Domingo Santana fantasy

Domingo Santana fantasy: By the numbers

Domingo Santana broke out in 2017, finishing as a top-20 outfielder in standard ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, ahead of players like Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Andrew Benintendi and Andrew McCutchen. Was Santana’s 2017 season a fluke, or a sign of what’s to come?

Background

Domingo Santana fantasy

Domingo Santana was traded to the Houston Astros in a multi-player deal that sent All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence to Philadelphia. (Photo from Wikipedia.com)

Santana originally signed with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009 as an international free agent. After three mediocre minor league seasons in low and single-A, Santana was traded to the Houston Astros in a multi-player deal that sent All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence to Philadelphia.

In his first full minor league season with Houston, Santana batted .302 with 23 home runs, 87 runs scored and 97 RBIs in 119 games in high-A. He was promoted to double-A in 2013 and batted .252 with 25 home runs, 72 runs scored and 64 RBIs in 112 games. Although there was a bit of regression in his batting average and BABIP from 2012 to 2013, the Astros felt enough comfort to continue Santana’s ascension through the minors.

In 2014, Santana played 120 games with the triple-A Oklahoma City Red Hawks, where he would bat .296 with 16 home runs, 63 runs scored and 81 RBIs. His first major league action came in 2014, but in his six games and 18 plate appearances, Santana failed to record a hit and struck out 77.8 percent of the time.

Santana began his 2015 campaign in Oklahoma City. After 75 games played with a .320 batting average and 16 home runs, the Astros decided to trade the then 22-year-old and others to the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Mike Fiers and All-Star outfielder Carlos Gomez. Santana continued his success that season, batting .380 with 18 RBIs in the remaining 20 games of the season with the triple-A Colorado Springs Sky Sox.

In 2016, Santana began the year in the major leagues with Milwaukee, but only played in 77 games due to right elbow and shoulder injuries that landed him on the disabled list on two separate occasions. Santana went on to bat .256 with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs, putting him on a 162-game pace to hit 23 home runs with 67 RBIs.

2017 season 

2017 will be considered Santana’s breakout campaign. In 151 games, a 24-year-old Santana batted .278 with 30 home runs, 88 runs scored, 85 RBIs and 15 stolen bases. He managed to finish as a top-20 fantasy baseball outfielder and can be considered one of the biggest draft steals of the season.

Among qualified batters, Santana’s BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, ranked sixth highest with .363, and his strikeout rate ranked ninth worst at 29.3 percent. Out of the four professional seasons in which Santana played in over 100 games, he has registered a BABIP of at least .316 and strikeout rate above 28 percent. Santana fits in perfectly in this new era of baseball where sluggers are not afraid to strikeout, as guys like Aaron Judge (30.7), Khris Davis (29.9), Eric Thames (29.6) and Justin Upton (28.3) all managed to hit 30 or more home runs while striking out at least 28 percent of the time.

2018 outlook

Domingo Santana fantasy

Domingo Santana batted .278 with 30 home runs, 88 runs scored, 85 RBIs and 15 stolen bases in 2017. (Photo by AP Photo/Tom Lynn)

Due to his unproven track record and playing in Milwaukee, Santana’s cost is sure to be discounted on draft day. Do I think he will hit 30 home runs again? No, as his 30.9 home run to fly ball rate seems unsustainable, as it ranked third in the MLB behind only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Do I think he will steal 15 bases again? Yes, as Milwaukee has finished within the top two in stolen bases in the last two seasons, suggesting that Santana will have no problem swiping double-digit bags.

Do I think he can score and drive in over 80 runs? Yes, as he spent the majority of the season batting fifth, and even spent seven of his last 23 games batting second. This suggests that Milwaukee will use Santana in multiple fantasy friendly spots in the top half of their lineup in 2018.

Finally, do I think he can bat above .275? No, as his BABIP ranked sixth highest in the MLB at .363, suggesting that luck was on his side in 2017. I understand his medium and hard contact rates are impressive at 39.7 percent and 48.6 percent respectively, but I anticipate pitchers to continue to make adjustments, as Santana batted .291 in the first half, and just .262 in the second.

Overall, I think Santana will be a solid fantasy asset and will finish the year batting around .260 with 25 home runs, 80 runs scored, 80 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. In my mind, he will finish as a top-40 outfielder in 2018. Feel free to let me know your thoughts on Domingo Santana and his outlook heading into the 2018 MLB season.

 

Featured image by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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Trey Mancini fantasy

Trey Mancini fantasy: Tale of the tape

Trey Mancini emerged as one of the league’s premier power threats in 2017. In this piece, I will discuss his past and present performance, as well as my expectations moving forward.

