 43.7 percent hard contact, which is the highest mark in his career. He also has an identical home run to fly ball rate as he did a season ago, at 18 percent, which makes his home run potential seem sustainable.

Fantasy value moving forward 

Justin Upton

Justin Upton is the hottest hitter in baseball in the second half. (Photo by Detroit Free Press)

Due to the departure of J.D. Martinez, and injuries, Upton has found himself batting primarily in the three-hole, which bodes well for his fantasy value. With 52 games left in the season for the Tigers, Upton will have ample opportunity to continue to climb the fantasy ranks.

With veterans Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler along with emerging star Nick Castellanos, the Tigers lineup remains one of the best on paper. They may be out of contention in the American League Central, but their offense should remain within the top-10.

Upton’s fantasy value moving forward should be similar to the likes of Andrew McCutchen, as they both are veteran center pieces of their offenses who offer 25 home run and 15 steal upside. He will likely be a top-75 pick once again in 2018.

 

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J.D. Martinez trade

Fantasy impact of the J.D. Martinez trade

On July 19th, the Detroit Tigers traded former All-Star J.D. Martinez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for three prospect infielders, Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

Background

Fantasy impact J D Martinez trade

During Martinez’s first three years in Houston, his per 162 game average was .251, 15 home runs and 81 RBI (Photo by Getty Images)

The former 20th round pick by the Houston Astros has palpably out performed expectations. During his first three years in Houston, his per 162 game average was .251, 15 home runs and 81 RBI.

In his four seasons in Detroit, Martinez batted .300, while averaging 35 home runs and 100 RBI per 162 games. The 29-year-old is currently batting .302 with 16 home runs, 38 runs scored and 39 RBI in 58 games played.

Since teaming up in Detroit with first ballot Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera, as well as All-Stars Victor Martinez, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler, Martinez has reinvented himself as a player. He exclaims that “[he] learned so much just from watching them and picking their brains, and it really did help,” (, Detroit Free Press). The largest analytical change with Martinez was his increased hard contact rates

Now on the move to Arizona, Martinez will become one of the veterans in the group. His offensive production will be vital to the Diamondbacks success, as even though they are already an elite offense, they are in the only division in which three teams have over a 57 percent winning percentage.

Impact of the NL West

Fantasy impact J D Martinez trade

Martinez will inevitably face super stars Clayton Kershaw (Photo by Washington Times)

A move to the National League West will be beneficial to Martinez due to Park Factors. “Park Factor(s) compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher” (ESPN).

His new home ball park of Chase Field ranks second in runs with 1.202 and third in home runs with 1.306, which favors heavily him compared to his former home stadium, Comerica Park which ranks 12th and 10th respectively, which only favored him slightly.

Other parks in the NL West that will benefit Martinez’s production include Coors Field, which ranks first in runs and third in home runs, and Dodgers Stadium, which ranks 15th in runs and 11th in home runs.

One negative when it comes to the move to the NL West is that he will need to play six games in San Francisco and three in San Diego, as their ball parks rank both rank heavily in the pitchers’ favor in terms of runs and home runs.

Also, Martinez will inevitably face superstars Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner, although he is batting .293 on the career and .474 this season against south paws.

Impact of the Diamondbacks’ lineup

Martinez will go from the 11th most productive offense in the MLB to the sixth, which should boost his counting stats a bit. He will slide into the five spot in the lineup behind MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt and budding stars Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock and David Peralta.

Martinez’s RBI production is sure to skyrocket as each of the aforementioned players are batting above .275 with an on-base percentage of at least .340 this season.

Injury history

Fantasy impact J D Martinez trade

J.D. Martinez is suffering from a hand contusion after being hit by a pitch (Photo by Charlotte Observer)

Currently, Martinez is suffering from a hand contusion after being hit by a pitch. He is listed on the injury report as day-to-day, as they expect him to return to action during the weekend of July 22. So far in 2017 alone, Martinez has also suffered foot and back injuries, although when healthy, he is clearly an All-Star caliber player.

