week three DFS Dont's

Week three DFS don’ts: Report card

Well, this was my worst week in terms of DFS earnings. I simply could not overcome single digit performances from Ty Montgomery and Jay Ajayi, and a critical injury to Kelvin Benjamin. Not to mention incredibly underwhelming performance from Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree. I could go on, but let’s just get to my week three DFS don’ts report card.

Quarterback: 1/5

I guess I learned that I should never bet against Drew Brees. He dismantled the Panthers and seemingly got every receiver involved while doing so. And, of course, this was the weekend Russell Wilson broke out of his slump. I’m happy he finally started playing well, but, not so happy it was this particular weekend.

I’ll just call this whole position an “L” for week three. I don’t want to even try and justify Stafford as a good play, since he only scored 16.46 points. However, Andy Dalton did manage to more than double his value with 16.28 points. Dalton was my lone victory at this position. I’d rather not talk about Derek Car. He killed me.

Running Back: 3/6

My week three DFS don’ts at the running back position included LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey and Ameer Abdullah. I was right on both McCoy and Abdullah, as both failed to at least double their price in value. McCaffrey finally had a good game; however, I wouldn’t count on him to get 100 yards receiving every game, so good luck if you keep playing him.

I showed Le’Veon Bell and Ty Montgomery a lot of love on the Suck My DFS Podcast, and it backfired. Bell finally had a score, but 18.8 points isn’t good enough for Bell in my opinion. Montgomery was also disappointing. The only saving grace was Chris Carson managed to double his value in terms of production so that’s a win.

Wide Receiver: 4/6

I’m pleasantly surprised my wide receiver predictions. I nailed all of my week three DFS don’ts at this position. Those predictions included Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and Martavis Bryant. None of those players provided two times their production.

A.J. Green wasn’t a difficult prediction to make. He was in a great match up with a new coordinator that clearly wanted to feature him. Sadly, Keenan Allen and Kelvin Benjamin really came up short. Benjamin’s injury was the first straw that broke my cash game lineups.

Tight End: 2/3

As I stated in my tight end edition of week three DFS don’ts, the matchup for Delanie Walker was too difficult. He was still featured as a receiver, but the production just wasn’t there this week. Coby Fleener has returned to being absolutely useless as a tight end, no surprise there.

It was so frustrating to watch Eric Ebron drop every easy catch in that game. Stafford, to his credit, still wanted to target him, but Ebron insisted on destroying any trust he had in that passing game.

Kicker: 2/2

Kicker, like most weeks, was easy. Matt Prater was a must play. He’s proven to have a leg capable of making 50+ yard field goals, and, was playing at home in a dome. He delivered 19 points. On the other hand, Younghoe Koo was disappointing per usual.

Defense: 2/3

Both Seattle and Tampa Bay failed tremendously. One team surrendered almost 200 yards rushing, and the other allowed Case Keenum to throw for more than 300 yards. Sadly, the Eagles collapsed in the second half and allowed 24 second-half points.

Overall Score: 14/25

I’m not happy with week three. My DFS earnings took a hit, one of my seasonal teams got demolished, and I was only correct on 56% of my picks. Let’s just get to week four already. We’ll be back tomorrow with the kicker and defense edition of week four DFS don’ts.

 

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Allen Robinson's Injury

Allen Robinson’s injury

Allen Robinson left the game against the Houston Texans in Week 1 after landing awkwardly after a 17-yard catch and was forced out of bounds. It was confirmed by the Jaguars that he did tear his ACL.

He was the main target back in 2015 with 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He struggled in 2016 with 73 receptions, 883 yards and six touchdowns. However, it’s hard to fault Robinson for the struggles because of bad quarterback play.

With Robinson out for the season, we look to other Jaguar receivers to pick up the slack after the Robinson injury and for some fillers to replace him on your fantasy team.

The role for other Jaguar receivers

Even though the significance of Robinson’s injury is high, the Jaguars have depth behind him. If there is one place they might have an excess of talent, it’s at wide receiver. This will open the door for Allen Hurns, who broke out in 2015 with Robinson having 1,031 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

Allen Robinson injury

Robinson, Hurns, Lee (Photo by: firstcoastnews.com)

In 2016, he struggled as did most players for the Jaguars and also dealt with injuries. He was demoted for the 2017 season to the slot with the emergence of Marqise Lee, but will now likely be back to the outside.

After the injury, Hurns led the way in receiving against the Texans with three catches for 42 yards. Hurns is worth the look to replace Robinson on your team if Lee is already owned.

Lee showed some promise after 2016. He finally played all 16 games after three seasons and got 105 targets, 63 receptions, 851 yards and three touchdowns. In an article from Bleacher Report, writer Adam Wells had a quote from Bob Sylvester of Fantasypros about Lee’s progression.

“Lee started just six games last season but arguably outperformed Allen Robinson. It is possible that he sees an extra 30 targets this season now that they know what they have in Lee. He is due for significant positive TD regression too.”

