Award

MLB award predictions

2017 has been an exciting year in the world of baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers may have one of the best teams of all time, while Aaron Judge is putting together an incredible rookie campaign in New York.

We are now reaching the point in the season where award contenders have separated themselves from the rest of the field. There is now a good idea for what names are going to make that final push for some of the most prestigious accolades in the game.

American League MVP: Jose Altuve

Awards

Altuve is the star of a loaded Houston lineup (MLB.com)

Jose Altuve is proving to be one of the most productive hitters in the major leagues. He also highlights a stellar lineup that consists of Carlos Correa and George Springer as well.

Despite his stature, Altuve has been able to belt 16 home runs this season. Those aren’t Aaron Judge numbers, but it is especially impressive considering he is leading the league in hitting with a .364/.424/.570 slash line. On top of that, he has the best WAR in the MLB with a 6.3.

With how Aaron Judge has been performing, it is hard to see him now win the MVP. However, he has been showing signs of his humanity since the start of July. Sine the All-Star break, he has only hit 5 home runs and has a batting average floating around the Mendoza line. Judge also does not have a multi-hit game since July 18th.

If Judge had kept up the rate he was going at then there would be no doubt he would be the favorite for MVP. Jose Altuve has just been more consistent and is overall a more valuable player to the team. He is stable and can do everything.

Honorable Mentions: Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, George Springer

National League MVP: Paul Goldschmidt

Awards

Goldschmidt is leading the Diamondbacks to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 (MLB.com)

This one is a real toss up. Harper, Goldschmidt, Votto and Arenado all have very similar stats, and they aren’t even all of the guys that deserve to be in the discussion. It was hard not to pick Harper or Arenado for this especially just because of how spectacular their seasons have been. The last 6 weeks of the season should help the voters come to a decision for who truly deserves it. Either way, you can’t go wrong on this one.

The reason Paul Goldschmidt was the decision in this case is that he adds the most value to his team. Now, there Bryce Harper shouldn’t take a hit because he has a stellar team around him. However, the Diamondbacks would be worse off without Goldy than the Nationals would without Harper. That is why he is the most valuable player in the National League.

Goldschmidt leads the National League with a 5.5 WAR as of August 8th. He also is second in OBP, second in RBIs, and fifth in batting average. Goldschmidt also has a great eye as he has racked up 75 walks which is tied for second in the league. Either way though, this award can go to several different people.

Honorable Mentions: Bryce Harper, Joey Votto, Nolan Arenado

American League Cy Young: Chris Sale

Unlike the NL MVP, this award should be a lock. Chris Sale has been so dominant this year as he is vying for the pitching triple crown in the American League.

The trade that Boston made with the White Sox where they gave up Yoan Mocada for Chris Sale seems to be panning out so far. Ultimately it may be a big win for both teams. Sale has had a striking presence on the mound, and the Red Sox feel good about winning every game he starts as they have only lost six games when he starts.

The only blemish that Sale has on his resume this season is from earlier in August against the Cleveland Indians. The game turned out to be a real thriller but Sale gave up seven runs in five innings. This shot up his ERA from a 2.37 to a 2.70. He should get the ERA back down so he can solidify his spot with the best ERA in baseball.

Honorable Mentions: Marcus Stroman, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber

National League Cy Young: Max Scherzer

Awards

Scherzer has taken over as the best pitcher in the National League (Sporting News)

Max Scherzer has begun to separate himself from Kershaw as the favorite for Cy Young. Scherzer leads the National League in strikeouts and is second behind Kershaw. The Dodgers ace however has been on the DL since July 23rd and may be out until mid-September.

The Dodgers have no reason to rush Kershaw back before the postseason other than to get him to settle in. That alone may give Scherzer the advantage over Kershaw in the final voting. Even before Kershaw went on the disabled list, many thought that Scherzer was overtaking him for pitching dominance in the NL.

Both of these pitchers are going to be key in the postseason. It would be very interesting to see if they match up in the NLCS how that would play out. However, the voting takes place right after the regular season. Because of that, Scherzer should have the award locked up at that point.

Honorable Mentions: Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, Gio Gonzalez

American League Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge

This is a no-brainer. Aaron Judge may be having the most dominant rookie season since Albert Pujols and Ichiro came onto the scene in 2001. One could argue that it has been even better than Trout’s rookie year, where he led the AL in stolen bases and runs despite being called up in late-April.

Aaron Judge leads the American League in home runs with 35 and also has the third best WAR with a 5.3. That is ranked against everyone in the AL and not just rookies. Judge’s year has been overshadowing Trey Mancini’s rookie season, where he has 18 home runs and a .297 batting average. In most other seasons that may be enough to win rookie of the year. However, his name has hardly even come up on account of the Judge being in session.

Judge has led a Yankees lineup that is vying for supremacy in the AL East. The Astros didn’t make any notable moves at the trade deadline and seem to be limping a bit. It will be interesting to see if the Yankees close in on Houston at all. If Judge is able to help the Yankees do that, then he may even have a shot at MVP. However, Judge has been slumping since the All-Star break. He will need to turn it around soon if he wants a shot to beat out Jose Altuve for MVP.

