Week 10 DFS don'ts

Week 10 DFS don’ts: Wide receiver

Earlier this week, I hinted at a philosophy change in how I’m approaching lineups this year. It started with the kicker and defense positions, and now it has shifted to the wide receiver position.

This week, my lineup construction is focusing on mid-priced wide receivers. Let’s dive into which players we need to fade in order to cash this week in the wide receiver edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

T.Y. Hilton: FanDuel Price $7,500

It pains me to do this because T.Y. won me a lot of money last weekend, but he’s almost unplayable in my eyes. That may be a strong assertion, but let’s really examine his performance last weekend. Hilton was targeted eight times. That’s good. He converted nine of those targets into five catches. That’s a 63 percent catch rate, which is not so good.

He started off hot with a 45 yard touchdown catch. Big plays are something he’s known for, so that’s not unusual. So on his other four catches, he averaged 32.5 yards per catch. This includes a play in which he was not touched down by a defender so he was able to recover and run into the end zone. 32.5 yards per catch is absolutely unsustainable, especially, when examining his matchup this week.

Hilton will face the Steelers at home this Sunday. This defensive unit is second only to Jacksonville in terms of pass defense. This is a combination of their pass rush and improved play in the secondary. There is no way the Colts will be able to fend off this Steelers pass rush long enough for Hilton to get open down the field.

He of course has the ability to make a big play, but it hasn’t come against a single top 15 pass defense. Hilton in my mind is the easiest fade of the week at the wide receiver position.

Stefon Diggs: FanDuel Price $7,000

Week 10 DFS don'ts

Can Stefon Diggs overcome a season of inconsistencies and injuries and produce on Sunday against Josh Norman and the Redskins? (Photo from ESPN.com)

This season has been a series of highs and lows for Stefon Diggs and this entire Vikings team. Diggs started off great in their win against the Saints and followed that up with a single-digit performance against Pittsburgh in Case Keenum’s first start.

Since Week 2, Diggs has one game above 30 points, one game above 10 points, and two games below five points. Sprinkle in a few missed games with an injury, and this paints a picture of an incredibly inconsistent season.

Diggs and the Vikings will travel to Washington to play a depleted Redskins team. He will likely see Josh Norman for the majority of the afternoon.

This season, Norman has not shadowed an opposing wide receiver. However, he will see a lot of Diggs at the left corner position. Norman is surrendering a catch on 47 percent of the times he is targeted. This should be a great matchup for the viewers, but one we should consider fading.

The last reason you should consider fading Diggs is the fact that Adam Thielen is being targeted more by Keenum. Given Digg’s health issues, the last two games the two receivers have played together were against Chicago in Week 5 and Cleveland in Week 8. In those two games, Thielen was targeted a total of eight more times than Diggs.

Since they are both the same price, the choice between them depends on your contests. If you’re playing a cash game, Thielen is your player. If you’re a tournament player, use Diggs for his upside.

DeSean Jackson: FanDuel Price $6,300

At this point, we know exactly who DeSean Jackson is. In seasonal fantasy, you play him every week as a fringe wide receiver or flex and deal with the down games, because when Jackson hits it’s great.

However, DFS is a different story. I only consider Jackson when I know exactly which corner he will face, and if that corner has a tendency to give up big plays. That’s why he was a great option against the Cardinals in Week 6 because he was matching up with Justin Bethel.

Sadly, his matchup and quarterback make Jackson a shoe-in for the Week 10 DFS don’ts list. Jackson will likely be facing Morris Claiborne. Since leaving Dallas, Claiborne is playing incredibly well, and the Jets are deploying him in shadow coverage. Here is a record of Claiborne’s performance so far when shadowing a wide receiver according to Pro Football Focus.

week 10 DFS don'ts

There are some impressive names on this list that he’s covered. Claiborne is allowing a 56 percent catch rate. But, he’s only being targeted on 15 percent of routes ran against him. Jackson could overcome this tough matchup and score a long touchdown, but I like plenty of more reliable players in his price range.

 

Featured Image from Sports Bank

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week 10 DFS don'ts

Week 10 DFS don’ts: Tight end

Like the kicker and defense positions, I find myself in the middle of the tight end price range most weeks. However, this week presents a problem. The expensive tight ends are in good situations, but that middle price range that I love is filled with problematic players. Let’s find out which landmines to avoid at the tight end edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $6,100

I never thought I’d see the day that Jack Doyle is one of the most expensive tight ends on the FanDuel Sunday main slate. Sadly, he won’t be on any of my rosters this weekend.