Background

Trey Mancini fantasy

Trey Mancini was an eighth-round selection out of the University of Notre Dame by the Baltimore Orioles in 2013. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Mancini was an eighth-round selection out of the University of Notre Dame by the Baltimore Orioles in 2013. That year, a then 21-year-old Mancini played 68 games with low-A Aberdeen in the New York-Pennsylvania League. He rose through the minor leagues at a steady pace, playing in high-A in 2014, double-A in 2015 and triple-A in 2016. After 483 games in four minor league seasons, Mancini totaled 189 extra-base hits and 275 RBIs while slashing .306/.357/.472.

In 2016, the then 24-year-old Mancini made his major league debut. In just five games, he managed to hit three home runs and drive in five RBIs. It wouldn’t be long until we saw what he was capable of at the next level.

2017 season

Mancini’s 2017 campaign exceeded most expectations. The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder was an American League All-Star snub after failing to place within the top-15 in outfield voting despite batting .312 with 14 home runs, 15 doubles and 44 RBIs in 74 games in the first half. Carlos Beltran, future Hall of Famer and fan favorite, was the seventh leading vote getter for American League outfielders, even though he batted .227 with just 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in the first half.

Mancini eventually cooled off, batting a respectable .276 with 10 home runs, 11 doubles and 34 RBIs the rest of the way. He concluded 2017 with a .293 batting average, 24 home runs, 54 extra-base hits and 78 RBIs.

He spent the majority of the season batting fifth or sixth, as he had more than 50 at-bats in each lineup spot. Among qualified batters, Mancini registered the 13th highest batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, at .352 and managed to make at least medium contact on 80 percent of his batted balls.

2018 outlook

Trey Mancini fantasy

Trey Mancini’s raw power and contact rates show he is capable of being a catalyst in the heart of an order. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Mancini looks to be an integral piece to the Orioles’ puzzle moving forward. His raw power and contact rates show he is capable of being a catalyst in the heart of an order.

Despite the Orioles’ struggles (75-87), they ranked fifth in home runs (232) and eighth in batting average (.260) in 2017. In a lineup alongside Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini is sure to be a run-producing machine.

His first base and leftfield eligibilities further enhance his fantasy value, as versatility is key, especially in leagues that use individual outfield positions.

In my estimation, Mancini will be a border-line .300 hitter with a 30-plus home run upside. I am confident he will be drafted within the top-100, although I would be comfortable drafting him within my top-60 selections in 2018.

 

 

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Eddie Rosario 2018

Eddie Rosario’s outlook for the 2018 MLB season

Background

Eddie Rosario 2018

Eddie Rosario began 2015 with Triple-A Rochester, and was given a call to the majors in May. (Photo by Paul Sancya)

Eddie Rosario was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft by the Minnesota Twins. The Puerto Rican international began his professional career in rookie ball, where he would spend two seasons, batting a combined .318 with 26 home runs, 105 runs scored, 86 RBIs and 39 stolen bases in 118 games.

The Twins felt no need to rush Rosario through the ranks, as he spent nearly the entire 2012 season with the Single-A Twins affiliate, the Beloit Snappers. Rosario continued to impress, batting .296 with 12 home runs, 60 runs scored, 70 RBIs and 11 stolen bases in 95 games. Rosario’s combination of speed, power and plate discipline had begun to show.

His 2013 campaign was split between High and Double-A, where he would bat a combined .302 with 10 home runs, 80 runs scored, 70 RBIs and 10 stolen bases in 122 games. Unfortunately, the then 21-year-old Rosario was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for a banned substance.

Rosario’s 2014 season began in May. After bouncing around between High and Double-A, Rosario recorded an underwhelming .243 batting average with eight home runs, 45 runs scored, 40 RBIs and nine stolen bases in 87 games. Adversity struck Rosario hard at an inopportune time, as he seemed nearly inches away from an MLB call-up before the suspension and his struggles in 2014.

Rosario began 2015 with Triple-A Rochester, and was given a call to the majors in May after batting a measly .242 with three home runs, 11 runs scored, 12 RBIs and one stolen base in 23 games. In his first major league action, the then 23-year-old Rosario batted .267 with 13 home runs, 60 runs scored, 50 RBIs and 11 stolen bases in 122 games and was voted sixth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.

Even though he had a solid 2015 season, he struggled at the start of the 2016 season. The Twins sent him back to Triple-A, where he would bat .319 with seven home runs, 14 doubles, 26 runs scored, 25 RBIs and five stolen bases in 41 games.

Rosario was re-called to the MLB in July and remained with the team. In his second year of major league action, he batted .269 with 10 home runs, 52 runs scored, 32 RBIs and five stolen bases in 92 games. Although Rosario was already an everyday player, it was clear that at this point in his career, he had not yet fulfilled his potential just yet.

2017 season

The 2017 MLB season served as Rosario’s breakout campaign. To begin the year, Rosario was being displaced up and down the lineup, as he spent over 20 games in the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth batting positions in the order to end the year.

In the first half of the season, Rosario batted .287 with 10 home runs, 37 runs scored, 26 RBIs and four stolen bases in 81 games. To this point, Rosario was one of the Twins’ most reliable players, but his second half propelled his worth to new heights.