Honorable Mentions: Trey Mancini, Andrew Benintendi

National League Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger

Awards

Bellinger has racked up 32 home runs which is second in the NL (Sporting News)

Cody Bellinger has been a huge surprise for the Dodgers this season. Corey Seager was highlighting the Dodgers young core but Bellinger is giving him a run for his money as the star of the team. Despite the fact that Bellinger was called up in late-April, he second in the NL in home runs with 32. While his average is at a pedestrian .264, Bellinger provides a fearful pop in the middle of the lineup.

Paul DeJong has also been a nice surprise for St. Louis. He has 16 home runs and a .283 batting average despite only playing in 59 games this season. He provides the best pop in the lineup for the Cardinals who are still looking for that key middle of the order guy, as he is now typically batting in the three spot.

There really is not much competition for Bellinger this season however. He has pretty much locked up the Rookie of the Year award much like Judge in the AL. What would be fascinating is if Judge and Bellinger were competing for the same award, who would deserve it more. Luckily, the writers do not have to make that tough decision though. Thus, both of them should receive the prestigious award.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Bell, Paul DeJong, Kyle Freeland

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2017 MLB breakout performers

The following MLB hitters have officially broken out in 2017. This piece intends to inform fantasy baseball owners about whether these breakout performers will continue to achieve, or if their level of success is unsustainable.

Honorable mentions include: Whit Merrifield (KAN), Domingo Santana (MIL), Yonder Alonso (OAK), Alex Bregman (HOU), Paul DeJong (STL) and Andrelton Simmons (LAA).

Aaron Judge, Outfielder, New York Yankees

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .300/.426/.627 .389 34 75 83 30.7 %
July .230/.364/.483 .310 7 13 13 36.4 %
2017 MLB breakout performers

Judge has become the best power hitter in baseball in 2017. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

The Yankee slugger has officially broken out in 2017. Judge is the heavy front runner to win American League Rookie of the Year, as he has mashed 34 home runs and 75 RBIs while batting .300 so far this season.

According to the New York Daily News, Major League Baseball’s commissioner Rob Manfred described Judge’s performance as “phenomenal”, and added that Judge is “the kind of player that can become the face of the game.”

While this comment may be justified, Judge’s performance has significantly cooled off since it was made in mid-June.

In July, Judge batted merely .230 while striking out at an atrocious 36.4 percent clip. Also, his 39 strikeouts were the most by any player in July.

On June 17, his BABIP was .433, although inevitably it has dropped .44 points to .389 in less than two months. I documented my opinion in mid-June, exclaiming that it was time to sell Judge, as his value was clearly at its peak.

Selling Judge now may not be the best decision, as his value has declined in the last month. His fantasy value should be similar to that of fellow sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Marcel Ozuna. His value would be closer to that of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout if it wasn’t for his lack of experience and elevated BABIP and strikeout rates, which all raise questions about his consistency.

Cody Bellinger, Outfielder/ First Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .264/.344/.599 .284 30 71 58 26.9 %
July .263/.372/.463 .298 4 13 9 20.2 %

Bellinger has been quite the producer since being called up in late April. In only 89 games, he has recorded 30 home runs and 71 RBIs, which puts him on pace to hit over 50 home runs and 129 RBIs over the course of a 162-game season.

The 22-year-old has noticeably changed his approach at the plate since the All-Star break, as his strikeout rate has dropped from 29.1 percent in the first half to 18.8 percent in the second. Bellinger slots into to the clean-up spot in the lineup behind the National League leader in batting average, Justin Turner, and 2016 NL Rookie of the Year, Corey Seager.

Bellinger has joined the ranks of elite young sluggers and should be valued similarly to Aaron Judge moving forward.

Justin Smoak, First Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .301/.380/.597 .313 31 74 64 19.7 %
July .310/.410/.610 .354 8 19 17 23.1 %

Despite the Blue Jays’ struggles this season, Justin Smoak has emerged as a silver lining. He was voted an All-Star for the first time and is currently batting .301 with 31 home runs and 74 RBIs.

The 30-year-old has set career highs in all major hitting categories, while also dropping his strikeout rate from 32.8 last season to 19.7 percent in 2017.

In July, Smoak’s success continued, although it seems majorly due to his BABIP as he sported a .354 BABIP. Also, his strikeout rate has risen up to 23.1 percent which is a bit concerning.

Smoak should finish the year batting under .300, although chances that he hits 40 bombs and drives in 100 are very likely. He is firmly entrenched within the top 10 first baseman right now, although his value in keeper and dynasty formats is weaker than in standard re-draft due to lack of sample size and consistency.

Travis Shaw, First Baseman/ Third Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .288/.361/.555 .329 24 74 61 23.1 %
July .305/.400/.622 .367 7 17 19 27.4 %
2017 MLB breakout performers

Travis Shaw was a first time All-Star in 2017. (Photo by Pintrest)

Shaw came over to the Brewers this offseason in a deal that sent reliever Tyler Thornburg to the Boston Red Sox. Thornburg has yet to pitch an inning for the Red Sox, whereas Shaw has become an All-Star.

The 27-year-old has found a home batting clean-up for Milwaukee, as he has hit a career-high 24 home runs while driving in a career-high 74 RBIs.

Shaw’s BABIP of .329 is significantly higher than last season’s .299 mark, although this may be due to an increase in hard contact, as he has raised his hard contact rate from 29 percent in 2015, to 33 percent in 2016 and now 37 percent this season.