Doyle’s workload and connection with Jacoby Brissett has improved dramatically over the past few weeks. He’s usually a player I’m targeting, but his matchup against the Steelers is absolutely brutal

This season, the Steelers pass defense has only allowed a single touchdown to a fantasy relevant tight end. Tyler Kroft scored against the Steelers in Week 7 and was the only tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against this unit all season. Top players at the position like Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph failed to score at least 10 points or find the end zone.

One reason for their success against this position is their pass rush. However, I believe the main reason for their success against tight ends comes down to one player, Ryan Shazier. He is currently ranked as the fifth best linebacker according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers have been deploying him in underneath coverage against tight ends and allowing T.J. Watt to rush the passer.

That’s the reason why Shazier has zero sacks this year and why Watt is tied for second on the team with four. Shazier’s ability to cover tight ends underneath severely limits the amount of targets and catches the opposition can accumulate.

I don’t see the Colts being able to protect Brissett long enough to attack this defense down the field with Doyle. Therefore, I think Doyle’s run as one of the best daily fantasy tight ends comes to an end this week.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,300

I thought I was done talking about Eric Ebron, but I was wrong. The Lions face the Cleveland Browns this weekend, one of the worst teams against the tight end in the NFL. Ebron is going to get hyped up all week as a great “under the radar” option at tight end, but don’t fall for it.

The Lions have been using their backup tight end Darren Fells more than Ebron. And, there is one problem for either of these tight ends this weekend in a great matchup.

The Lions have had an incredibly bad red zone offense this season, especially the last two weeks. This presents a great opportunity for the Lions to get right in the red zone against a team that is so bad against the tight end. However, Ebron has to be on the field in order to capitalize on this matchup. It’s too bad he’s been playing second fiddle to Fells in terms of snaps since Week 4.

week 10 DFS don'ts

Snap count information from Rotowire

Not only is Fells getting more playing time than Ebron, he’s seeing substantially more targets in the red zone. During that same stretch, Fells has 11 red zone targets and six catches. Ebron only has five red zone targets and a grand total of zero catches.

It’s evident that Matthew Stafford does not trust him near the goal line. If any tight end is scoring against the Browns in the red zone, I bet my money on Fells and not Ebron.

Vernon Davis: FanDuel Price $5,300

Vernon Davis came through for a lot of DFS owners in Week 9. On the road against a banged up Seattle defense, Davis had a productive day given his price. However, I don’t see it happening this weekend when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I’m making this pick regardless of Jordan Reed’s status for Sunday’s game.

If Reed plays, Davis loses a lot of opportunities and is therefore a shoe-in for the Week 10 DFS don’t list. If Reed sits, Davis draws a tremendously tough individual matchup against Harrison Smith. Smith is grading out as the NFL’s best safety. He’s been incredible in coverage this year, and I don’t see Davis at his advanced age being able get open.

Davis joins Doyle and Ebron as tight ends to keep off your roster in this edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

 

Featured image from Indy Star

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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Week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Report card

Week 9 was the first time all season I cashed when the week number was a multiple of 3. I know, why would anyone keep track of that? Well, when you lose badly on Week 3 and 6, you are highly aware of Week 9, 12, 15 moving forward.

Anyways, it was my best week of the year in terms of profit and picks. We nailed almost everything on the Suck My DFS Podcast and our picks for the Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Quarterback: 4/6

On our podcast, my three quarterbacks to build around were Russell Wilson, Alex Smith and Jared Goff. Now, I ended up not playing Alex Smith on my cash games and taking my co-host’s advice on Jacoby Brissett in my tournaments. I missed out on a great game from Goff, but still managed to have a good day as all three of these quarterbacks made value in cash games and probably helped you win a tournament.

On the other hand, Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota managed to have good games and prove me wrong. However, Brock Osweiler was not good. It might seem cheap, but I saw tournament lineups on FanDuel with Osweiler so I’m counting it as a win.

Running Back: 4/6

I was struggling to predict the running back position all season. But finally, in the running back edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts, I came through. Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson and Alex Collins all failed to make value in a cash game, and I couldn’t be happier.

Conversely, Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey were great. Gurley was a staple in my tournament lineups.

Sadly, I whiffed on Mark Ingram while my co-host nailed it with Alvin Kamara. Thankfully, Gurley carried my lineups to victory.

Wide Receiver: 4/6

Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald all failed to make value. I’m not counting Jamison Crowder. He ended up not being active, so I won’t count that as a win or a loss.

Thank goodness for that Tyreek Hill play at the end of the first half! I haven’t sweated a game harder all year. While that play was great, Hill came up just short of doubling his value for cash purposes, so that’s a loss.

