week 10 DFS don'ts

Week 10 DFS don’ts: Tight end

Like the kicker and defense positions, I find myself in the middle of the tight end price range most weeks. However, this week presents a problem. The expensive tight ends are in good situations, but that middle price range that I love is filled with problematic players. Let’s find out which landmines to avoid at the tight end edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $6,100

I never thought I’d see the day that Jack Doyle is one of the most expensive tight ends on the FanDuel Sunday main slate. Sadly, he won’t be on any of my rosters this weekend.

Doyle’s workload and connection with Jacoby Brissett has improved dramatically over the past few weeks. He’s usually a player I’m targeting, but his matchup against the Steelers is absolutely brutal

This season, the Steelers pass defense has only allowed a single touchdown to a fantasy relevant tight end. Tyler Kroft scored against the Steelers in Week 7 and was the only tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against this unit all season. Top players at the position like Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph failed to score at least 10 points or find the end zone.

One reason for their success against this position is their pass rush. However, I believe the main reason for their success against tight ends comes down to one player, Ryan Shazier. He is currently ranked as the fifth best linebacker according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers have been deploying him in underneath coverage against tight ends and allowing T.J. Watt to rush the passer.

That’s the reason why Shazier has zero sacks this year and why Watt is tied for second on the team with four. Shazier’s ability to cover tight ends underneath severely limits the amount of targets and catches the opposition can accumulate.

I don’t see the Colts being able to protect Brissett long enough to attack this defense down the field with Doyle. Therefore, I think Doyle’s run as one of the best daily fantasy tight ends comes to an end this week.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,300

I thought I was done talking about Eric Ebron, but I was wrong. The Lions face the Cleveland Browns this weekend, one of the worst teams against the tight end in the NFL. Ebron is going to get hyped up all week as a great “under the radar” option at tight end, but don’t fall for it.

The Lions have been using their backup tight end Darren Fells more than Ebron. And, there is one problem for either of these tight ends this weekend in a great matchup.

The Lions have had an incredibly bad red zone offense this season, especially the last two weeks. This presents a great opportunity for the Lions to get right in the red zone against a team that is so bad against the tight end. However, Ebron has to be on the field in order to capitalize on this matchup. It’s too bad he’s been playing second fiddle to Fells in terms of snaps since Week 4.

week 10 DFS don'ts

Snap count information from Rotowire

Not only is Fells getting more playing time than Ebron, he’s seeing substantially more targets in the red zone. During that same stretch, Fells has 11 red zone targets and six catches. Ebron only has five red zone targets and a grand total of zero catches.

It’s evident that Matthew Stafford does not trust him near the goal line. If any tight end is scoring against the Browns in the red zone, I bet my money on Fells and not Ebron.

Vernon Davis: FanDuel Price $5,300

Vernon Davis came through for a lot of DFS owners in Week 9. On the road against a banged up Seattle defense, Davis had a productive day given his price. However, I don’t see it happening this weekend when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I’m making this pick regardless of Jordan Reed’s status for Sunday’s game.

If Reed plays, Davis loses a lot of opportunities and is therefore a shoe-in for the Week 10 DFS don’t list. If Reed sits, Davis draws a tremendously tough individual matchup against Harrison Smith. Smith is grading out as the NFL’s best safety. He’s been incredible in coverage this year, and I don’t see Davis at his advanced age being able get open.

Davis joins Doyle and Ebron as tight ends to keep off your roster in this edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

 

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week 6 DFS don'ts

Week 6 DFS don’ts: tight end

This could be the most frustrating position in all of fantasy football. If you’re in a seasonal league, you’re just looking at any tight end who can get you more than zero points. If you’re a DFS degenerate like myself, you’re torn every week between paying up for Zach Ertz, or making a value play like Ryan Griffin. I can’t confidently tell you who will lead the position in scoring this weekend. However, I can tell you which players to fade in the tight end edition of week 6 DFS don’ts.

Martellus Bennett: FanDuel Price $5,500

Have we not learned our lesson? It doesn’t matter who the tight end is; the Green Bay offense doesn’t feature tight ends. What happened when Randall Cobb was inactive against Cincinnati? Conventional wisdom says they would allocate targets to the large, athletic tight end in the middle of the field. Instead, Geronimo Allison had twice as many targets Bennett.

It’s clear this offense prioritizes wide receivers. There’s a reason that Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are first and second in touchdowns since 2016. It took Nelson and Cobb getting hurt against Atlanta to see double-digit targets. Bennett still only managed to turn 11 targets into five catches for 47 yards.