His improved approach has allowed him to become an elite fantasy producer in 2017. His value moving forward is similar to the likes of Jake Lamb and Mike Moustakas, as his batting average is still extremely BABIP driven and his strikeout rates are high and continuously rising.

Chris Taylor, Outfielder/ Second Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .316/.383/.545 .419 14 52 60 27.7 %
July .394/.412/.660 .523 3 15 15 26.8 %

Taylor was a fifth-round pick by the Seattle Mariners in 2012. He was acquired by the Dodgers in a trade that sent prospect pitcher Zach Lee to Seattle in 2016.

Since arriving in Los Angeles, Taylor has stumbled upon some newfound success, as he has hit more home runs in 91 games this season than he did in 249 games at the AAA-level.

The 26-year-old has become the everyday lead-off hitter for the Dodgers, which bodes well for his fantasy value, although his rising strikeout rate and inflated BABIP are cause for concern.

Taylor, whose BABIP in July measured .523, has an unsustainable BABIP of .419 on the year. Also, his home run to fly ball rate of 18.7 percent is unsustainable, as that would put him the same conversation as Paul Goldschmidt and Logan Morrison in terms of HR/FB rates.

Taylor’s fantasy value seems to be at its peak, which makes this a prime time to sell high. He will continue to be a valuable asset as he bats lead-off for arguably the best team in baseball, although his BABIP and home run to fly ball rate are sure to plummet.

Michael Conforto, Outfielder, New York Mets

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .296/.399/.566 .355 21 56 62 25.0 %
July .301/.363/.658 .313 7 14 12 22.5 %

Conforto has been the lone bright spot for the Mets during thier abysmal 2017 season. He has batted primarily in the lead-off spot for New York, although due to a lack of talent around him, he has only scored 62 runs in his 91 games. His BABIP of .355 is very high, although his BABIP in July of .313 and batting average of .301 suggest that his .300 batting average may be sustainable over the course of a full season.

The 24-year-old is not in the upper echelon of outfielders just yet. It is fair to value him similarly to Corey Dickerson or Domingo Santana moving forward due to his lineup potential, production, upside and age.

Jonathan Schoop, Second Baseman, Baltimore Orioles

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .302/.352/.550 .337 24 79 68 21.5 %
July .343/.377/.638 .355 9 28 21 19.3 %
2017 MLB breakout performers

Jonathan Schoop has emerged as a center piece of the Orioles future. (Photo by Alchetron)

Schoop had a successful 2016 campaign, although he has taken his talents to the next level this season. He is a lock to set career bests in all major hitting categories, as he is on pace to hit 36 home runs and drive in 119 RBIs.

He has found a fantasy friendly spot in the three-hole of a dangerous Baltimore lineup and promises to be a big part of their future moving forward.

His BABIP of .337 suggests that his batting average is in line for a small amount of regression, although his improved strikeout rate and incredible July totals insinuate that he is trending upward.

He ranks just below Jose Ramirez in terms of value due to a lack of steals and batting average, although his production puts him firmly in the top tier of second basemen, well behind Jose Altuve of course.

 

Marwin Gonzalez, First Baseman/ Third Baseman/ Shortstop/ Outfielder, Houston Astros

BA/OBP/SLG BABIP HR RBI R K%
2017 Season .311/.388/.578 .346 20 65 50 20.5 %
July .307/.378/.591 .344 7 18 17 21.4 %

Marwin Gonzalez, once known as a backup utility player, has officially broken out. Many didn’t expect Gonzalez to receive everyday at-bats due to the Astros having such a deep roster, although due to injuries and his hot bat he has found himself in an everyday role.

The 28-year-old has set career highs in home runs and RBIs, while being on pace to set a career-high in batting average. Gonzalez is a great fantasy asset, as he has a multitude of position eligibilities and bats in the heart of the Astros’ dangerous lineup.

His BABIP is high, which does cause concern regarding his .300-plus average, although his production and power seem to be sustainable. His playing time shouldn’t falter even when stars Carlos Correa and George Springer return from the disabled list, as his production has been arguably the team’s best of late.

 

Featured image by SBNation

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Postseason

National League playoff predictions

The National League has been interesting so far this year. In the Central, there’s a jam-packed division with teams floating around the .500 mark. In the West, the Dodgers have a strong grip on first place but the Rockies and Diamondbacks are also having great years. The East however is pretty much a lock with the Nationals having little competition getting in their way.

Here is a look at who will most likely be making an appearance in October.

Los Angeles Dodgers, National League West

National League playoff predictions

The Dodgers hope Kershaw’s injury will not keep him out for long (nydailynews)

The Dodgers currently have the best record in baseball and they have been tough to stop. They had a stretch of winning 30 of 34 games and are playing like they will be able to break their championship drought.

Los Angeles just took a major hit to their rotation. Clayton Kershaw left in the second inning of Sunday’s game with lower back issues. He landed on the 10-day DL and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.

Kershaw has kept up his typical excellence thus far, so the Dodgers will have a lot to overcome with this injury. They are sitting pretty with a 10.5-game lead on the Rockies, but with how the division is playing this is no time to coast.

It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers will be looking for starting pitching help within the next week with this new injury. If Kershaw misses significant time, they may look for some rotation help to shore things up.