I don’t know if you heard, but T.Y. Hilton had a decent game, right? His price was too attractive this week and forced me to play him on all my tournament lineups. Russell Shepard ended up being a dud, but not a bad week as a whole though.

Tight End: 3/5

For my Week 9 DFS don’ts at the tight end position, I named Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Ryan Griffin. Kelce had a great game and finished as the second highest scoring tight end on Sunday. Graham and Griffin both came up short.

On the podcast, I liked Evan Engram and Vernon Davis. Like Tyreek Hill, Davis came up less than a point short of making value in a cash game. I sadly played Jack Doyle instead of Engram. I couldn’t find a way to fit him in at that price despite really liking him.

Kicker: 1/3

This was my worst call of the season at this position. I totally missed on Brandon McManus, but I wasn’t going anywhere near that Denver offense. Mike Nugent came up very small, but he wasn’t needed. Cody Parkey didn’t make value, so that’s my only win at this position.

Defense: 2/3

Jacksonville was the chalk this past weekend, and I was happy to swallow it on all my lineups. Cincinnati wasn’t able to get it done against a running game without Leonard Fournette. And, if not for a touchdown, Houston’s defense would have failed to make value as well.

Overall Score: 18/29

I don’t know if I’ll have a week this good again, but I’ll take 62 percent correct. Hopefully Week 10 will be as good. Check out our latest piece on which kicker(s) and defense(s) to keep off your DFS lineups.

 

Featured image from Grizzly Bear Blues

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week 10 DFS don'ts

Week 10 DFS don’ts: Kicker and defense

My philosophy on choosing kicker may be changing. I’m a big proponent of not paying up for kickers. I usually want to find a player between in the $4,600 to $4,800 range, who’s playing in a dome, and preferable at home. However, I’ve been questioning paying up for a kicker the last few weeks. Defense is still straightforward. I want, what I feel, is the best matchup available. Let’s find out who to keep off our rosters in the first installment of week 10 DFS don’ts.

Matt Bryant: FanDuel Price $5,000

I may be changing my tune when it comes to high-priced kickers, but I surely won’t be playing Matt Bryant this week. First of all, Bryant is dealing with a sneaky injury. Bryant managed to injure his leg in the pregame of Sunday’s contest against the Panthers. Fortunately, it did not lead to a missed field goal or extra point.

At Bryant’s advanced age, I’m not touching him with any chance that he’s not 100%. Atlanta’s offense has been improving, but it hasn’t translated into points for Bryant. For example, he’s only scored double-digit fantasy points once in his last five games. And,  he only had more than two field goal attempts in once in that same five game stretch. Yes, he has suffered from game flow issues that have forced the Falcons to attempt to convert more 4th downs than usual. But, I don’t see them improving so much that Bryant stock is boosted enough for me to consider him.

Let’s not forget, Matt Bryant is the same price at Patriots kicker, Stephen Gostkowski. The Patriots will be visiting the Broncos and that vaunted secondary. I could easily see Gostkowski attempting multiple 40 or 50 yard field goals. Due to his health, price, and the Falcons offense, Matt Bryant lands squarely on the week 10 DFS don’ts list.

Patrick Murray: FanDuel Price $4,600

Once again, this is my weekly PSA about what kicker to avoid if you’re dumpster diving at this position. I’m going to be honest…I didn’t know who Patrick Murray was before reviewing this week’s slate. Now that I know who he is, I can tell you not to waste $4,600 of your FanDuel salary on him.

He plays for a completely anemic offense, potentially the worst NFL offense. With the news that Jameis Winston will not play for a few weeks and the Mike Evans suspension, this offense is almost untouchable. They will face a resurgent New York Jets team. Specifically, a front seven that is playing inspired Football against a struggling offense. I don’t know how many times the Buccaneers will get into field goal range and I don’t know Murray’s leg strength. Just make it easy on yourself, and pay an extra $100 or $200 for a better play.

Green Bay Packers: FanDuel Price $4,500

week 10 DFS don'ts

It’s clear that Brett Hundley’s deficiencies are taking it’s toll on their defensive unit. (Courtesy of; Milwaukee Journal)

My initial thoughts on this slate from a team defense perspective are unclear. I legitimately think you can make a case that every defense $4,600 and above are in a good situation. The New York Jets at $4,600 are the most questionable. However, I think the Packers are an absolute must avoid.