Offensive role aside, Bennett has an awful individual matchup this Sunday against Harrison Smith. While Smith doesn’t get national media coverage, he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. Currently, Pro Football Focus has Smith ranked as the sixth best safety. Please, do yourself a favor, and avoid Martellus Bennett this weekend. There are better options available.

Darren Fells: FanDuel Price $4,900

week 6 DFS don'ts

Darren Fells has done nothing but take advantage of the opportunities he’s been given this season. (Photo from Washington Times).

If you’ve been following this series, or listening to the Suck My DFS Podcast, my disdain for Eric Ebron is well documented. It brought me pure joy to watch him drop a touchdown pass, and then see Darren Fells catch two. However, joy does not equate to DFS viability.

Fells has no doubt been improving this season. Every game, his role becomes more solidified. He even managed to get more snaps than Ebron on Sunday against the Panthers. But, let’s calm down. The workload simply isn’t there.

Yes, Fells scored twice, but he was only targeted twice. That means he maxed out his potential production, and that only equates to 15 points. Considering how awful this position is, that’s great. However, Fells’ floor is way to low to even consider as a DFS option. I’ll be going elsewhere this week as Fells joins Bennett on my week 6 DFS don’ts list.

 

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week 5 DFS don'ts

Week 5 DFS don’ts: tight end

I love this part of the NFL season. With four weeks in the books, we have a much better idea of how these players will be used. This is the time to strike in DFS. We know who the featured players are and which defenses we want to target on a weekly basis. So let’s get started with the tight end edition of week 5 DFS don’ts.

Tyler Kroft: FanDuel Price $5,500

If you listened to the Suck My DFS Podcast last week, I hope you made a ton of money on Tyler Kroft. He had a great week and took advantage of a great matchup.

However, that was last week. Cleveland has been atrocious against the tight end position this season. Kroft also had the second most targets on the Bengals through the first three weeks. It was the perfect situation where opportunity and matchup aligned perfectly, but that was last week.

In week 5, the Bengals face the Bills. The Bills held Matt Ryan to his lowest completion percentage of the season at 57.1 percent. Yes, I know he didn’t have all of his weapons on the outside, but it’s safe to say that Matt Ryan’s offensive line is vastly superior to Andy Dalton’s. Thus, Dalton and company are going to struggle to move the football consistently.

Apart from their performance against the Falcons, the Bills have been tremendous against the pass all season. As a unit, they’ve only surrendered one touchdown pass through the first four games. That score came on the road against Atlanta, who has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.

Analysis aside, playing Tyler Kroft goes against one of my core DFS beliefs: Don’t chase points.

Kroft took advantage of a great matchup. That’s it. He will not produce near to the same level this Sunday. His price has increased dramatically. For these reasons, Kroft has landed on my week 5 DFS don’ts list.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,200

week 5 DFS don'ts

Eric Ebron’s inconsistent play has landed him on the week 5 DFS don’ts list (Courtesy of; Zimbio).

I’m so close to being out on Eric Ebron indefinitely. Watching him play is incredibly frustrating. He’s consistently inconsistent and Matt Stafford has taken notice. After dropping multiple passes against Atlanta in week 3, Ebron has clearly fallen out of favor.

Detroit’s coaching staff has taken notice as well. Ebron was only on the field for 31 snaps Sunday against the Vikings compared to 45 the week before. His understudy, Darren Fells, was on the field for a staggering 51 snaps against the Vikings. He also had a season-high five targets, which was one more target than Ebron.

Eric Ebron is incredibly talented, but his time is up. If he’s healthy, which has been a big if in his career, he’s anything but consistent. Unless his price falls drastically, and he has a great matchup, I will not be touching Eric Ebron for the foreseeable future.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of USA Today

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week three DFS Dont's

Week three DFS don’ts: Report card

Well, this was my worst week in terms of DFS earnings. I simply could not overcome single digit performances from Ty Montgomery and Jay Ajayi, and a critical injury to Kelvin Benjamin. Not to mention incredibly underwhelming performance from Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree. I could go on, but let’s just get to my week three DFS don’ts report card.

Quarterback: 1/5

I guess I learned that I should never bet against Drew Brees. He dismantled the Panthers and seemingly got every receiver involved while doing so. And, of course, this was the weekend Russell Wilson broke out of his slump. I’m happy he finally started playing well, but, not so happy it was this particular weekend.

I’ll just call this whole position an “L” for week three. I don’t want to even try and justify Stafford as a good play, since he only scored 16.46 points. However, Andy Dalton did manage to more than double his value with 16.28 points. Dalton was my lone victory at this position. I’d rather not talk about Derek Car. He killed me.