In 70 games after the All-Star break, Rosario batted .292 with 17 home runs, 42 runs scored, 52 RBIs and five stolen bases. Rosario became a major catalyst in the Twins lineup, finishing the year with an offensive WAR of 2.7, which was good enough for third on the team behind only Brian Dozier (4.9) and Miguel Sano (3.1).

In 2017, Rosario slashed .290/.328/.507 with 27 home runs, 79 runs scored, 78 RBIs and nine stolen bases. He failed to receive an MVP vote, but his contributions to the Minnesota Twins were duly noted.

2018 outlook

Eddie Rosario 2018

Eddie Rosario will be just 26-years-old at the start of next season. (Photo by Wikipedia.com)

Rosario’s 2018 outlook is interesting. Up until 2017, Rosario had failed to put together a complete season where he would live up to expectations, as he set the bar high for himself in the minors.

His lack of track record is nerve racking, as this was his first major league season where he would play in over 125 games, hit over 13 home runs and strikeout under 24 percent of the time. His home run to fly ball rate measured 16.4 percent, which doesn’t seem sustainable, as he has never before had a major league season with a HR/FB rate of over 12 percent.

A positive sign for Rosario moving forward is his consistent batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, which has measured in at over .312 in all three of his MLB seasons, which ranks above average in terms of MLB batters. Rosario will be given all the opportunity in the world in 2018, as he will presumably bat in the heart of the Twins lineup, surrounded by the aforementioned Dozier and Sano.

His fantasy ceiling seems to be reached. However, if he can repeat his 2017 campaign, he will be an incredibly valuable fantasy asset moving forward, as he will be just 26-years-old at the start of next season.

 

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Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies outlook for the 2018 MLB season

Ozhaino “Ozzie” Albies will be one of the youngest players in the MLB next season, as he will turn 21 in January. The Curacao-born Albies will join the rising crop of Dutch infielders in the MLB a list that includes Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Schoop, Andrelton Simmons and 2017 playoff hero Didi Gregorius.

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Albies signed with the Atlanta Braves for $350,000 as an international free agent in 2013. According to Zach Dillard of Fox Sports, Albies was heavily influenced to sign with the Braves due to his personal connection with the aforementioned Simmons and Andruw Jones, who both are former Braves players and natives of Curacao.

As a 17-year-old in 2014, Albies was more than impressive, batting a combined .364 in 57 games in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. Heading into 2015, Albies was ranked within the top-100 prospects in baseball by Keith Law of Baseball Prospectus.

With heightened expectations, Albies did not disappoint, batting .310 with 29 extra-base hits and 29 stolen bases in 98 games. Albies was named to the All-Star Futures Games, where he was the youngest player to take the field. Unfortunately, he fractured his right thumb in early August, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2015 season.

He was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. In 138 games in Double and Triple-A, Albies batted a combined .292 with 49 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases.

He was invited to spring training once again in 2017, but was sent to triple-A as the Braves had a log jam in their middle infield with veteran Brandon Phillips at second base and first-overall pick Dansby Swanson at shortstop. In 97 games in Triple-A, Albies batted .285 with 48 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases.

2017 Season

Albies was called-up on August 1 and has since batted .286 with 20 extra-base hits and eight stolen bases in 57 games. This level of production would put Albies on pace to have 56 extra-base hits and 22 stolen bases.

He has an extraordinary 14.8 percent strike out rate and has made at least medium contact on 85 percent of batted balls, which are nearly identical figures to fellow middle infielders Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus.

2018 Outlook

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset, as even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with speed. (Photo by Getty Images)

In 2017, the 20-year-old spent the majority of his time batting second and seventh. It is assumed he will be used primarily in the top third of the lineup in 2018. Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset. Even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with his speed.

The Braves’ offense was very underrated in 2017, as they were ranked sixth in batting average and had the fourth fewest strikeouts. For fantasy purposes, batting in the top third of any lineup is great, but the Braves promise to be even more productive in 2018 with Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp and Ender Inciarte all healthy and returning.

The 2018 outlook for Ozzie Albies is incredibly bright. His draft stock is bound to increase by the day as we head toward the 2018 MLB season. The price for Albies will likely be between the 50th and 100th pick, depending on the draft date and league format. I will be buying plenty of Albies stock in 2018, will you?

 

 

 

 

 

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Injuries 2018 MLB season

Injuries to keep an eye on heading into the 2018 MLB season

With the ALCS and NLCS around the corner and the 2017 fantasy baseball season officially in the books, it is time to assess the 2018 outlook for the following four players. They are all currently injured with fairly loose time tables for return, but also could be impact players next season.

Jimmy Nelson, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Jimmy Nelson’s 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranks fourth in the MLB, only behind Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer. (Photo by The News and Observer)

Nelson quietly emerged as one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball this season.