I’m writing this article ahead of their game against the Lions, so we’ll have new information soon. But, they will be playing on the at Chicago on a short week with backup quarterback. Chicago’s offense is not scary but they have a clear identity. Jordan Howard is an absolute monster in terms of his workload. He was able to have success on the ground against the Saints on the road.

It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Mitch Trubisky improves and is able to make a handful of down field throws. Conversely, I think the Bears defense will give this offense multiple short fields and apply pressure on Hundley. Even at a minimum price, I don’t think the Packers are worth a play this week.

Buffalo Bills: FanDuel Price $4,200

The Bills will host Drew Brees and the red-hot New Orleans Saints this Sunday. I’m totally out on the Bills this week. The last time an NFC South team came to town, the Buccaneers lit up this defense. Now that New Orleans is incredibly balanced, and Buffalo has to fill the void caused by the Marcell Dareus, I don’t think they have a prayer at stopping the Saints. Also, there’s another defense that I prefer this week for just $100 more. The Buffalo Bills join the Green Bay Packers, Matt Bryant and Patrick Murray on this edition of the week 10 DFS don’ts.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of The Falcoholic 

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Quarterback

If you are trying to cash in a large GPP or finish in the money in all of your cash games, you have to make value at the quarterback position. What do I mean? I mean your quarterback at an absolute minimum has to double his value. So, let’s examine which quarterbacks, beyond the obvious players like Carson Wentz and Andy Dalton, are not likely to double their value. Let’s find out which quarterbacks we need to keep off our lineups in the quarterback edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Marcus Mariota: FanDuel Price $7,800

Despite Marcus Mariota being completely healthy, he’s not someone to consider this week. We traditionally love quarterbacks with rushing upside because they have a higher floor than most quarterbacks. Mariota absolutely fits that description, but it won’t be enough this week.

The Baltimore Ravens have been unbelievable against quarterbacks this season. They have only allowed one quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game. That quarterback was Blake Bortles, and that game took place in London. What I’m getting at is that performance was an outlier and not who the Ravens are. This defense has also held their past four opponents to under 200 net passing yards. This defense also has a top 10 corner, according to Pro Football Focus, with Jimmy Smith.

Matchup aside, Mariota will likely be without his tight end Delanie Walker, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury. The Ravens are also more susceptible on the ground than through the air. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Titans try to pound DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry 10 to 15 times a piece.

As always, there are far superior players in Mariota’s price range this week if you don’t want to pay up at quarterback.

Matt Ryan: FanDuel Price $7,600

Matt Ryan’s 2017 performance goes beyond a normal regression to the mean. Of course it wasn’t realistic to expect a similar season, but this drop-off is startling.

week 9 DFS don'ts

The look on Matt Ryan’s face says it all and doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in me as a DFS player. (Photo from Sporting News)

This year, Ryan has just as many multi-interception games as he does multi-touchdown games. This past Sunday was the first time all season where Ryan threw for more than one touchdown and did not throw an interception. To his credit, he performed in unconventional conditions on the road. However, he doesn’t get to play the Jets this weekend.

For the same reasons Devonta Freeman is on the Week 9 DFS don’ts list, Ryan has a tough road matchup. Granted, Ryan has inexplicably been better on the road in terms of fantasy production, but it doesn’t happen for him this weekend. Yes, Julio Jones has performed well in this matchup, but those performances have come at home against the Panthers. Even if Jones has a monster game, it’s still possible that Matt Ryan doesn’t make value.

I can’t believe I’ve gone three paragraphs into Matt Ryan and haven’t complained about Steve Sarkisian yet. It’s actually because I don’t blame him for Ryan’s regression as much as I blame him for Freeman’s. It isn’t Sarkisian’s fault Matt Ryan is missing open receivers. However, it is his fault for not recognizing Ryan’s struggles and adjusting accordingly.

Until I see the Falcons establish a clear identity, I’m off them moving forward.

Brock Osweiler: FanDuel Price $6,000

Don’t get cute. I only have him listed because I have been talking to players who are seriously giving this some thought, as he would only need 12 points to make value in a cash game lineup.

Have we already forgotten how bad he was last year with the Texans? He’ll be making his first start, on the road, against a great front seven. Not to mention, the Eagles’ secondary is no longer the pushover that they were at the beginning of the season.

This is an absolute trap for DFS players. Do not fall for it. Osweiler joins Mariota and Ryan on the Week 9 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image from Tennessee Titans

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Wide receiver

Last Sunday was a rough day for wide receivers, unless your entire lineup featured the Seahawks and Texans. Top tier players like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones disappointed. DeAndre Hopkins was the only name brand receiver to finish among the top ten in scoring.