The Dodgers’ pitching staff has the best ERA in the majors, however the Diamondbacks are right behind them in that category. Los Angeles should not take the injury lightly as it is important for them to maintain their strong lead in the West. Otherwise, the Rockies or Diamondbacks could make a run for them.

All around, the Dodgers are still the best team in the National League even without Clayton Kershaw. The young duo of Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger have been fantastic this year on top of the stellar season from Justin Turner. The Dodgers have also been in the mix for Orioles closer Zach Britton. If the Dodgers make a move for Britton, it will be nearly impossible to beat them if they have a lead in the seventh inning or later.

Chicago Cubs, National League Central

National League playoff predictions

Jose Quintana has won his first two starts for the Cubs (CBS Sports)

The Cubs have finally started to hit their stride. They are 8-1 since the All-Star break and have caught the Brewers in the Central.

The Brewers however are starting to regress like a lot of people predicted. They are 3-7 since the break with six of those games against the Philadelphia Phillies. Things aren’t getting easier as their next two series are against the Nationals and the Cubs.

Chicago has gotten a spark since the Jose Quintana trade. They gave up their best prospect in Eloy Jimenez, but may have received one of the key pieces they were looking for to fill out their roster.

One more thing they may look for at the deadline though is bullpen help. Wade Davis has been an excellent add this season for the Cubs, but they may need more help to fill out their relief pitching. The Cubs have been linked to Pat Neshak of the Phillies who is having a stellar year. He would make for a great combo of Neshak-Davis in the eighth and ninth.

The offense is also starting to play to its potential as of late. The combo of Bryant-Rizzo-Schwarber was supposed to be one of the most feared cores in the majors. Bryant and Rizzo are playing to expectations while Schwarber is slowly improving from his abysmal first half of the season.

The Cubs are starting to return to their 2016 form though, and if it keeps up then there will be no team in the Central that will be able to keep up with them.

Washington Nationals, National League East

National League playoff predictions

Harper has had an MVP caliber year (Sports Illustrated)

The Nationals may be the surest bet for the postseason at this point. They are not the best team in the league by any means, but they do not have any competition in their division that will come close to threatening them for the title in the East.

As with most teams in the league, the bullpen has the biggest question mark on the team. The Nationals do have some prospects they can deal in order to shore things up, because it will be vital for them to have a more reliable bullpen in the postseason.

Their bullpen currently ranks as the worst in all of baseball, and that simply will not suffice if the Nationals want to compete in the playoffs.

Although they have the worst ranked bullpen, they have the top ranked offense in the National League. Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy have been a deadly combo this year that will throw any pitcher fits. Each one of them could be in the conversation for MVP, but the Dodgers have some serious contenders themselves.

Either way, the offense has been a big reason for their success along with their ace, Max Scherzer. It has been discussed that Scherzer may actually be the best starting pitcher in the league today.

Arizona Diamondacks, National League Wild Card #1

National League playoff predictions

J.D Martinez makes the Diamondbacks lineup much stronger (arizonasports)

The Diamondbacks showed the league that they are serious this year with their acquisition of J.D. Martinez. Martinez makes the Diamondbacks’ lineup strong enough to perhaps be able to compete with the best offenses in the league. The Goldscmidt-Martinez combo along with the other Arizona hitters who are having great years would be tough to stop in a playoff series.

Robbie Ray is having a career year and Zack Greinke has returned to his Cy Young form. It seemed that Greinke may have lost his edge when he went to Arizona. However, he is proving that 2016 was a fluke and he is still an elite pitcher.

The pitching staff has overall been a real plus this year as only the Dodgers have been more successful. With the injury to Kershaw, the Diamondbacks may have a better opportunity to catch up to them.

The Diamondbacks have only won three of their past 10 games. This most likely will not last though. Every team has ups and downs during a season, and Arizona is just in the middle of it right now. Although they probably won’t be able to catch the Dodgers, they have a good enough team to take a wild card spot. In any other division in the NL they would have a much better shot at a title, they just happen to be in the best one in the majors right now.

Colorado Rockies, National League Wild Card #2

National League playoff predictions

Blackmon is having a career year in Colorado (The Denver Post)

The third team that has a good shot of making the playoffs from the National League West is the Rockies are having a breakout year. Colorado has some good young pitching but much of their success comes from their offense. Nolan Arrenado is proving to be an elite third baseman and Charlie Blackmon is having a career year.

Colorado is tied with Washington for the second best offense in the majors. What is interesting about this stat is that one would think that this is because they are hitting a lot of home runs since they are in Colorado. However, the Rockies actually rank 16th in home runs in the majors. They are getting guys in all sorts of different ways.

The Rockies will have a tough time holding their lead in the wild card over the Diamondbacks. Since Arizona has such a stronger pitching staff, it is most likely that they will overrun them.

They are looking for players to bolster their rotation, the only problem is that they are in Colorado. Yu Darvish has already stated that he does not want to be traded to the Rockies. The reason why the Rockies have a such hard time getting good pitching is because of their ballpark. However, Colorado needs a stronger rotation in order to compete in the postseason and stay ahead in the National League.

 

 

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Big Three

Which Team has the Big 3 of Baseball?