Yes, you heard me correctly. Jimmy Nelson. His 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranked eighth in the MLB. Nelson also finished in the top 10 in K/9 (10.21) and xFIP (3.15) to go with a 3.49 ERA. In 175.1 innings, Nelson fell only one strikeout short of 200, which was a huge improvement from his prior career high of 148 in 177.1 innings.

According to fangraphs.com, Nelson’s curveball in 2017 was valued at 9.2, where a value of zero represents average, a positive value represents above average and a negative value represents below. To put this in better perspective, Clayton Kershaw’s curveball has been valued at a total of 63.8 over the course of his career, with a high of 16.5 and a yearly average of 7.2, although his curveball is currently valued at 6.4 in 2017. This shows that Nelson’s stuff is similarly effective to the likes of Kershaw.

The 28-year-old suffered a partially torn labrum and a strained rotator cuff after sliding back head-first into first base on September 8. He underwent surgery on September 19, which will undoubtedly set him back at the start of the 2018 season. According to MLB.com, Nelson shouldn’t be expected to return until midseason.

Nelson is well worth a flyer in fantasy drafts next season, as his price is sure to be discounted due to his long-awaited return.

Adam Eaton, Outfielder, Washington Nationals

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Adam Eaton tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 MLB season. (Photo by the Cincinnati Enquirer)

In his first season in Washington after being traded for prospect pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, Eaton had found himself in a fantasy friendly leadoff role. It was undeniable that he could score triple-digit runs and steal double-digit bases atop a loaded Nationals lineup.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 season.

Eaton was batting .297 with two home runs, three stolen bases and 14 walks through 23 games this season. His combination of speed, plate discipline, contact hitting and opportunity in the Nationals’ lineup push me to compare him to the likes of his former teammate A.J. Pollock.

Pollock is a career .286 hitter with a 162-game average of 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Eaton’s 162-game average is .284, 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases, showing that he offers similar value to Pollack a much cheaper price.

Early reports this season suggested that there would be a possibility for Eaton to return at the end of the 2017 season if the Nationals were to make a deep postseason run. However, the Nationals were eliminated in the NLDS and Eaton did not enter a game. This indicates that Eaton should be ready to go by the start of 2018, and by his own account according to the Washington Post, he plans to return “a better player for sure.”

Eaton’s confidence in himself is reassuring for his fantasy value moving forward, although the current outfield situation in Washington is not. Superstar Bryce Harper is locked into right field as long as he remains a National. Michael Taylor has emerged as much more than a depth outfielder after batting .271 with 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases in Eaton’s absence. Veteran slugger Jayson Werth was on pace for 23 home runs through 162-games, but was plagued with injuries. Top prospect Victor Robles has also shown that he is deserving of MLB at-bats.

It is uncertain if and to what extent Eaton will play in 2018. If he returns to an everyday role, he will reemerge to fantasy relevance once again.

Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Toronto Blue Jays

Injuries 2018 MLB Season

Troy Tulowitzki is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Tulowitzki was placed on the 60-day disabled list on August 6 after suffering ligament damage in his ankle. The 33-year-old played in only 66 games, slashing a career worst .249/.300/.378. Despite his clear struggles and lack of durability, manager John Gibbons told MLB Network Radio that they are committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop in 2018.

He is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. The once perennial National League MVP candidate has been reduced to a shell of his former self. In his three seasons as a Blue Jay, he has a combined .250 batting average and just 36 home runs in 238 games.

He spent the majority of the season batting either fifth or sixth. With the anticipated departure of Jose Bautista and the Josh Donaldson trade rumors, it is hard to identify where Tulowitzki will fit in the order or how productive the Blue Jays’ lineup can be.

His fantasy value moving forward is a conundrum, as no one knows what to expect at this point in his career. Will he resurrect his MVP form? Or will his skills and durability continue to diminish? Only time will tell, but his price on draft day in 2018 is sure to be a bargain.

Michael Conforto, Outfielder, New York Mets

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Prior to the injury, Michael Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.55 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. (Photo by NY Daily News)

Conforto underwent season ending surgery on September 6 to repair a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder. His anticipated return is around early March, although this only gives him a month to ramp up baseball activities before the start of the season in April, suggesting that he will miss the beginning of the 2018 regular season.

Prior to the injury, Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. This rate of production put Conforto on pace to hit 40 home runs and drive in 101 RBIs.

Whether he is in left, right or center field, Corforto is a lock to be in the Mets’ lineup. He has proven that he is not just a left-handed side of a platoon, but yet a budding superstar, as he was playing nearly everyday in July and August. However, he still only bats a career .180 against lefties, so be weary.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old is sure to be undervalued in fantasy circles next season. He is obviously coming off of an injury, but more importantly, he plays for the Mets, whose offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in runs, RBIs and batting average in 2017. With a healthy Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets could easily become a top-15 offense in 2018, making Conforto’s fantasy value rise immensely.