Instead, the top ten featured under the radar players like Paul Richardson, Robby Anderson and Marvin Jones Jr. Let’s dive into which players we need to avoid this Sunday in the wide receiver edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Mike Evans: FanDuel Price $8,500

Despite the struggles of the Buccaneers, Mike Evans has still garnered a lot of targets. He should have been a top producer, as he had a long touchdown revoked due to an offsides penalty, which stopped play.

Evans faces the Saints this weekend. Historically, we look at this matchup and automatically insert Evans into our lineups. However, that is not the case anymore.

Wide receiver success, more than any other position, comes down to their individual matchup. This Sunday, Evans will face Saints rookie Marshon Lattimore. Through the first eight weeks, Lattimore is ranked as the best corner in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. Here’s a look at what Lattimore has done this season when he shadows the oppositions best receiver.

week 9 DFS don'ts

Stats on shadow coverage are provided by Pro Football Focus.

While the Saints have only deployed Lattimore in shadow coverage twice, the results are staggering. Evans’ size and catch radius does allow him to overcome tough matchups. That could very well happen, but I’m not willing to pay the $8,500 price given his incredibly challenging matchup.

Michael Thomas: FanDuel Price $7,600

week 9 DFS don'ts

Can Michael Thomas overcome his recent red zone woes and produce against the Buccaneers? (Photo from UPI.com)

Yes, I believe the two best receivers in this game will disappoint this week. Unlike Evans, Michael Thomas does not have a bad, or even unfavorable matchup. Sadly, Thomas’ placement on my Week 9 DFS don’ts is the result of this New Orleans Saints offense, which is primarily rushing focused.

Thomas is incredibly talented and is playing with a Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees. Traditionally, this is a plug and play, no questions asked.

However, the Saints offense has morphed into a rush-first offense, specifically in the red zone. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have taken over the red zone workload, via the run or the pass. In the past two games, Thomas has had a total of two red zone targets, including one target inside the 10-yard line.

That is simply not enough opportunity to score points. The Saints have clearly shifted to being a more balanced offense with their two backs. There is no longer enough volume for Thomas to produce without getting in the end zone. Maybe that changes this weekend, as the Buccaneers can score points. However, I’ll take the wait and see approach when it comes to Thomas and his red zone role moving forward.

Larry Fitzgerald: FanDuel Price $7,000

It’s safe to say that this is the end for Larry Fitzgerald and his DFS production. If Carson Palmer couldn’t target Fitz on a consistent basis, what makes us think that Drew Stanton can fair any better?

Stanton has played 22 games since he started with the Cardinals in 2014. Since then, he’s thrown nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions, with a 6.3 average yards per attempt.

On top of poor quarterback play, Fitz has struggled tremendously on the road. He’s averaged nine catches for 106 yards and one touchdown at home, compared to 4.5 catches for 43 yards and zero touchdowns on the road.

This week he plays on the road against San Francisco. Why on earth would I play Fitz for $7,000 when I could get Jarvis Landry at the same price, or Michael Crabtree for $100 more? A multitude of factors have Larry Fitzgerald on the Week 9 DFS don’ts list.

Jamison Crowder: FanDuel Price $5,600

Here’s a landmine you’ll want to avoid if you’re paying down for a wide receiver this weekend. Before last week’s game, Jamison Crowder went the entire season without scoring more than 6.7 points or having more than six catches. Production aside, he is going to get tossed around like a rag doll against this physical Seattle secondary.

Crowder also did not practice on Wednesday due to a hamstring injury, so his health is in question as well. Save your money and pivot to a player like Ted Ginn Jr. or Robert Woods for $100 more. Crowder joins Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald on the Week 9 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured image from Sports Illustrated

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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Week 9 DFS don’ts: Running back

This is my favorite position when creating my DFS lineups. Once I’ve established my tight end, kicker and defense, I go straight to the running back position. There are some great plays at the position this weekend, but there are plenty of players we should avoid at each price tier. Let’s examine who should be left off our lineups in the running back edition of week 9 DFS don’ts.

Devonta Freeman: Fanduel Price $7,100

It pains me to do this, but Devonta Freeman is at the top of this list for the second week in a row. Steve Sarkisian proved to us that we cannot play Freeman until further notice. In an absolute monsoon against the Jets, he only had 12 carries for 41 yards and one catch for 20 yards. Conversely, Tevin Coleman was given 14 carries and turned those opportunities into 82 yards. Yes, the bulk of his production came on one play, but the startling fact is that he carried the ball two more times than Freeman. In DFS we want to target players who will great a large amount of opportunities, or players with an unusually favorable matchup. Now, we can no longer say Freeman will have a workload worthy of his price tag.