Running Back: 3/6

My week three DFS don’ts at the running back position included LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey and Ameer Abdullah. I was right on both McCoy and Abdullah, as both failed to at least double their price in value. McCaffrey finally had a good game; however, I wouldn’t count on him to get 100 yards receiving every game, so good luck if you keep playing him.

I showed Le’Veon Bell and Ty Montgomery a lot of love on the Suck My DFS Podcast, and it backfired. Bell finally had a score, but 18.8 points isn’t good enough for Bell in my opinion. Montgomery was also disappointing. The only saving grace was Chris Carson managed to double his value in terms of production so that’s a win.

Wide Receiver: 4/6

I’m pleasantly surprised my wide receiver predictions. I nailed all of my week three DFS don’ts at this position. Those predictions included Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and Martavis Bryant. None of those players provided two times their production.

A.J. Green wasn’t a difficult prediction to make. He was in a great match up with a new coordinator that clearly wanted to feature him. Sadly, Keenan Allen and Kelvin Benjamin really came up short. Benjamin’s injury was the first straw that broke my cash game lineups.

Tight End: 2/3

As I stated in my tight end edition of week three DFS don’ts, the matchup for Delanie Walker was too difficult. He was still featured as a receiver, but the production just wasn’t there this week. Coby Fleener has returned to being absolutely useless as a tight end, no surprise there.

It was so frustrating to watch Eric Ebron drop every easy catch in that game. Stafford, to his credit, still wanted to target him, but Ebron insisted on destroying any trust he had in that passing game.

Kicker: 2/2

Kicker, like most weeks, was easy. Matt Prater was a must play. He’s proven to have a leg capable of making 50+ yard field goals, and, was playing at home in a dome. He delivered 19 points. On the other hand, Younghoe Koo was disappointing per usual.

Defense: 2/3

Both Seattle and Tampa Bay failed tremendously. One team surrendered almost 200 yards rushing, and the other allowed Case Keenum to throw for more than 300 yards. Sadly, the Eagles collapsed in the second half and allowed 24 second-half points.

Overall Score: 14/25

I’m not happy with week three. My DFS earnings took a hit, one of my seasonal teams got demolished, and I was only correct on 56% of my picks. Let’s just get to week four already. We’ll be back tomorrow with the kicker and defense edition of week four DFS don’ts.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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Allen Robinson's Injury

Allen Robinson’s injury

Allen Robinson left the game against the Houston Texans in Week 1 after landing awkwardly after a 17-yard catch and was forced out of bounds. It was confirmed by the Jaguars that he did tear his ACL.

He was the main target back in 2015 with 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He struggled in 2016 with 73 receptions, 883 yards and six touchdowns. However, it’s hard to fault Robinson for the struggles because of bad quarterback play.

With Robinson out for the season, we look to other Jaguar receivers to pick up the slack after the Robinson injury and for some fillers to replace him on your fantasy team.

The role for other Jaguar receivers

Even though the significance of Robinson’s injury is high, the Jaguars have depth behind him. If there is one place they might have an excess of talent, it’s at wide receiver. This will open the door for Allen Hurns, who broke out in 2015 with Robinson having 1,031 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

Allen Robinson injury

Robinson, Hurns, Lee (Photo by: firstcoastnews.com)

In 2016, he struggled as did most players for the Jaguars and also dealt with injuries. He was demoted for the 2017 season to the slot with the emergence of Marqise Lee, but will now likely be back to the outside.

After the injury, Hurns led the way in receiving against the Texans with three catches for 42 yards. Hurns is worth the look to replace Robinson on your team if Lee is already owned.

Lee showed some promise after 2016. He finally played all 16 games after three seasons and got 105 targets, 63 receptions, 851 yards and three touchdowns. In an article from Bleacher Report, writer Adam Wells had a quote from Bob Sylvester of Fantasypros about Lee’s progression.

“Lee started just six games last season but arguably outperformed Allen Robinson. It is possible that he sees an extra 30 targets this season now that they know what they have in Lee. He is due for significant positive TD regression too.”

Now this doesn’t mean start Lee week to week. However, he does become a more dependable option at the flex position.

Players to Replace Robinson on your team

Although a disappointing 2016 season, Robinson was still the number one target in Jacksonville. That’s not easy to replace, especially in fantasy.

The first option to look to is the backup on the Jaguars, which is Hurns. Lee is also available in many leagues. Though this option could be risky because they don’t throw the ball like they used to. Now they just hand it off to rookie Leonard Fournette, who had 26 carries on Sunday.