 

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Starling Marte 2018

Starling Marte’s outlook for the 2018 MLB season

After quite a controversial 2017 season, let’s assess Starling Marte’s outlook heading into the 2018 MLB season.

Background

Starling Marte 2018

In his 2013 rookie campaign, Marte was impressive, batting .280 with 12 home runs and 41 stolen bases in 135 games. (Photo by USA Today)

In 2007, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed a then 18-year-old Starling Marte for $85,000. He spent two seasons playing in the Dominican Summer League, improving his batting average from .220 to .290 during that timespan. Marte played the majority of his next two seasons in the South Atlantic and Florida State Leagues, batting .312 and .315 respectively with a total of 50 stolen bases in 114 games.

In 2011, Marte received the call-up to double-A Altoona, where he batted .332 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 129 games. He then went on to play 30 games in the Dominican Winter League, where he would continue to rake, batting .328.

Marte was first called to the majors in 2012 after a 99 game stint with triple-A Indianapolis, where he batted .286 with 12 home runs and 21 stolen bases. In his first major league action, Marte was fairly mediocre, batting just .257 in his first 47 games. He returned to the Dominican Winter League in 2012-13, where he once again found his stroke, batting .304 in 29 games.

In his 2013 rookie campaign, Marte was impressive, batting .280 with 12 home runs and 41 stolen bases in 135 games. His 2014 season was very similar, as he played an identical 135 games and batted .291 with 13 home runs and stole 30 bases. He continued to find success at the major league level in 2015 when he hit .287 with 19 home runs and stole 30 bases. Marte exemplified his .300 average, 20 home run and 40 stolen base potential.

In 2016, Marte batted .311, hit nine home runs and stole 47 bases in only 129 games. He won his second consecutive Gold Glove while also being voted an All-Star for the first time, showing that if healthy, he is capable of being an MVP candidate.

2017 Season

Starling Marte 2018

Marte’s 2017 campaign got off to a rocky start, as he was suspended 80 games in mid-April after testing positive for Nandrolone. (Photo by USA Today)

Marte’s 2017 campaign got off to a rocky start, as he was suspended 80 games in mid-April after testing positive for Nandrolone, a performance enhancing drug on Major League Baseball’s banned substance list.

Marte then released the following statement:

“I have been informed that I have tested positive in one of the tests that are regularly done in my job. In this very difficult moment I apologize to my family, the Pittsburgh Pirates, my teammates, my fans, and baseball in general. Neglect and lack of knowledge have led me to this mistake with the high price to pay of being away from the field that I enjoy and love so much. With much embarrassment and helplessness, I ask for forgiveness for unintentionally disrespecting so many people who have trusted in my work and have supported me so much. I promise to learn the lesson that this ordeal has left me. God bless you.”  

Marte returned to action after the All-Star break on July 18. He would go on to bat .282 with five home runs and 19 stolen bases the rest of the way, putting him on a 162-game pace to hit 13 home runs and steal 50 bases.

2018 Outlook

Starling Marte 2018

In fantasy terms, Marte could be a top-10 player in the majority of formats. (Photo by USA TODAY Sports)

The Pirates may be well out of contention this season, but with their core of Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison, they promise to be a productive offense heading into 2018. Marte will bat at the top half of the lineup next season, either leading off or batting second, which bodes well for fantasy value. He will be 29 years old at the start of next season, placing him within his prime. Marte will be a threat to bat .300 with double-digit home runs, triple-digit runs and fifty stolen bases.

In fantasy terms, Marte could be a top-10 player in the majority of formats, specifically ESPN standard formats, as they tend to value steals heavier than most. Keep your eye on Marte heading into next season, as his price could be discounted on draft day due to his suspension and the Pirates 2017 struggles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Rhys Hoskins MLB

Why Rhys Hoskins stands out among young MLB sluggers

The 2017 Major League Baseball season has been nothing short of astounding. On Tuesday, September 19th, the collective single season home run record was broken, as Kansas City Royal Alex Gordon mashed home run number 5,694 of the MLB season. On top of this amazing feat, the MLB has seen a rapid immergence of young power hitters, like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Joey Gallo and Rhys Hoskins, who would all on pace for over 45 home runs if they played a complete 162 game season. I’m here to tell you why Hoskins has been the most impressive of the bunch in 2017.

Background

Rhys Hoskins MLB

Hoskins’ standout season came in 2016, where in 135 triple-A games, he batted .281 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 95 runs scored. (Photo by Yahoo Sports)

Expectations weren’t immediately set high for Hoskins, who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. In low-A, he batted just .237, while striking out almost 20 percent of the time. Hoskins progressed in 2015, batting a combined .319 in 135 games in single and high-A.

His standout season came in 2016, where in 135 triple-A games, Hoskins batted .281 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 95 runs scored. Previous to this season, Hoskins was ranked the 11th best prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system by Baseball America, after, he was ranked sixth, behind only J.P. Crawford, Mickey Moniak, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Sixto Sanchez.