On top of his decreasing workload, Freeman has a brutal matchup against the Carolina Panthers this weekend. They have consistently graded out as one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers are ranked as the 7th best defense against the run. The only running back to have success against this defense was Jordan Howard, who has one of the heaviest workloads in terms of carries in the NFL. Until Freeman can reestablish himself as a 20 carry per game player, he’s untouchable at his current price.

C.J. Anderson: FanDuel Price $6,500

week 9 DFS don'ts

What started off as a promising season for C.J. Anderson has quickly turned south with the emergence of Charles and Booker. (Courtesy of; Unsportsmanlike Conduct)

Things have spiraled out of control in Denver. Trevor Siemian has proved he isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback. He’s been so bad that Vance Joseph is turning to freaking Brock Osweiler to help remedy their offensive woes. To top it all off, they have reduced C.J. Anderson to just another running back in a committee.

I talked about this stat earlier in the week. The Broncos have not lost a football game in 2017 when Anderson carries the ball 20 or more times. Conversely, they have lost every single game in which Anderson fails to hit that 20 carry mark. Now that Devontae Booker has carved out a role alongside Jamaal Charles, Anderson is absolutely unplayable even at his reduced price.

There is no consistency or predictability in this backfield, so there’s no guarantee he gets goal line carries. Also, this backfield will face on of the best front sevens in the NFL. The Eagles are one of the stingiest defenses against the run and I don’t see that changing this weekend. There are plenty of better options above and below Anderson’s price tag like Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey. After Monday night, Anderson was a shoe-in for the week 9 DFS don’ts list.

Alex Collins: FanDuel Price $5,900

First off, I’d like to say that Alex Collins is incredibly fun to watch. His running style is so physical and violent that I don’t think he can sustain this kind of workload. The only player who has been able to do that is Marshawn Lynch. So, unless you think Collins is the next Marshawn Lynch, I’d fade him. Also, he only received one more carry than Javorious “Buck” Allen last Thursday against the Dolphins.

I don’t see the Ravens leading by multiple scores in the second half this weekend, so Collins will not see anywhere near the same kind of workload against the Titans. Collins joins Anderson and Freeman on my week 9 DFS don’ts at the running back position.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of CBS Sports

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Tight end

In week eight we saw some of the leagues most productive tight ends take a step back. Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski managed to score, but only produced 11.4 and 14.2 respectively. While that’s great for seasonal fantasy teams, those point totals don’t get it done in DFS given their high price. Other players like Hunter Henry and Austin Seferian-Jenkins came up short. Let’s figure out which land mines we need to avoid in the tight end edition of week 9 DFS don’ts.

Travis Kelce: FanDuel Price $7,000

Kelce is in a unique position. He plays on a great offense crafted by Andy Reid and executed to near perfection by Alex Smith. This offense features one player at each position that is fantasy relevant; however, that doesn’t always mean they will produce. For example, Kelce had a great game Monday against Denver. For most DFS players, we knew it was a great spot for him. The way to beat Denver is to attack the middle of the field and avoid their corners.

Conversely, Kelce had a great matchup against the Raiders and their weak secondary and did not produce. Instead, it was Tyreek Hill’s turn to produce. Essentially, Reid designs new plays each week for certain players instead of just targeting them in the normal context of their offense. For example, they would continually flex out Kelce and have three wide receivers to the opposite side. This would force a safety to play one-on-one with Kelce and that’s the formation that he was able to score on.

Statistically, Kelce has been inconsistent week to week. He has three single digit point outings, including a 0.6 point game against the Chargers. He’s gotten more consistent since week five; however, he faces a Cowboys secondary that has been stingy against tight ends. Byron Jones, will likely be guarding Kelce this weekend. He’s currently ranked as a top 50 safety overall according to Pro Football Focus, but is a top 25 safety purely in coverage. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else. After quiet games from Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill, I think those players see the majority of the production this weekend. Travis Kelce makes his first appearance in this series on my week 9 DFS don’ts.

Jimmy Graham: FanDuel Price $6,200

week 9 DFS don'ts

Jimmy Graham has been a touchdown machine the last two weeks, but is his success sustainable moving forward with Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett carving out larger roles? (Courtesy of 247 Sports)

Ughh Jimmy Graham. He was the bane of my DFS existence in week 7. He should have posted a 20 plus point game, but his hands did not allow him to. In week 8, Graham managed to benefit from an awful chop block by Thomas Rawls, which also took away points from my Rusell Wilson to Paul Richardson stack. So, without a fluke penalty, Graham is only targeted four times and loses at least 6.5 points as a result of that one play.