He has only totaled 125 games or more in one season, which he played in 158 games and was voted an Al-Star and Silver Slugger, while finishing 15th in the AL MVP vote.

Long-term fantasy impact

The long-term fantasy impact for Martinez is trending upward. He is on the final leg of his two-year, $18.5 million contract, and if he were to resign with Arizona, he is sure to be a top-10 outfielder. He will continue to offer elite four-category contributions in batting average, home runs, runs and RBIs.

If he were to sign elsewhere, he would remain an elite fantasy option, although being in Arizona elevates his fantasy ceiling to new heights.

 

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One hit wonder MLB seasons

One-hit wonder MLB seasons since 2000

In Major League Baseball, players often breakout seemingly out of nowhere. The question then follows: Will their production continue, or will they simply fade away back to obscurity?

Methodology

In music, the term “one-hit wonder” refers to an artist who creates a song that ranks on the Billboard’s national top 40 list, while failing to recreate another with the same level of success. In baseball, we can label a player as a “one-hit wonder” if they experience a breakout season and are unable to recreate anywhere near the same level of success. In this case, success can be measured in accolades and wins above replacement player, or WAR.

For hitters, we will look at statistics like offensive WAR and accolades like MVP candidacy, Silver Slugger awards and All-Star appearances. For pitchers, we will assess the same group of statistics and awards, while also looking at Cy Young candidacies.

The main criteria used to compile the following list includes a blatant discrepancy between a player’s total career WAR and their WAR over a specific breakout season. Yearly awards are also taken into consideration, as a player can be considered a one-hit wonder if they finish within the top-25 voting for most valuable player, or MVP, while failing to ever do so again.

The following players combined make up the all “one-hit wonder” MLB team of the 2000’s. Note that being on this list does not mean the player had a bad career, but means they had a season that was a blatant anomaly.

Honorable mentions include: Angel Berroa (2003), Morgan Ensberg (2005) and Dontrelle Willis (2005)

Paul Lo Duca, Catcher, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2001

2001 Stats 125 G 25 HR 90 RBI 71 R .320/.374/.548
162 Game Avg. 162 G 12 HR 72 RBI 72 R .286/.337/.409
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Paul Lo Duca may be a three time All-Star from 2003-2006, but his most productive season came in 2001. (Photo by Getty Images)

Lo Duca was a 25th round draft pick by the Dodgers in 1993. He grinded through the minors, playing a total of 718 games at three different minor league levels.

He expected to get a shot at the everyday catcher’s job in 1998 after the Dodgers traded away arguably the greatest hitting catcher of all time, Mike Piazza, to the Florida Marlins.

Although this was not the case, as the Dodgers received catcher Charles Johnson in return. This delayed Lo Duca’s first full MLB season until 2001.

In 2001, Lo Duca showed out, batting .320 while hitting a career-high 25 home runs with 90 RBIs in only 125 games. His offensive WAR measured 4.2, which was considerably higher than any other season, as his second-highest offensive WAR came the following season at 2.9.

Although Lo Duca made four consecutive All-Star appearances from 2003-2006, 2001 was the only season where he ranked within the top-25 in National League MVP voting at 19.

 

Darin Erstad, First Baseman, Anaheim Angels, 2000

2000 Stats 157 G 25 HR 100 RBI 121 R 28 SB .355/.409/.541
162 Game Avg. 162 G 12 HR 68 RBI 89 R 18 SB .282/.336/.407

Erstad may be one of the most obvious MLB players to have a one-hit wonder season. After being selected as the first overall pick in the 1995 draft by the California Angels, Erstad made a quick jump to the majors in 1996 after playing in only 143 games at four different minor league levels.