2017 Season

Rhys Hoskins MLB

Hoskins has been astonishing, batting .293 with 18 home runs, a record 11 coming in his first 64 at bats. (Photo by Rotoprofessor)

Hoskins began 2017 in triple-A, where he continued his minor league dominance, batting .284 with 29 home runs and 91 RBIs in 115 games. One of the most important attributes Hoskins possesses is plate discipline, as he had walked (64) nearly as many times (75) as he struck out in triple-A. His minor league success, along with Tommy Joseph’s struggles made a call-up for Hoskins inevitable.

So far in the big leagues, Hoskins has been astonishing. Through 41 games, he is batting .293 with 18 home runs, a record 11 coming in his first 64 at bats, 45 RBIs and 34 runs scored. He is penciled into the clean-up spot of a young Phillies lineup is trending in the right direction.

What separates Hoskins from the rest

Rhys Hoskins MLB

In terms of contact rates, Hoskins’ 48 percent hard contact would rank him first among MLB hitters, ahead of Gallo (46 percent), Judge (44 percent), Bellinger (43 percent) and Olson (42 percent). (Photo by Theintelligence.com)

An interesting analytic to look at this season is Hoskins’ BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, which represents how often a ball hit into play results in a hit. For hitters, this stat can be used to identify trends in performance. More specifically for Hoskins, his .264 BABIP suggests that he is getting very unlucky at the dish, as his BABIP in the past has consistently been above .280, most notably above .360 in 2015. To compare, New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is batting .277, although his BABIP is currently an exorbitant .355, suggesting that his batting average is fairly unsustainable. I understand that other factors like exit velocity need to be taken into consideration with BABIP, although Judge’s BABIP has been falling since June.

In terms of strikeout rate, Hoskins sits at a very respectable 20 percent compared to other young stars like Judge (31 percent), Bellinger (26 percent), Gallo (37 percent) and Olson (28 percent), who clearly struggle mightily with striking out. In counts were there is one ball and two strikes, Hoskins is batting an impressive .293, compared to Judge (.190), Bellinger (.188), Gallo (.112) and Olson (.144), exemplifying Hoskins’ pure ability, resilience, plate discipline and overarching mentality of not wanting to strikeout.

Getting on base is an integral part of baseball, and Hoskins is doing it better than almost anyone. He currently has a .425 on base percentage, putting him behind only Joey Votto in this category. Another impressive stat for Hoskins is his walk rate, as although he is not qualified due to a lack of at-bats, he would be ranked third in the MLB in walk rate behind only Votto and Judge. In terms of contact rates, Hoskins’ 48 percent hard contact would rank him first among MLB hitters, ahead of Gallo (46 percent), Judge (44 percent), Bellinger (43 percent) and Olson (42 percent).

I understand he does not qualify due to a lack of major league at-bats, although his 41-game sample size is nothing to scoff at. Calling him the next Paul Golschmidt or Joey Votto may sound crazy to some, but not to me. His stats are incredible and his analytics support growth and sustainability. If not already, Hoskins is bound to become a household name in major league baseball.

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Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Mitch Haniger is a must-add for your fantasy baseball playoffs

Background

Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Mitch Haniger was traded last November to the Seattle Mariners along with blossoming star Jean Segura. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Mitch Haniger was originally drafted out of high school by the New York Mets in the 31st round of the 2009 MLB draft, but he opted to attend Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo, California. The most notable player to come from Cal Poly is Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith.

In his freshman season, Haniger only played in 17 games. He began to become one of the more highly-touted college prospects after earning an every-day role his sophomore year. In his final collegiate season, he batted .346 with 13 home runs and 64 RBIs in 56 games. He was dominating the Big West Conference and MLB teams were taking notice.

At 21 years old, Haniger was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the first round of the 2012 draft. After failing to standout in low and high-A, Haniger was traded with former 10th-round selection Anthony Banda to the Arizona Diamondbacks for outfielder Gerardo Parra.

In 85 games at the triple-A level, Haniger batted .330 with 23 home runs, 70 RBIs and eight stolen bases. Haniger debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2016, where he played in 34 games and batted .229 with five home runs and 17 RBIs.

After an underwhelming start, he was subsequently traded last November to the Seattle Mariners along with blossoming star Jean Segura and former sixth-round pick Zac Curtis for former first-round pick Taijuan Walker and infielder Ketel Marte.

Haniger was deemed the everyday right fielder after slashing .406/.472/.719 in 32 at bats in spring training. He originally slotted into the two-hole for the Mariners, batting behind Segura and ahead of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. This spot helped Haniger become one of the most productive players in the MLB in April, as he was leading the Mariners in WAR at 1.8 and batting .342 with four home runs, 20 runs scored, 16 RBIs and two stolen bases.