Now this doesn’t mean start Lee week to week. However, he does become a more dependable option at the flex position.

Players to Replace Robinson on your team

Although a disappointing 2016 season, Robinson was still the number one target in Jacksonville. That’s not easy to replace, especially in fantasy.

The first option to look to is the backup on the Jaguars, which is Hurns. Lee is also available in many leagues. Though this option could be risky because they don’t throw the ball like they used to. Now they just hand it off to rookie Leonard Fournette, who had 26 carries on Sunday.

Allen Robinson injury

Allen Robinson (Photo by: jaguars.com)

One receiver that could help in the long run is Eagles receiver Nelson Agholor. He has trouble since entering the NFL, but last Sunday looked like an improvement with six catches for 86 yards and a 58-yard touchdown. He still has other receivers in front of him, but if this is the breakout we’ve waited for, then this might be the time to pick him up.

Another receiver is preseason sensation Kenny Golladay of the Detroit Lions. Golladay just caught four passes for 69 yards and two touchdowns. He is a big red zone threat thanks to his 6-foot-4 height.

But Detroit has a lot of options such as Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron. However, he does have a hot hand and has proven himself in preseason.

If Robinson was a WR3/flex, then you could look at trending running backs. Kerwynn Williams is now the starter in Arizona after David Johnson’s injury. Javorius Allen could slide to fill the role in Baltimore now with Danny Woodhead out four to six weeks. Rookie Tarik Cohen could also be an interesting pickup. The Human Joystick led the Bears in both rushing and receiving in his NFL regular season debut, finishing with 113 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. He will continue to be a key contributor in the offense.

 

Featured image from si.com

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week three DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Report Card

With the first Sunday in the books, it’s time to review week one and my predictions. I’ll be reviewing my picks from last week’s DFS Dont’s article series, as well as the picks I made on the Suck My DFS Podcast. Picks aside, I started off the year right by finishing in the money in all 36 of my FanDuel contests. Without further adieu, here is the report card edition of my week one DFS Dont’s.

Quarterback: 1/5

Last week, I stated that Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Stafford should stay off your DFS lineups. I was feeling great about my Stafford prediction after the first quarter, but that feeling quickly subsided. Stafford finished with 28.08 points. Roethlisberger didn’t set the world on fire, but I’ll chalk his 16.72 points up as a loss for me.

On the Suck My DFS Podcast, I chose three quarterbacks I liked in cash games and GPP’s: Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Brian Hoyer. Both Wilson and Hoyer scored single digit points. On the bright side, Wilson didn’t cost me in my cash games. Thankfully, Carson Wentz paid dividends on his $7,100 price tag, as he scored 19.88 points.

I ended up playing three quarterbacks in my cash lineups: Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Carson Wentz. I couldn’t find a good combination for my GPP contests, so I decided to pull my money out this week and just play cash games. I’m not regretting that decision.

Running Back: 3/6

In my running back DFS Dont’s piece, I advised that you stay away from Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Marshawn Lynch. I had know idea the Jacksonville Jaguars would dominate the Houston Texans in such dramatic fashion. I look forward to cashing in on Fournette in the future as he scored 19.9 points in his debut. Elliott’s $8,700 price tag isn’t usually worth 16.5 points; however, I’ll mark it as a loss since that’s much better than how David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell produced. I told you to stay away from Lynch until we know exactly how his workload will look, hopefully you did, as he scored a whopping 9.7 points.

On the podcast, I gushed over LeSean McCoy and Todd Gurley. They scored 18.4 and 18.1 points each. Sadly, I also loved Bilal Powell, who produced a disappointing single digit performance. Once again, I lucked out with my Powell prediction since I didn’t partake in any GPP contests in week one.

Wide Receiver: 1/5

My week one DFS Dont’s at this position included Dez Bryant, Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry. I was dead on about Bryant and his personal match up against Janoris Jenkins, as he scored a disappointing 5.3 points. However, I was totally wrong about Golden Tate. He, unlike Dez, found a way to overcome a tough match up and produced 16.4 points. Jarvis Landry had an unexpected bye, so I won’t be counting that prediction at all.

In my podcast picks, I pounded the table on AJ Green, Doug Baldwin and Martavis Bryant. I was wrong on all three as they severely under produced.

Tight End: 3/5

Eric Ebron was awful, so that gives me a mark in the win column. Yet again, my other prediction was set to play in the rescheduled Miami vs Tampa Bay game, so throw out O.J. Howard this week.

The tight ends I liked were Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Jack Dolye and Zach Miller. Walker and Ertz finished in the top six among tight ends in week one. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough volume for Doyle or Miller to get a chance to be productive or else they would have hit as well. I’ll take the two losses on Doyle and Miller.