To be fair, Graham is immensely talented as a pass catcher despite his recent woes with drops. And, he plays on an offense with absolutely zero threat of a run game. His placement on the week 9 DFS don’ts list is simply because there are better options in this price range.

Evan Engram is only $100 more expensive and is the number one pass catching threat on his team. You could also pivot down to a Jack Doyle or Jared Cook. It’s evident that Doyle has earned the trust of his quarterback, and Cook has a great matchup Sunday night against the Dolphins.

Ryan Griffin: FanDuel Price $5,200

This pick falls in line with my Cody Parkey reminder in yesterday’s piece. If you are paying down at tight end please don’t waste your time with Ryan Griffin. Deshaun Watson has established that he wants to throw the ball down the field to his wide receivers. Since DeAndre Hopkins see more than 30% of Watson’s targets, there simply isn’t enough opportunity for Griffin at this point. Yes, he has a great matchup against this Colts secondary, but then again, so does every Texans pass catcher. Better options in this price range include Vernon Davis at $5,400 and Ed Dickson at $4,900. Griffin joins Kelce and Graham on my week 9 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Kansas City Chiefs

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

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week 9 DFS don'ts

Week 9 DFS don’ts: Kicker and defense

Week 8 was much kinder to my ego and my bank account than Week 6 and 7. I managed profit in my cash games and tournaments without having a top three scoring kicker or defense.

So, it is possible to overcome a missed pick. However, the boost you get by identifying the right player(s) at each position can set you apart from your competition drastically. Let’s dive into who should be left off your lineups with the kicker and defense edition of Week 9 DFS don’ts.

Brandon McManus: FanDuel Price $4,700

As a rule, I don’t pay up for kickers. My lineup construction process doesn’t allow me to pay, at most, more than $4,900 for a kicker. This past week was good for you if you paid up, but I won’t be doing so in Week 9. One player I’ll certainly be avoiding in the mid-price range is Brandon McManus.

Kickers are tied to their offense and the stadium they are kicking in, and McManus is more so than anyone. This week he will not be kicking in the confine of Mile High Stadium. Automatically, we have to discount his upside, as he’s less likely to connect from long distance. His last outing against the Giants was awful. He failed to connect on two of his three attempts.

McManus is also tied to an offense with an identity crisis. When C.J. Anderson has 20 or more rushing attempts, the Broncos are 3-0. Conversely, when Andersen gets fewer than 11 attempts, the Broncos are 0-3. I’m writing this article ahead of the Monday night game against the Chiefs, but I think the trend will continue.

During that stretch when the Broncos committed to running the ball, McManus averaged 7.6 points per game. When they are not running the ball, McManus averages a full point less. In DFS, every point counts, so I will be staying away from McManus this weekend when they visit the Eagles.

Cody Parkey: FanDuel Price $4,500

This is just a reminder that if you’re bargain shopping at the kicker position, please don’t go with Cody Parkey. At this point, accidentally playing Parkey is inexcusable.

Since Week 1, he’s had zero games where he scored double-digit points, including two games where he scored zero points. He’s now tied to an unpredictable offense with a revolving door at quarterback and an offensive line that cannot create room for Jay Ajayi.

Please, avoid Parkey like the plague and pivot to a guy like Adam Vinatieri if you’re playing a minimum priced kicker.

Houston Texans: FanDuel Price $5,200

Week 9 DFS don'ts

Can the Texans bounce back from a completely inept performance in Seattle against the division rival Colts? (Photo from Torro Times)

We talked about this at length last week on the Suck My DFS Podcast. This Houston defense was going into the game with a vastly inflated ranking. Since losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, they played Cleveland and had their bye week.

Even worse, they had extra time to prepare for a Seattle offense that cannot run the football. It doesn’t matter what pitiful running back they play, their offensive line is totally incapable of creating running lanes. Against a one-dimensional offense, the Texans allowed Russell Wilson and company to light them up for more than 40 points.

This defense will now host their division rival, the Indianapolis Colts. This Colts offense just went on the road and put together a decent performance against a good Cincinnati defense.

Even if the Houston offense clicks for 28 or more points, the Colts will still be able to move the ball against this injury-stricken Houston team.

They will not be nearly as bad as they were against Seattle. However, I struggle to see them making value, since Cincinnati only came through on a fluke pick-six by a defensive linemen.