 

Injuries

Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Haniger missed half of August due to a mild concussion, small nasal fracture and lacerated upper lip which occurred after being hit in the face by a Jacob deGrom fastball on July 29th. (Photo by NY Daily News)

Haniger is currently owned in only 18.6 percent of fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN.com, which is mainly due to his inability to stay on the field. He missed all of May and the beginning of June due to a strained oblique, which he suffered on April 25.

After returning on June 18, the 26-year-old clearly was feeling the lingering effects of the leg injury, as he only batted .176 in 68 at bats in July.

Most recently, he missed half of August due to a mild concussion, small nasal fracture and lacerated upper lip, which occurred after being hit in the face by a Jacob deGrom fastball on July 29.

 

Picking back up where he left off

Mitch Haniger fantasy baseball

Haniger is batting .455 with two home runs, five runs scored and six RBIs in his 18 games since returning. (Photo by the Seattle Times)

The Mariners outfielder returned from his facial and head injuries on August 19 and returned to his everyday role in right field. So far in September, Haniger is batting .455 with two home runs, five runs scored and six RBIs in 33 at bats.

In his 18 games since returning, Haniger’s lineup position has varied. He has batted second and fifth on four separate occasions, while batting sixth 10 times.

If he can continue to get at bats in the two-hole, his fantasy value will sky rocket. Haniger will be an integral piece to the Mariners success moving forward. If you need outfield depth, Haniger would be a perfect option for your fantasy baseball playoff run.

 

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What if players retained their eligibilities permanently?

In fantasy baseball, position versatility is integral. Players like Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Jose Ramirez and Paul DeJong are all eligible to start at three different positions in ESPN standard formats. Having players like them allows for maximum lineup adaptability, as you can move them seamlessly throughout your lineup to accommodate for injuries, off-days and cold streaks.

Superstars like Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman have acquired a secondary position eligibility in 2017, Rizzo with second base and Freeman with third. Both player’s project to be selected within the top two rounds of fantasy drafts in 2018, although now their value is further increased, as their versatility allows for further adaptations in draft strategy. In 2018, if your first-round pick is Paul Goldschmidt, you can be completely comfortable taking another primary first basemen, Rizzo or Freeman, in the second-round due to their versatility.

Be careful evaluating

position eligibilities

Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are in danger of losing important position eligibilities. (Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports)

Position eligibilities can be tricky and you have to be careful when evaluating a player’s versatility. In ESPN formats, a player needs to play a minimum of 10 games at a specific position to retain said eligibility.

Players to be weary of heading into 2018 include Kris Bryant, who has been used all over the diamond in 2017, but has only started one game in left field, Nelson Cruz, who has started 115 games at designated hitter and only five in right field, Travis Shaw, who has only started one game at first base and Javier Baez, who has started just seven games at third base.

Players failing to retain eligibility brings up the question, what if players retained their eligibilities permanently? What if I could start Victor Martinez or Josh Donaldson for that matter, at catcher, or maybe Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun at third base?

Thinking back

position eligibilities

Victor Martinez started 840 games behind the dish. (Photo by Sports Illustrated)

Victor Martinez started 840 games behind the dish and had a career batting average as a catcher of .300. As a designated hitter, he started 746 games, and had a career batting average of .291. According to the ESPN standard player rater, if Victor Martinez was catcher eligible this season, he would be ranked the 16th best catcher, which isn’t too interesting, although in 2016 he would have been ranked number two, just behind Jonathan Lucroy and ahead of Buster Posey.

Many forget but former MVP Josh Donaldson came up through the ranks as a catching prospect for the Oakland Athletics. Donaldson didn’t last at catcher, starting only eight games at the position, although in some fantasy leagues, it only takes five starts to become eligible at a position.

If Donaldson retained his catcher eligibility from 2010, he would have been the best fantasy catcher over the last five seasons. In 2016, Donaldson finished the year as a 9.25 on the ESPN standard player rater (PR), whereas the top catcher, Lucroy, finished as a 5.59. Even with Donaldson’s struggles in 2017, he would be ranked seventh if he were a catcher, compared to 21st as a third baseman. If players retained their eligibility, it would spice things up a bit, and I believe maybe for the better.

Ryan Zimmerman started over 1000 career games at third, while Ryan Braun started just north of 100, although if they both permanently retained their eligibilities, would it really benefit their fantasy value? Zimmerman is having a career year, batting .300 with 29 home runs, which are the highest marks of his career since his last Silver Slugger campaign in 2010. He is currently ranked as the seventh best fantasy first baseman, although if he were eligible at third, he would be ranked fifth, just behind Travis Shaw and Jose Ramirez. It is fair to say his value would increase slightly, although with first and third base having such rich player pools, it may not make such a significant difference.

In Braun’s case, he has been suffering through a multitude of injuries, causing his PR in 2017 to be 2.35, just below fellow banged-up outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who’s at 2.36. As a third baseman, Braun would rank 22nd, just behind former MVP Josh Donaldson at 2.81. Due to his injuries, Braun has been quite useless in fantasy terms, although with an extra eligibility, he could become quite useful depending on the circumstances.