Erstad’s breakout came in 2000, as he managed to bat a miraculous .355 while hitting 25 home runs, scoring 121 runs and setting an MLB-record for most RBIs by a leadoff hitter with 100. It looks as if this record will be shattered by either the Houston Astros George Springer or the Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon this season, although it remains incredible feat either way.

In his 26-year-old season, Erstad ranked eighth in American League MVP voting while also being named an AL All-Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner. His offensive WAR during this season totaled 5.6, which accounted for over 30 percent of his total offensive WAR over his 14-year career.

Junior Spivey, Second Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 

2002 Stats 143 G 16 HR 78 RBI 103 R 11 SB .301/.389/.476
162 Game Avg. 162 G 17 HR 71 RBI 91 R 11 SB .270/.354/.436
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Junior Spivey’s career was short but was in MVP conversation in 2002. (Photo by Getty Images)

Spivey’s 2002 season matches up fairly evenly with his 162-game average, although he only managed to play in over 100 games in a season twice, as he only tallied 457 career games played in the major leagues.

 

In 2002, Spivey set career-highs across the board in home runs, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, stolen bases, walks and runs scored.

He managed to make his first and only All-Star team while also finishing the year 14th in National League MVP voting. His offensive WAR totaled 4.3, which is over 50 percent of his total career offensive WAR, which totals 7.3.

 

Chase Headley, Third Baseman, San Diego Padres, 2012

2012 Stats 161 G 31 HR 115 RBI 95 R 17 SB .286/.376/.498
162 Game Avg. 162 G 15 HR 69 RBI 72 R 4 SB .263/.343/.399

The current New York Yankee has been an above-average player for his entire career, as in each of his ten seasons, he has tallied an offensive WAR above one. It was Headley’s 2012 season that makes him one of MLB’s one-hit wonders of the 2000’s.

In his fourth season as a full-time starter, the former second-round pick flourished, batting .286 with 31 home runs, 115 RBI, 95 runs and 17 stolen bases. Headley managed to win a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, while also finishing fifth in the National League MVP vote. His offensive WAR of 6.5 in 2012 makes up for over 25 percent of his total career offensive WAR of 24.2.

Rich Aurilia, Shortstop, San Francisco Giants, 2001 

2001 Stats 156 G 37 HR 97 RBI 114 R .324/.369/.572
162 Game Avg. 162 G 18 HR 74 RBI 73 R .275/.328/.433
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Rich Aurilia’s 2001 season remains a massive anomaly compared to the rest of his career. (Photo by Getty Images)

Aurilia mustered up some productive years, but nothing like his 2001 campaign. In his lone All-Star season, Aurilia led the league in hits with 206, 37 of which went for home runs. In 2001, he batted .324 with 114 runs scores and 97 RBIs.

At 29 years old, Aurilia managed to earn a Silver Slugger while also being voted 12th in the National League MVP race. His offensive WAR in 2001 totaled 6.3, which is 33 percent of his 15-year career total offensive WAR of 18.9. His second most productive offensive season came the year before in 2000, where he totaled an offensive WAR of 2.2.

 

Lew Ford, Left Fielder, Minnesota Twins, 2004

2004 Stats 154 G 15 HR 72 RBI 89 R 20 SB .299/.381/.446
162 Game Avg. 162 G 11 HR 55 RBI 73 R 15 SB .268/.345/.399

Former 12th round pick by the Boston Red Sox, Ford was traded to the Twins in 2000 for a veteran reliever. Ford played 230 games in the minors for Minnesota, batting .297 with 24 home runs and 124 RBI before being called up in 2003.

It was Ford’s 2004 campaign that puts him on the map of one-hit wonder seasons. Ford batted .299 with 15 home runs, 72 RBIs, 89 runs and 20 stolen bases in 154 games.