Kicker: 2/2

It’s pretty straight forward, stop paying up for kickers. The position is way too dependent on coaching decisions, weather and offensive competency. Nine kickers scored double digit points in week one, and Justin Tucker was not one of them.

On the other hand, my podcast pick clicked, Ryan Succop. It wasn’t rocket science. Here’s the criteria for which I pick my kicker. Is he less than $4,800? Is he at home? Is he favored? Is the weather good? Succop met all of these requirements.

Defense: 2/4

In my first ever DFS Dont’s piece, I made the case not to play the Pittsburgh or Buffalo defense. Neither one of them paid off like most had hoped, but, neither imploded like I had hoped. Given your defense starts with 10 points, I’ll say I was wrong about the Steelers, since they scored 12, and was right about the Bills, since they only scored nine.

We crushed our defensive picks to click. Both Will and I were all in on Los Angeles in week one and they did not disappoint. On the other hand, I offered the Arizona defense as a potential GPP pivot from the Rams, and they only scored eight points.

Week One DFS Dont’s Report Card: 12/27

On a percentage basis, I was not good. I only connected on 44% of my picks in week one. By my standards, and at almost any academic institution, 44% is a failure. Now, no one gets 100% of their predictions right, but, I need to operate in the 60-70 percentile to feel like it was a good week. You can check out all of my week one DFS Dont’s articles here. We’ll start with week two tomorrow as we break down what kicker and defenses you should avoid.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

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week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Tight Ends

Now that the Kicker and Defense is out of the way, let’s start looking at real Football players. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in NFL DFS. The drop off from top tier players like Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce to the next is dramatic. I look for value at this position. Specifically, I want players with medium/low salaries that can produce double digit points. Without further delay, let’s examine which tight ends are part of my week one DFS dont’s.

Eric Ebron – Fanduel Price $5,500

2016 could not have been more frustrating for season-long owners of Eric Ebron. Yet again, he failed to reach one thousand yards receiving. And, he had one more touchdown reception than I did last year. Not to mention, Ebron has a propensity for getting and staying injured.

On the other hand, there will be a plethora of red zone targets up for grabs with Anquan Boldin’s departure. I think he will no doubt have more than one touchdown this season and more than 711 yards receiving. However, his match up with the vaunted Cardinals secondary is a huge problem.

In 2016, the Cardinals secondary was elite against tight ends. Through their first eight games, the Cardinals never surrendered more than five catches and 53 yards receiving. Not to mention, they allowed zero receiving touchdowns to tight ends. They even pitched a complete game shutout against the Jets in week six. Meaning, they didn’t allow a single tight end to register a stat.

week one DFS Dont's

Will the Cardinals’ defense shut down Eric Ebron and justify his placement on my week one DFS Dont’s list?

I know Ebron is talented. I know he plays in an offense that throws the ball at least 30 times a game. But, I have no confidence that he will produce against this elite unit, or, that he’ll even be healthy enough to play the whole game. There are plenty more attractive options at tight end this week. Given his situation, Eric Ebron was the easiest member of my week one DFS Dont’s among any position.

OJ Howard – Fanduel Price $5,400

The hype around OJ Howard astounds me. Have we already forgotten that Cameron Brate, the Buccaneers starting tight end, tied for leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns among tight ends? Yes, I know that Hunter Henry, a backup rookie tight end, was who he tied with. However, this situation is different.

week one DFS Dont's

There’s no denying OJ Howard’s talent, but will the opportunities be there in week one for him to make a DFS impact? (Photo Courtesy of; Bucs Report)

Antonio Gates has clearly lost a step or two. This gave Henry the opportunity to get on the field and demand targets. Brate on the other hand is a young player at his position and has a tremendous red zone chemistry with Jameis Winston. I do believe at some point this year Howard overtakes Brate, but not the first week of the season.

Not only is Howard not the starting tight end, he would at best be the third receiving option if he was. Mike Evans led the NFL in targets last season and DeSean Jackson wasn’t brought in to be a decoy on half the snaps.

Apart from Howard’s current situation, rookie tight ends historically don’t start strong and rarely score 100 non-PPR points in a season. By non-PPR standards, the three best rookie seasons in NFL history by tight ends are Rob Gronkowski in 2010 (114 points), Cam Cleeland in 1998 (104 points), and Jeremy Shockey in 2002 (102 points).

Two of those three players will go to the Hall of Fame at their positions and for the record, only Cleeland, who I know you’ve never heard of before, scored double digit points in his rookie debut. If you want to compete in GPP’s or large tournaments, you’ll need your tight end to score double digit points.

If I haven’t made a strong enough case yet, this is sure to convince you. OJ Howard, the backup tight end, is $200 more expensive than the starter Cameron Brate! You are literally throwing away money for less production if you decide to roster OJ Howard. It only makes sense that Howard will go off now that I’ve taken such a strong stance, but the evidence suggests he belongs on my week one DFS Dont’s.

 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

 

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

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