I know, I know

Position Eligibilities

Many forget about Rick Ankiel’s struggles as a pithcer. (Photo by Getty Images)

It’s never going to happen, I know, and it shouldn’t, but we can say what ifs all day about position eligibility. What if Albert Pujols retained his first base, third base and left field eligibilities? What if Hanley Ramirez retained shortstop? What if Rick Ankiel retained his starting pitcher… okay never mind, I’ll stop now. I think eligibilities are one of the most interesting and impactful pieces of fantasy baseball that gets commonly over looked.

 

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Byron Buxton

Has Byron Buxton hit his stride?

Once touted by ESPN writer Thomas Neumann as being “poised for greatness”, former number one prospect in baseball Byron Buxton has not risen to stardom as quick as we had hoped.

Background

Byron Buxton

Former Minnesota Twins outfielder, four time All-Star and nine time Gold Glove winner Torii Hunter referred to Buxton as “Mike Trout 2” (Photo by Wikimedia Commons)

Former Minnesota Twins outfielder, four-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove winner Torii Hunter referred to Buxton as “Mike Trout 2” in an interview with Scott Miller of Bleacher Report in 2014.

This is quite a laughable comparison now, although at that time, Buxton had been deemed a “can’t-miss prospect” by a multitude of venerable sources.

The expectations that followed being selected as the second overall pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft have been insurmountable for Buxton, as his inability to stay on the field has significantly restricted his opportunity to improve.

In the midst of a great 2013 campaign, Buxton missed time with a shoulder injury. In 2014, the then 20-year-old spent multiple stints on the disabled list with a sprained wrist and later a season-ending concussion. Mix in a broken finger, thumb and strained hamstring and you have just a snippet of his documented injury history.

Buxton’s speed and fielding ability have allowed him to make some of the most jaw dropping plays we’ve ever seen, although his reckless play style clearly has impacted his health negatively. Although, the fact that none of his injuries seemed linked to one another, or the fact that they have not included significant ligament damage, suggest that he is not injury prone, but simply an aggressive and unlucky player.

The ups and downs

Byron Buxton

Buxton was struggling mightily to begin his major-league career, batting a mere .209 with only two home runs and two stolen bases in his first 46 games. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

His first stint of long-term success came in 2013, where as a 19-year-old, Buxton batted .334 with 12 home runs, 77 RBIs and 55 stolen bases in 125 games at the low and high A levels. After the aforementioned injuries in 2014, Buxton returned to form, batting a collective .305 with seven home runs, 45 RBIs and 22 stolen bases in 72 games in 2015 at the double and triple A levels.

Buxton was first called up to the Twins in mid-June of 2015. The 21-year-old Buxton was struggling mightily to begin his major-league career, batting a mere .209 with only two home runs and two stolen bases in his first 46 games.

Buxton began 2016 in triple-A, although after batting .305 with 11 home runs, 38 RBIs and 10 stolen bases in 49 games he was recalled. Over the next 92 games Buxton’s major league struggles would continue, as he batted only .225 with 10 home runs, 38 RBIs and 10 stolen bases while striking out at an atrocious 35.6 percent rate.

In 2017, Buxton was afforded another opportunity to prove himself as he began the season with Minnesota. His first half went as many expected, as the now 23-year-old Buxton had batted .216 with five home runs and 16 stolen bases in 79 games while striking out over 30 percent of the time.

Although, since July, the hype around Buxton has reemerged. He finished the first half red hot, batting .387 in 10 games in July. He has continued his success heading into the second half, as he is currently batting .351 in his last 18 games, while decreasing his strikeout rate to a more respectable 22.4 percent over that span.

Buxton was once given an overall rating of 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale, with a 70 hitting tool, 60 power and 80 running. His potential to become a superstar doesn’t seem likely, although he has once again grabbed our attention by being a top five fantasy outfielder over the past 15 days and top 25 over the past 30.

Concerns

Byron Buxton

The future for Buxton is bright, although I do not see him as the type of player that will help win fantasy championships in 2017. (Photo by ThreeSixty Journalism)

It is clear that Buxton has the potential to be a 20-home run/40-stolen base threat, although he undoubtedly has plenty left to prove. His inconsistency at the dish and inability to stay healthy are serious concerns.

Not to mention his BABIP in the second half is absurdly high at .425, which is obviously unsustainable and a concern moving forward. Also, he is batting primarily in the seven, eight and nine spots in the lineup, which limits his current fantasy value.

If he were to be moved back to the leadoff spot, which is where he was originally anticipated to be, his fantasy value would rise immensely.

The future for Buxton is bright, although I do not see him as the type of player that will help win fantasy championships in 2017. If he is on my dynasty roster, I would be excited for what the future holds. If I own Buxton in a keeper league format, I would be extremely skeptical of selecting him as one of my limited number of keepers, as I would not be comfortable taking the risk with all of his inconstancies and injury history heading into the 2018 season.

 

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