week 10 DFS don'ts

Week 10 DFS don’ts: Tight end

Like the kicker and defense positions, I find myself in the middle of the tight end price range most weeks. However, this week presents a problem. The expensive tight ends are in good situations, but that middle price range that I love is filled with problematic players. Let’s find out which landmines to avoid at the tight end edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $6,100

I never thought I’d see the day that Jack Doyle is one of the most expensive tight ends on the FanDuel Sunday main slate. Sadly, he won’t be on any of my rosters this weekend.

Doyle’s workload and connection with Jacoby Brissett has improved dramatically over the past few weeks. He’s usually a player I’m targeting, but his matchup against the Steelers is absolutely brutal

This season, the Steelers pass defense has only allowed a single touchdown to a fantasy relevant tight end. Tyler Kroft scored against the Steelers in Week 7 and was the only tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against this unit all season. Top players at the position like Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph failed to score at least 10 points or find the end zone.

One reason for their success against this position is their pass rush. However, I believe the main reason for their success against tight ends comes down to one player, Ryan Shazier. He is currently ranked as the fifth best linebacker according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers have been deploying him in underneath coverage against tight ends and allowing T.J. Watt to rush the passer.

That’s the reason why Shazier has zero sacks this year and why Watt is tied for second on the team with four. Shazier’s ability to cover tight ends underneath severely limits the amount of targets and catches the opposition can accumulate.

I don’t see the Colts being able to protect Brissett long enough to attack this defense down the field with Doyle. Therefore, I think Doyle’s run as one of the best daily fantasy tight ends comes to an end this week.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,300

I thought I was done talking about Eric Ebron, but I was wrong. The Lions face the Cleveland Browns this weekend, one of the worst teams against the tight end in the NFL. Ebron is going to get hyped up all week as a great “under the radar” option at tight end, but don’t fall for it.

The Lions have been using their backup tight end Darren Fells more than Ebron. And, there is one problem for either of these tight ends this weekend in a great matchup.

The Lions have had an incredibly bad red zone offense this season, especially the last two weeks. This presents a great opportunity for the Lions to get right in the red zone against a team that is so bad against the tight end. However, Ebron has to be on the field in order to capitalize on this matchup. It’s too bad he’s been playing second fiddle to Fells in terms of snaps since Week 4.

week 10 DFS don'ts

Snap count information from Rotowire

Not only is Fells getting more playing time than Ebron, he’s seeing substantially more targets in the red zone. During that same stretch, Fells has 11 red zone targets and six catches. Ebron only has five red zone targets and a grand total of zero catches.

It’s evident that Matthew Stafford does not trust him near the goal line. If any tight end is scoring against the Browns in the red zone, I bet my money on Fells and not Ebron.

Vernon Davis: FanDuel Price $5,300

Vernon Davis came through for a lot of DFS owners in Week 9. On the road against a banged up Seattle defense, Davis had a productive day given his price. However, I don’t see it happening this weekend when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I’m making this pick regardless of Jordan Reed’s status for Sunday’s game.

If Reed plays, Davis loses a lot of opportunities and is therefore a shoe-in for the Week 10 DFS don’t list. If Reed sits, Davis draws a tremendously tough individual matchup against Harrison Smith. Smith is grading out as the NFL’s best safety. He’s been incredible in coverage this year, and I don’t see Davis at his advanced age being able get open.

Davis joins Doyle and Ebron as tight ends to keep off your roster in this edition of Week 10 DFS don’ts.

 

Featured image from Indy Star

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week six DFS don'ts

Week six DFS don’ts: Report Card

An interesting trend is starting to develop. It seems as though every three weeks I’m due for a dip in DFS profitability. Thus far, I’ve only failed to profit in weeks three and six. Does that mean I should just not play in weeks nine, twelve and fifteen? Of course not, if there’s a Sunday slate, I’ll play it. Let’s wrap up week six DFS don’ts with the dreaded report card.

Quarterback: 1/3

As some of you might have noticed, no week six DFS don’ts piece about quarterbacks. Sorry about that, won’t happen again. Anyways, Tom Brady came up just short of doubling his value against the Jets and Kevin Hogan was a huge disappointment. Thankfully, Kirk Cousins redeemed me by finishing as the top fantasy quarterback this weekend.

Running Back: 4/6

Not a bad week at the running back position. Leonard Fournette and Mark Ingram were great for my cash game lineups. Unfortunately, the Denver Broncos didn’t show up and that cost me huge with C.J. Andersen. As far as my week six DFS don’ts at this position, Carlos Hyde proved me wrong. I’m glad to see he’s reestablished himself as the lead back even if it was at my expense. Both Ameer Abdullah and Elijah McGuire failed miserably to double their value.

Wide Receiver: 2/5

I don’t count players who end up being out, so, I’m not counting DeVante Parker as part of my report card. DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Hogan shockingly didn’t produce double their value. I know DeSean Jackson didn’t technically double his value; however, I’m counting this as a win since he still managed to produce with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brandin Cooks came so close to proving me wrong, whereas Demaryius Thomas blew me away with 10 catches for over 130 yards.

Tight End: 1/4

Martellus Bennett was an easy pick. If you couldn’t tell a week ago, you can now. He doesn’t produce in this offense. Darren Fells, despite a lack of targets, still managed to produce. He’s officially supplanted Eric Ebron and is a viable DFS option moving forward. Ryan Griffin and AJ Derby were also bad calls despite great matchups.

Kicker: 2/2

At least I’m continuing to pick this position correctly. Aaron Rodgers injury aside, I didn’t like Mason Crosby going into this week. However, I loved Wil Lutz this week and he more than doubled his value.