Allen Robinson injury

Allen Robinson (Photo by: jaguars.com)

One receiver that could help in the long run is Eagles receiver Nelson Agholor. He has trouble since entering the NFL, but last Sunday looked like an improvement with six catches for 86 yards and a 58-yard touchdown. He still has other receivers in front of him, but if this is the breakout we’ve waited for, then this might be the time to pick him up.

Another receiver is preseason sensation Kenny Golladay of the Detroit Lions. Golladay just caught four passes for 69 yards and two touchdowns. He is a big red zone threat thanks to his 6-foot-4 height.

But Detroit has a lot of options such as Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron. However, he does have a hot hand and has proven himself in preseason.

If Robinson was a WR3/flex, then you could look at trending running backs. Kerwynn Williams is now the starter in Arizona after David Johnson’s injury. Javorius Allen could slide to fill the role in Baltimore now with Danny Woodhead out four to six weeks. Rookie Tarik Cohen could also be an interesting pickup. The Human Joystick led the Bears in both rushing and receiving in his NFL regular season debut, finishing with 113 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. He will continue to be a key contributor in the offense.

 

Featured image from si.com

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week three DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Report Card

With the first Sunday in the books, it’s time to review week one and my predictions. I’ll be reviewing my picks from last week’s DFS Dont’s article series, as well as the picks I made on the Suck My DFS Podcast. Picks aside, I started off the year right by finishing in the money in all 36 of my FanDuel contests. Without further adieu, here is the report card edition of my week one DFS Dont’s.

Quarterback: 1/5

Last week, I stated that Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Stafford should stay off your DFS lineups. I was feeling great about my Stafford prediction after the first quarter, but that feeling quickly subsided. Stafford finished with 28.08 points. Roethlisberger didn’t set the world on fire, but I’ll chalk his 16.72 points up as a loss for me.

On the Suck My DFS Podcast, I chose three quarterbacks I liked in cash games and GPP’s: Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Brian Hoyer. Both Wilson and Hoyer scored single digit points. On the bright side, Wilson didn’t cost me in my cash games. Thankfully, Carson Wentz paid dividends on his $7,100 price tag, as he scored 19.88 points.

I ended up playing three quarterbacks in my cash lineups: Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. I couldn’t find a good combination for my GPP contests, so I decided to pull my money out this week and just play cash games. I’m not regretting that decision.

Running Back: 3/6

In my running back DFS Dont’s piece, I advised that you stay away from Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Marshawn Lynch. I had know idea the Jacksonville Jaguars would dominate the Houston Texans in such dramatic fashion. I look forward to cashing in on Fournette in the future as he scored 19.9 points in his debut. Elliott’s $8,700 price tag isn’t usually worth 16.5 points; however, I’ll mark it as a loss since that’s much better than how David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell produced. I told you to stay away from Lynch until we know exactly how his workload will look, hopefully you did, as he scored a whopping 9.7 points.

On the podcast, I gushed over LeSean McCoy and Todd Gurley. They scored 18.4 and 18.1 points each. Sadly, I also loved Bilal Powell, who produced a disappointing single digit performance. Once again, I lucked out with my Powell prediction since I didn’t partake in any GPP contests in week one.

Wide Receiver: 1/5

My week one DFS Dont’s at this position included Dez Bryant, Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry. I was dead on about Bryant and his personal match up against Janoris Jenkins, as he scored a disappointing 5.3 points. However, I was totally wrong about Golden Tate. He, unlike Dez, found a way to overcome a tough match up and produced 16.4 points. Jarvis Landry had an unexpected bye, so I won’t be counting that prediction at all.

In my podcast picks, I pounded the table on AJ Green, Doug Baldwin and Martavis Bryant. I was wrong on all three as they severely under produced.

Tight End: 3/5

Eric Ebron was awful, so that gives me a mark in the win column. Yet again, my other prediction was set to play in the rescheduled Miami vs Tampa Bay game, so throw out O.J. Howard this week.

The tight ends I liked were Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Jack Dolye and Zach Miller. Walker and Ertz finished in the top six among tight ends in week one. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough volume for Doyle or Miller to get a chance to be productive or else they would have hit as well. I’ll take the two losses on Doyle and Miller.

Kicker: 2/2

It’s pretty straight forward, stop paying up for kickers. The position is way too dependent on coaching decisions, weather and offensive competency. Nine kickers scored double digit points in week one, and Justin Tucker was not one of them.

On the other hand, my podcast pick clicked, Ryan Succop. It wasn’t rocket science. Here’s the criteria for which I pick my kicker. Is he less than $4,800? Is he at home? Is he favored? Is the weather good? Succop met all of these requirements.