Cincinnati Bengals: FanDuel Price $4,600

Speak of the devil and they shall appear. I love playing defenses who are facing an offense that is in an identity crisis like the Broncos or the Buccaneers. This Sunday, the Bengals will face a team that has gone all in on their current identity. The Jaguars are going to run the ball over 30 times and play suffocating defense.

The Bengals, in a spot in which they were a double-digit home favorite, should have lost to an inferior team. The Bengals themselves are struggling with their identity, since they continue to limit the touches of their best running back and not target one of the leagues premiere receivers.

The Jaguars defense could totally shut down the Bengals offense with their incredible pass rush and corners. Thus, the Bengals defense will eventually break like the Pittsburgh Steelers did and give up long runs.

There are better options in play at this price range, or at the very top of the board. The Bengals join the Texans as two defenses to avoid on my Week 9 DFS don’ts.

 

Featured image from Sporting News

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

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week 8 DFS don'ts

Week 8 DFS don’ts: Report Card

Week eight couldn’t have come fast enough. After two consecutive weeks of losing, my lineups bounced back in a big way. My cash lineups featured LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram, while my tournament entries were carried by Russell Wilson and Paul Richardson. Thankfully, I’m able to get back to writing these report card pieces. So let’s review my picks on the Suck My DFS Podcast and my week 8 DFS don’ts.

Quarterback: 1/3

While Drew Brees was solid, he failed to double his production against a stingy Chicago defense. The Saints commitment to running the ball is severely cutting into Brees’ upside. Russell Wilson came up big as usual. We talked on the Suck My DFS Podcast  about Wilson’s perceived tough matchup against the Texans. Since losing JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus, they played Cleveland and had their bye. We knew Wilson would play well. Phillip Rivers didn’t look right. Maybe he’s dealing with an injury or his unorthodox release is taking a toll on him at his age. Whatever it is, he’s off my radar moving forward.

Running Back: 4/6

I was bullish on Le’Veon Bell against the Lions. He was incredibly disappointing given his $9,400 price tag when you could have played Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy for a huge discount. Mark Ingram, despite his two fumbles, made value and counts as a win this week. Joe Mixon would also have counted as a win if he can freaking fall forward into the end zone on a 67 yard screen pass; however, he came up 1.4 points short of making value.

Conversely, I nailed my week 8 DFS don’ts at this position. Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, and Chris Thompson all failed to make value. Howard and Thompson weren’t complete failures, but, they came up short as a cash game play.

Wide Receiver: 3/6

I was really nervous about my Antonio Brown call this week. The guy is almost matchup proof. Thankfully, the Lions secondary held him in check. Amari Cooper followed up his great performance with an absolute dud against the Bills. Will Fuller…I’ll take the huge “L” on that call. I still think his success is completely unsustainable, but he came through for a lot of DFS players this week.

The weather absolutely crushed my picks at wide receiver. Dez Bryant and Josh Doctson were in great positions to produce, but they had to play in a monsoon. Doctson failed to make value despite his late touchdown. On the other hand, Marvin Jones produced in a tough matchup and put me over the top in all of my cash contests with his 15.8 points.

Tight End: 2/4

I’ll never complain about splitting on tight ends. Unfortunately, I wish the split would have come in favor of my DFS do’s, not my DFS don’ts. I nailed both tight ends on my DFS don’ts list, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and O.J. Howard. Both players had an anemic fantasy game and weather had a larger impact on their production than I anticipated.

Even though Zach Ertz caught a touchdown, he failed to double his expensive $7,900 price tag. I also thought that Hunter Henry was in position to have a great game. If someone could explain to me why the Chargers continue to use Antonio Gates over Hunter Henry I would really appreciate it.

Kicker: 1/2

I should never doubt Matt Prater when he plays at home. He finished as the highest scoring kicker on the slate. Jake Elliott was a win though. Even in the rain, he came through with 10 points, which was enough for him to make value.

Defense: 1/2

I coincidentally had both the Saints and the Bears in my write ups this week. The Bears failed do produce, even though they were only $4,200 and were saved by two late fumbles by Mark Ingram. On the other side, the Saints also failed to produce given their value. I guess they were surprised that the Bears attempted to throw the ball more than

Overall Score: 12/23

I operated just over the 50% line with my podcast picks and week 8 DFS don’ts. My preliminary thoughts on week 9 aren’t great. The pricing will be tight as there are fewer and fewer value plays at the running back and wide receiver position.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Grizzly Bear Blues

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

To continue enjoying great content from your favorite writers, please contribute to our Patreon account! Every little bit counts. We greatly appreciate all of your amazing support! #TGHPatreon

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

“From Our Haus to Yours”

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