Defense: 1/2

I will apologize for everyone who listened to the Suck My DFS Podcast and picked Denver as their defense. They were incredibly disappointing. Thankfully, Jacksonville laid an egg at home as I predicted.

Overall Score: 11/22

50% isn’t great, but, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between who I pick and how much money I win. The weeks I’ve won the most money, I haven’t been great on individual player picks, and vice versa. The best thing about this game is that we can quickly move on to the next week. Come back tomorrow for which kicker and defense you should avoid in week seven.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Grizzly Bear Blues

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link to our podcast on the Podcast page.

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week 6 DFS don'ts

Week 6 DFS don’ts: tight end

This could be the most frustrating position in all of fantasy football. If you’re in a seasonal league, you’re just looking at any tight end who can get you more than zero points. If you’re a DFS degenerate like myself, you’re torn every week between paying up for Zach Ertz, or making a value play like Ryan Griffin. I can’t confidently tell you who will lead the position in scoring this weekend. However, I can tell you which players to fade in the tight end edition of week 6 DFS don’ts.

Martellus Bennett: FanDuel Price $5,500

Have we not learned our lesson? It doesn’t matter who the tight end is; the Green Bay offense doesn’t feature tight ends. What happened when Randall Cobb was inactive against Cincinnati? Conventional wisdom says they would allocate targets to the large, athletic tight end in the middle of the field. Instead, Geronimo Allison had twice as many targets Bennett.

It’s clear this offense prioritizes wide receivers. There’s a reason that Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are first and second in touchdowns since 2016. It took Nelson and Cobb getting hurt against Atlanta to see double-digit targets. Bennett still only managed to turn 11 targets into five catches for 47 yards.

Offensive role aside, Bennett has an awful individual matchup this Sunday against Harrison Smith. While Smith doesn’t get national media coverage, he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. Currently, Pro Football Focus has Smith ranked as the sixth best safety. Please, do yourself a favor, and avoid Martellus Bennett this weekend. There are better options available.

Darren Fells: FanDuel Price $4,900

week 6 DFS don'ts

Darren Fells has done nothing but take advantage of the opportunities he’s been given this season. (Photo from Washington Times).

If you’ve been following this series, or listening to the Suck My DFS Podcast, my disdain for Eric Ebron is well documented. It brought me pure joy to watch him drop a touchdown pass, and then see Darren Fells catch two. However, joy does not equate to DFS viability.

Fells has no doubt been improving this season. Every game, his role becomes more solidified. He even managed to get more snaps than Ebron on Sunday against the Panthers. But, let’s calm down. The workload simply isn’t there.

Yes, Fells scored twice, but he was only targeted twice. That means he maxed out his potential production, and that only equates to 15 points. Considering how awful this position is, that’s great. However, Fells’ floor is way to low to even consider as a DFS option. I’ll be going elsewhere this week as Fells joins Bennett on my week 6 DFS don’ts list.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of Sports Illustrated

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Thursday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

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week 5 DFS don'ts

Week 5 DFS don’ts: tight end

I love this part of the NFL season. With four weeks in the books, we have a much better idea of how these players will be used. This is the time to strike in DFS. We know who the featured players are and which defenses we want to target on a weekly basis. So let’s get started with the tight end edition of week 5 DFS don’ts.

Tyler Kroft: FanDuel Price $5,500

If you listened to the Suck My DFS Podcast last week, I hope you made a ton of money on Tyler Kroft. He had a great week and took advantage of a great matchup.

However, that was last week. Cleveland has been atrocious against the tight end position this season. Kroft also had the second most targets on the Bengals through the first three weeks. It was the perfect situation where opportunity and matchup aligned perfectly, but that was last week.

In week 5, the Bengals face the Bills. The Bills held Matt Ryan to his lowest completion percentage of the season at 57.1 percent. Yes, I know he didn’t have all of his weapons on the outside, but it’s safe to say that Matt Ryan’s offensive line is vastly superior to Andy Dalton’s. Thus, Dalton and company are going to struggle to move the football consistently.

Apart from their performance against the Falcons, the Bills have been tremendous against the pass all season. As a unit, they’ve only surrendered one touchdown pass through the first four games. That score came on the road against Atlanta, who has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.

Analysis aside, playing Tyler Kroft goes against one of my core DFS beliefs: Don’t chase points.

Kroft took advantage of a great matchup. That’s it. He will not produce near to the same level this Sunday. His price has increased dramatically. For these reasons, Kroft has landed on my week 5 DFS don’ts list.

Eric Ebron: FanDuel Price $5,200

week 5 DFS don'ts

Eric Ebron’s inconsistent play has landed him on the week 5 DFS don’ts list (Courtesy of; Zimbio).

I’m so close to being out on Eric Ebron indefinitely. Watching him play is incredibly frustrating. He’s consistently inconsistent and Matt Stafford has taken notice. After dropping multiple passes against Atlanta in week 3, Ebron has clearly fallen out of favor.

Detroit’s coaching staff has taken notice as well. Ebron was only on the field for 31 snaps Sunday against the Vikings compared to 45 the week before. His understudy, Darren Fells, was on the field for a staggering 51 snaps against the Vikings. He also had a season-high five targets, which was one more target than Ebron.

Eric Ebron is incredibly talented, but his time is up. If he’s healthy, which has been a big if in his career, he’s anything but consistent. Unless his price falls drastically, and he has a great matchup, I will not be touching Eric Ebron for the foreseeable future.

 

Featured Image Courtesy of USA Today

You can “Like” The Game Haus on Facebook and “Follow” us on Twitter for more sports and Esports articles written by other great TGH writers along with Braxton!

Like what you read? Tune into the Suck My DFS Podcast this Friday and find out who TGH fantasy experts will be playing in their DFS lineups this week. You can find the link on our Podcast page.

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