With all the talk in the NBA about big threes and super teams, I got to wondering if there are any teams like that in baseball. Now, it is a bit different in the MLB as you don’t have as many superstars moving teams to create these unstoppable forces.

Baseball is also much more of a team game. One or two players in the NBA can carry a team far into the playoffs. In baseball, the entire team needs to be carrying their weight because each player doesn’t have the same opportunity to make a big play throughout the game.

On that note, let’s take a look and see who might have the best “big three” in their lineup in the 2017 season. This is referring to what three players contribute the most to their team as a collective.

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa

Combined WAR: 12.1

Altuve: .347/.417/.551 13 HR 50 RBI | Springer: .310/.380/.613 27 HR 65 RBI | Correa: .325/.402/.577 20 HR 65 RBI

Baseball super teams

Correa might be the best shortstop since Jeter (Bleacher Report)

The Houston Astros are proving to be one of the greatest teams in recent memory largely thanks to the work of the core hitters in their lineup. It seems though that their years with high draft picks are finally starting to pay off.

Houston has the best record in the American League and second-best in the majors behind the Dodgers, and they’re putting in a bid to win their first world series in franchise history.

All three of these young hitters are All-Stars in 2017 and it is well deserved. Correa may be the front-runner for MVP over Trout, seeing that Trout has been on the DL for the past few weeks. Not to mention, Correa is only 22 years old.

It is also hard to recall a middle infield combination that has been so threatening in recent years. The first one that comes to mind is Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano for the Yankees. Seeing how young Altuve and Correa are now, they may end up being more effective of a duo than Jeter and Cano ever were.

Springer is also really starting to come into his own now. Everyone always knew that he had some serious punch in his bat. At the All-Star break, he is already two home runs away from his single-season record. On top of that, he is hitting the ball much more effectively as his slugging percentage is at an all-time high.

Seeing as none of of these three players are going to be unrestricted free agents for another two full seasons, this powerhouse doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Even though the best player in baseball is in the same division, it seems that the Astros will be running the division for the coming years largely because of this hitting core.

Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Combined WAR: 8.4

Harper: .325/.431/.590 20 HR 65 RBI | Zimmerman: .330/.373/.596 19 HR 63 RBI | Murphy: .342/.393/.572 14 HR 64 RBI

Baseball super teams

Harper has continued to live up to his high expectations (Sports Illustrated)

Despite the fact that these three hitters are leading the National League in batting average, I had to think about who belonged in this big three. Anthony Rendon had a pretty good bid into this but it was just too difficult to leave the other three out.

Zimmerman has reignited his career and may be having his best year. He has only batted over .300 in his career once but now he is competing with his teammates for the best in the NL.

Harper has continued his rise to super-stardom and nobody seems to be getting in his way. After a somewhat slow 2016 he has reached new levels in 2017. He is currently on pace to break 100 RBIs for the first time in his career and could also reach 40 home runs for the second time.

Thanks to his teammates also hitting the long ball, it is not as easy to pitch around Harper either. Because of Murphy’s success with the Nationals thus far, it is giving Harper more opportunities do excel.

Daniel Murphy has far exceeded the expectations of the Nationals in his first two years with the club. He has become a power threat which he had never been before. We all know how valuable power-hitting second basemen are too. Murphy is also running for the hitting title for the second year in a row. The bottom line is that there is no break from this Nationals lineup. Every batter will be a battle, but these three especially will drive any pitcher nuts.

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto, Zach Cozart, Adam Duvall

Combined WAR: 8.8

Votto: .315/.427/.631 26 HR 68 RBI | Cozart: .316/.394/.547 9 HR 35 RBI | Duvall: .278/.321/.557 20 HR 61 RBI

Baseball super teams

Votto, Duvall,and Cozart have continued to be the only bright spot for the Reds (USA Today)

The Reds have not been great this year. As I mentioned in the introduction, three players cannot carry a team to greatness. The Reds are a perfect example of that.

Votto and Cozart are both All-Stars this year and along with Duvall they have been a bright spot for Cincinnati. However, their abysmal pitching keeps them in last place in perhaps the worst division in baseball. We are not here to talk about poor pitching however.

Votto has continued a spectacular career despite him being on one of the worst teams in baseball in the past few years. He leads a club that currently ranks in the top 10 in hitting in the majors.

What makes Votto so difficult to pitch against is his smarts at the plate. He is not easy to fool, as he currently has 62 walks on the season compared to 42 strikeouts. With players that hit home runs as much as he does, it is more typical to have a higher rate of strikeouts. That is something that you can see with Votto’s teammate, Duvall.

Adam Duvall broke out as a serious power threat last season. However, he is striking out in 25 percent of his at bats and only walking in five percent of them. In order for him to be an even bigger threat, he is going to take after Votto. He has improved as an overall hitter though as he is on pace to have the highest average and OPS of his career.

Cozart may be a valuable trade piece at the deadline. He has still been hitting on all cylinders despite his injury issues. He provides good pop at the top of the lineup and is a good setup man for whoever follows him. Knowing the Reds’ need for young pitching, they may deal him because of his current value. Because of this, the Cincinnati big three may not be in tact much longer.