In his first full major league season, the 27-year-old finished 24th in the American League MVP vote. His offensive WAR in 2004 was 3.3, which is about 64 percent of his career offensive production, as his total career offensive WAR is 4.9.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Center Fielder, Boston Red Sox, 2011

2011 Stats 158 G 32 HR 105 RBI 119 R 39 SB .321/.376/.552
162 Game Avg. 162 G 14 HR 68 RBI 98 R 46 SB .285/.341/.418
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 campaign resulted in a second place finish in the AL MVP race. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Before joining the “Evil Empire”, Ellsbury enjoyed plenty of success as a part of the Boston Red Sox, winning two championships in 2007 and 2013. However, many tend to forget how outlandish his lone All-Star season was in 2011.

At 27 years old, Ellsbury batted .321 with 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 119 runs scored and 39 stolen bases. He won a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and finished second in the American League MVP vote behind the Detroit Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander.

There was one occasion in 2013 in which Ellsbury finished within the top-25 in MVP voting, although the numbers he was putting up were nowhere close to his 2011 campaign. His offensive WAR in 2011 registered at 7.4, which accounts for 28 percent of his total offensive production over his 11-year career, whereas his offensive WAR in 2013 measured in at only 4.1.

Carlos Quentin, Right Fielder, Chicago White Sox, 2008 

2008 Stats 130 G 36 HR 100 RBI 96 R 7 SB .288/.394/.571
162 Game Avg. 162 G 30 HR 95 RBI 81 R 2 SB .252/.347/.484

Quentin’s 162 game average is very respectable, although due to the fact that he only played in at least 130 games in a season twice, he finds himself as the starting right fielder of the one-hit wonder team of the 2000’s. The former first-round pick managed to hit 154 home runs and 491 RBIs over his nine-year career, although the majority of his offensive production came in 2008.

Quentin finished his 25-year-old season with a career-best .288 batting average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI and 96 runs scored. His offensive WAR of 5.3 accounts for exactly one third of his total career offensive production. If Quentin could stay healthy, he doesn’t end up on this list.

Mark Prior, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs, 2003

2003 Stats 30 GS 18-6 W-L 2.43 ERA 1.10 WHIP 245 K 211.1 IP
162 Game Avg. 34 GS 13-9 W-L 3.51 ERA 1.23 WHIP 243 K 211 IP
One hit wonder MLB seasons

Mark Prior’s career was cut tragically short due to a slew of injuries. (Photo by ESPN.com)

Prior was drafted 43rd overall by the Yankees in 1998, but decided to forgo and attend the University of Southern California instead. Three years later, he was selected second overall by the Cubs in the 2001 draft.

He made his major league debut in May of 2002, and finished the season with a 6-6 record, 3.32 ERA and 147 Ks in 116.2 innings pitched. In 2003, Prior officially broke out, recording an 18-6 record with a 2.43 ERA and 245 strikeouts.

He was voted an All-Star for the first and only time, while finishing third in the National League Cy Young and ninth in the NL MVP vote.

Prior’s career was derailed by multiple injuries including a broken ankle, broken elbow, torn labrum and torn rotator cuff, which caused him to retire at just 25 years of age in 2006.

His career WAR over five seasons is 15.7, although a good bit of his production occurred in 2003, where his WAR totaled 7.4.

John Axford, Closer, Milwaukee Brewers, 2011 

2011 Stats 74 G 46 SV 1.95 ERA 1.14 WHIP 86 K 73 IP
162 Game Avg. 68 G 20 SV 3.68 ERA 1.41 WHIP 74 K 65 IP

After being drafted in the seventh round in 2001, Axford decided to forgo the draft and attend the University of Notre Dame. He was then selected in the 42nd round by the Cincinnati Reds in 2005, although he did not sign. After spending a season with the Yankees, Axford made a move to Milwaukee where he would be until 2013.

Axford spent three full seasons as the Brewers’ primary closer, although his 2011 campaign was unparalleled to any other. He recorded 46 saves, a 1.95 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 73 innings pitched. His WAR in 2011 totaled 2.3, which accounts for over 50 percent of his nine-year career WAR of 4.2.

 

Featured image by Ed Betz of MLB.com

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