Defense: 2/4

In my first ever DFS Dont’s piece, I made the case not to play the Pittsburgh or Buffalo defense. Neither one of them paid off like most had hoped, but, neither imploded like I had hoped. Given your defense starts with 10 points, I’ll say I was wrong about the Steelers, since they scored 12, and was right about the Bills, since they only scored nine.

We crushed our defensive picks to click. Both Will and I were all in on Los Angeles in week one and they did not disappoint. On the other hand, I offered the Arizona defense as a potential GPP pivot from the Rams, and they only scored eight points.

Week One DFS Dont’s Report Card: 12/27

On a percentage basis, I was not good. I only connected on 44% of my picks in week one. By my standards, and at almost any academic institution, 44% is a failure. Now, no one gets 100% of their predictions right, but, I need to operate in the 60-70 percentile to feel like it was a good week. You can check out all of my week one DFS Dont’s articles here. We’ll start with week two tomorrow as we break down what kicker and defenses you should avoid.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Tight Ends

Now that the Kicker and Defense is out of the way, let’s start looking at real Football players. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in NFL DFS. The drop off from top tier players like Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce to the next is dramatic. I look for value at this position. Specifically, I want players with medium/low salaries that can produce double digit points. Without further delay, let’s examine which tight ends are part of my week one DFS dont’s.

Eric Ebron – Fanduel Price $5,500

2016 could not have been more frustrating for season-long owners of Eric Ebron. Yet again, he failed to reach one thousand yards receiving. And, he had one more touchdown reception than I did last year. Not to mention, Ebron has a propensity for getting and staying injured.

On the other hand, there will be a plethora of red zone targets up for grabs with Anquan Boldin’s departure. I think he will no doubt have more than one touchdown this season and more than 711 yards receiving. However, his match up with the vaunted Cardinals secondary is a huge problem.

In 2016, the Cardinals secondary was elite against tight ends. Through their first eight games, the Cardinals never surrendered more than five catches and 53 yards receiving. Not to mention, they allowed zero receiving touchdowns to tight ends. They even pitched a complete game shutout against the Jets in week six. Meaning, they didn’t allow a single tight end to register a stat.

week one DFS Dont's

Will the Cardinals’ defense shut down Eric Ebron and justify his placement on my week one DFS Dont’s list?

I know Ebron is talented. I know he plays in an offense that throws the ball at least 30 times a game. But, I have no confidence that he will produce against this elite unit, or, that he’ll even be healthy enough to play the whole game. There are plenty more attractive options at tight end this week. Given his situation, Eric Ebron was the easiest member of my week one DFS Dont’s among any position.

OJ Howard – Fanduel Price $5,400

The hype around OJ Howard astounds me. Have we already forgotten that Cameron Brate, the Buccaneers starting tight end, tied for leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns among tight ends? Yes, I know that Hunter Henry, a backup rookie tight end, was who he tied with. However, this situation is different.

week one DFS Dont's

There’s no denying OJ Howard’s talent, but will the opportunities be there in week one for him to make a DFS impact? (Photo Courtesy of; Bucs Report)

Antonio Gates has clearly lost a step or two. This gave Henry the opportunity to get on the field and demand targets. Brate on the other hand is a young player at his position and has a tremendous red zone chemistry with Jameis Winston. I do believe at some point this year Howard overtakes Brate, but not the first week of the season.

Not only is Howard not the starting tight end, he would at best be the third receiving option if he was. Mike Evans led the NFL in targets last season and DeSean Jackson wasn’t brought in to be a decoy on half the snaps.

Apart from Howard’s current situation, rookie tight ends historically don’t start strong and rarely score 100 non-PPR points in a season. By non-PPR standards, the three best rookie seasons in NFL history by tight ends are Rob Gronkowski in 2010 (114 points), Cam Cleeland in 1998 (104 points), and Jeremy Shockey in 2002 (102 points).

Two of those three players will go to the Hall of Fame at their positions and for the record, only Cleeland, who I know you’ve never heard of before, scored double digit points in his rookie debut. If you want to compete in GPP’s or large tournaments, you’ll need your tight end to score double digit points.

If I haven’t made a strong enough case yet, this is sure to convince you. OJ Howard, the backup tight end, is $200 more expensive than the starter Cameron Brate! You are literally throwing away money for less production if you decide to roster OJ Howard. It only makes sense that Howard will go off now that I’ve taken such a strong stance, but the evidence suggests he belongs on my week one DFS Dont’s.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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