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorious

Combined WAR: 9.3

Judge: .329/.448/.691 30 HR 66 RBI | Sanchez: .276/.360/.491 13 HR 40 RBI | Gregorius: .291/.346.458 10 HR 38 RBI

Baseball super teams

Judge has already passed Dimaggio for most home runs by a Yankees rookie (Sporting News)

Aaron Judge has come onto the scene and is already one of the best hitters in baseball. He largely carries this big three due to his ability to hit the ball out of the park as well as hit for average.

There is no getting around him and his surrounding hitters have made is especially difficult. While the Yankees are fairly banged up at the moment, his supporting cast has been coming through.

Gregorious is not typically known for his bat but rather his glove. He came onto the scene at the plate last season with 20 home runs. This year, he is picking back up where he left off and is nearly a .300 hitter. While he is just an above average hitter on the moment, he is proving to be a key part of the lineup.

Gary Sanchez is proving to be one of the better power-hitting catchers in the league. Despite only playing in 57 games at the midway point in the season, he has 13 home runs. He and Judge are bringing back the Bronx Bombers, and they will be hard to stop for the coming years.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner

Combined WAR: 10.0

Seager: .298/.395/.502 13 HR 45 RBI | Bellinger: .261/.342/.619 25 HR 58 RBI | Turner: .377/.473/.583 10 HR 37 RBI

Baseball super teams

Bellinger is the latest Dodgers rookie to make a splash in the bigs (Sports Illustrated)

These three All-Stars have led the best team in baseball to a 61-win season at the break. They are the best team in the National League while being in perhaps the best division in baseball. Cody Bellinger is a big reason for that with his breakout season at the plate.

Justin Turner won the final vote to get into his first All-Star game. The only reason he probably didn’t get in originally was because of the time he has missed. Once he gets enough at-bats to be eligible for the batting title, he may run with it.

Corey Seager is showing that he deserved to be ranked as one of the best prospects in baseball. After his Rookie of the Year campaign last year, it looks like he wants to pass the torch along to his teammate. With Turner coming onto the scene in Los Angeles at the right time, these young players are showing how the Dodgers can win their first championship in almost 30 years.

The Final Rankings

  1. Houston Astros
  2. Washington Nationals
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers
  4. New York Yankees
  5. Cincinnati Reds

Honorable Mentions:

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado, Mark Renyolds, Charlie Blackmon: Each of these guys have some serious pop.

Tampa Bay Rays: Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison: Dickerson and Morrison are having big years while Longoria continues his stellar career.

Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber: If this was any other year, they might be at the top of the list.

 

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Biggest surprises of the 2017 MLB Season

Biggest Surprises of the 2017 MLB Season

This Major League Baseball season has brought many big surprises. One being that MLB hitters are on pace to hit about 500 more home runs this season than ever before. With this in mind, it’s time to look at five players who have been the biggest surprises of the 2017 MLB season.

Ryan Zimmerman, First Baseman, Washington Nationals

Biggest surprises 2017 MLB Season

Ryan Zimmerman is finally healthy and on pace for over 40 home runs in 2017. (Photo by Nick Wass/Associated Press)

At 32 years old, Zimmerman is having a career year. He is currently ranked within the top 10 in National League home runs, RBI and batting average.

Unfortunately, he has been riddled with injuries in the last three seasons, as he hasn’t played in 140 games since he was 28 years old in 2013. In 115 games in 2016, Zimmerman batted only .218 with 15 home runs.

Now finally 100 percent healthy, Zimmerman is batting .337 and is on pace to set a career-high with 40-plus home runs. He has been an integral piece to the Nationals league-best offense.

Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins

Santana was suspended for 80 games in 2015 after testing positive for PEDs. Post-suspension, he managed to have a solid 2016 campaign, as he mustered up a 7-11 record with a 3.38 ERA in 181 innings.

Due to Minnesota’s newfound success in 2017, Santana has a 10-5 record and sports an impressive 3.07 ERA. The analytics would suggest he is getting fairly lucky, as his FIP is 4.71 and xFIP is 4.86, although as they say, “it’s better to be lucky than good”, and in this case, Santana has been both.

Aaron Judge, Outfielder, New York Yankees

Biggest surprises 2017 MLB Season

Judge has become the best power hitter in baseball in 2017. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge’s first major league stint came in August of 2016. He struggled mightily in his first 27 games, batting a mere .179 and striking out 44 percent of the time. Many questions arose to whether Judge’s raw power would translate to the major league level.

He has since proved all doubters wrong, as he is batting .326 with a league-leading 27 home runs and 62 RBIs. He has set the Statcast record for hardest hit home run at 121.1 mph, while also having the farthest home run recorded in 2017 at 495 feet and highest average exit velocity at 96.9 mph. The 25-year-old has officially emerged as an elite ballplayer and will continue to impress for years to come.

Jason Vargas, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals

Vargas tore his UCL in 2015 which caused him to miss almost the entire 2016 season. After over a full calendar year of recovery, Vargas is back and playing better than ever.

He currently has a league-best 12 wins with a 2.22 ERA. The 34-year-old is in line to make his first All-Star team in his 12-year career.

Cody Bellinger, First Basemen/Outfield, Los Angeles Dodgers

Biggest surprises 2017 MLB Season

Cody Bellinger has been the most pleasant surprise of 2017. (Photo by Dodgers Photo Blog)

Bellinger had been tearing the cover off of the ball in the minors, hitting a combined 56 home runs and 174 RBIs in 245 games at three different levels. He was called up in late April after the Dodgers placed outfielders Joc Pederson and Franklin Gutierrez on the disabled list.

With a slew of outfielders including Yasiel Puig, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke, Kike Hernandez, Brett Eibner and Trayce Thompson along with the aforementioned Pederson and Gutierrez, Bellinger wasn’t expected to stick with the club, but rather be a short-term replacement.

The 21-year-old had different plans, as he took his opportunity and ran with it. Bellinger is currently batting .267 with an NL-high 24 home runs and 56 RBIs. The young phenomenon has been arguably the biggest surprise of 2017, as he has made a severe impact on a first-place Dodgers team that didn’t expect to see him until September call-ups.

 

Featured image by MLB.com

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Judge

Is it time to sell high on Aaron Judge?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has officially broken out. The 6-foot-7, 285-pounder is arguably the best power hitter in baseball.

He is continuously setting MLB Statcast records, most recently hitting a home run that recorded an exit velocity of 121.1 MPH, which broke his former record for hardest hit home run that measured 119.8 MPH. Judge holds nine of the top 15 hardest hit balls recorded in 2017.

Sell high Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge suffered severe struggles in 2016. (Photo by The New York Post)

His first MLB action came in August of 2016, where the slugger struggled mightily. In 27 games, he batted just .179 with only four home runs. The most alarming observation from his first stint in the majors was his atrocious 44.2 percent strikeout rate.

Clearly, after an offseason of adjustments, Judge has significantly improved his approach at the plate. His strikeout rate has dropped to a serviceable 29 percent, which is still considered “awful” according to fangraphs.com, although it is still lower than many current premier power hitters, including Khris Davis (31.5 percent), Cody Bellinger (32 percent), Miguel Sano (36 percent) and Chris Davis (38 percent).

Judge currently leads the entire MLB in home runs with 22, while ranking second in the American League in both batting average at .335 and RBIs with 49. He is dangerously close to being in position to win the AL Triple Crown, which is an accomplishment that has only been done 17 times, most recently by future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera in 2012 (.330/44/139).

Currently on pace for about 58 home runs and 130 RBI, it is time to question whether Judge’s success is sustainable.

His current BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, of .433 suggests that he is getting incredibly lucky. BABIP measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball in play is considered any outcome other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt or home run.

According to fangraphs.com, a BABIP of .350 over a sample size of 4,000 plate appearances would be considered a mark that only the best hitters in the league will reach. An example of a player who falls into this category is Joey Votto, who over the course 5,719 plate appearances has a career BABIP of .354.

The highest BABIP registered in a complete season since 1945 was by Hall of Famer Rod Carew in 1977, in which he finished the year with a .408 BABIP and .388 batting average. In the 2000’s, only one player managed to finish a season with a BABIP over .400, which was Manny Ramirez in 2000 (.403).

This shows that Judge’s BABIP is sure to plummet from its current .425 mark, as not even the greatest hitters of all time would be able to sustain a BABIP this high.

Sell high Aaron Judge

Judge has become the best power hitter in baseball in 2017. (Photo by The New York Daily News)

Judge’s home run to fly ball rate is at 41.5 percent. To put that in perspective, when Judge has been hitting a fly ball, there has been over a 40 percent chance of it leaving the yard.

According to fangraphs.com, “good home run hitters typically have HR/FB ratios anywhere from 15-20 percent”.

Unfortunately, this analytic was not created until 2002, so we cannot compare Judge’s current HR/FB rate to Barry Bonds’ 2001 marks, although we can look at other more contemporary players instead.

Chris Davis hit 53 home runs in 2013 with a 29.6 percent HR/FB rate, Chris Carter hit 41 home runs in 2016 with a 23.8 percent HR/FB rate and Miguel Cabrera hit 44 home runs in consecutive seasons in 2012 and 2013 with 23 and 25 percent HR/FB rates respectively. It is clear that Judge’s HR/FB rate will drop significantly, but by how much we cannot be sure.

I think we can all agree Judge is the real deal, although for fantasy purposes, this seems like the optimal time to sell high on the superstar. His value could not be any higher and is sure to drop as his BABIP and HR/FB inevitably will fall.

Trading Judge now could result in the addition of a bonifide ace, like Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, or Max Scherzer, opposed to in a month were his value may only be able to garner a Chris Archer, Yu Darvish, or Carlos Martinez.

To all my fellow fantasy baseball owners, good luck to your teams moving forward.

 

Featured Image by Sports Illustrated

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Fantasy Baseball 2017

Fantasy Baseball 2017: Minor League Update

The most interesting fantasy baseball formats are keeper and dynasty leagues, as they allow owners to carry a number of players over into the next season, which adds an entire new aspect to fantasy. Keeper and dynasty formats are much more engrossing for the owner.

As weird as this may sound, bonds are created between an owner and their players that are carried from roster to roster over the years.

Also, these formats increase the value of prospects, as an owner may decide to stash a minor-league player in hopes that they receive a call-up to the majors later in the year.

In 2016, players like Trea Turner, Tyler Naquin and Edwin Diaz all began the season in the minor-leagues, but managed to make a serious impact at the big-league level. In Trea Turner’s case, after playing in only 73 games and recording 13 home runs, 33 steals, with a .342 batting average, he became a top 20 overall pick for the following year.

Drafting or adding impact prospects can be the difference between having a good or great team moving forward from season to season

 

This update intends to inform owners about ten minor-league prospects in line to make a lasting impact on Major League Baseball in the near future. Adjacent to the player’s name will be their major-league team, position, and prospect ranking according to MLB.com.

 

Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox, Second base/Third base, (1)

Fantasy Baseball 2017

Yoan Moncada is the top prospect in baseball according to MLB.com (Courtesy of MLB.com)

  • Position battles: Todd Frazier and Tyler Saladino
  • MLB ETA: 2017

 

Moncada is the number one prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. He is currently batting .292 with three home runs and two stolen bases in eight games at the AAA level. The 21-year-old Cuban has shown the potential to be a transcendent player, as he amassed 15 home runs and 45 steals in only 106 minor-league games in 2016. Moncada will presumably be called-up some time soon after May 15th in order to keep his service time down.  He will be a highly sought after commodity once called up, so pick him up before it’s too late.

 

Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees, Second base/Short stop/Third base, (2)

 

  • Position battles: Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro and Ronald Torreyes
  • MLB ETA: 2018

 

Some people believed Torres would begin the season in the big-leagues, as the Yankees starting short stop, Didi Gregorius, was on the disabled list to start the year; although, Torreyes and Castro were awarded the starting jobs.

Torres was sent down to the AA-level, where he is batting a mere .237 with zero home runs and only three extra base hits in ten games. Torres was recently placed on the 7-day DL as he is suffering from right rotator cuff tendinitis, which was probably the cause of the 20-year-old’s early struggles in 2017. A call-up for Torres won’t likely come until 2018, as he will not see a promotion until he performs at the minor-league level, learns to field at all three positions, and finds an opening in the Yankees lineup.

 

Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates, Outfield, (7)

Fantasy Baseball 2017

Austin Meadows is struggling in 2017, although management is not worried. (Courtesy of Rotoprofessor)

  • Position battles: Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, and Adam Frazier
  • MLB ETA: 2018

 

The top 10 prospect according to MLB.com has gotten off to an ice-cold start in 2017. He is currently batting .156 in 12 games at the AAA-level.

Many expected Meadows to take over in center field for the recently suspended Starling Marte, although Pirates GM states that “He’s not ready right now, but we’re thrilled by where he can go.” This shows the 2017 may not be the year for Meadows, although they are confident that the career .295 hitter will turn things around quickly.

 

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers, First base/Outfield, (10)

 

  • Position battles: Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Van Slyke, and Andrew Toles
  • MLB ETA: 2017

 

The number one prospect in the Dodgers system is continuing to impress. Bellinger is batting .360 with five home runs and 14 RBI in 13 games at the AAA-level. He has mashed a total of 65 home runs and 252 RBI in 356 games.

The 21-year-old is able to play first base, as well as all three outfield positions, which heavily increases his value. If Bellinger continues at this torrid pace, or if an injury were to occur to Gonzalez, Bellinger could see a call up to big leagues this season.

 

Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox, Third base, (15)

Fantasy Baseball 2017

Rafael Devers is on fire, but a call-up may not come any time soon. (Courtesy of Masslive.com)

  • Position battles: Pablo Sandoval, Marco Hernandez, and Brock Holt
  • MLB ETA: 2019

 

Devers is on fire to start 2017, slashing .375/.390/.550 at the AA-level. The third baseman has continuously found success at all minor-league levels, batting a career .295 with 204 RBI over 323 games. The 20-year-old has a career high of 11 home runs in a season, but this is sure to improve as he grows into his body and increases his strength.

The Red Sox won’t be looking to rush Devers to the big leagues, as they seem content with Sandoval manning the hot corner for the near future. If a slew of injuries were to occur, which is very possible, Devers could find his way to the majors late in the year.

 

Lewis Brinson, Milwaukee Brewers, Outfielder, (16)

 

  • Position battles: Keon Broxton, Domingo Santana, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis
  • MLB ETA: 2017

 

Brinson is off to a red hot start at the AAA level, slashing .355/.412/.645 in 34 plate appearances in 2017. He is clearly ready for the Major-League level as he has a career batting average of .281, with 81 home runs and 91 steals through six minor-league seasons. The only caveat to the 22-year-old’s game is his poor strikeout rate, as he strikes out over 20% of the time. Brinson is a serious 20/20 threat, although he likely won’t see a call up this season unless there is an injury to a Brewer’s outfielder.

 

Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians, Outfielder, (20)

Fantasy Baseball 2017

Bradley Zimmer has a packed road ahead, as the Indians have committed to Austin Jackson and Brandon Guyer in 2017. (Courtesy of Wahoo’s on First)

  • Position battles: Austin Jackson, Brandon Guyer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Abraham Almonte, and Tyler Naquin
  • MLB ETA: 2018

 

The top-20 prospect in baseball has a very crowded road ahead. The Indians have decided to run a platoon in center and right field this season, which presumably was going to give Zimmer or Naquin every day at bats at the major-league level, although this was not the case. Both Zimmer and Naquin have been assigned to the minors, while veterans Jackson and Guyer have earned playing time with the Indians.

Zimmer is a five-tool prospect with plenty of promise. In 2015, he batted .273 with 16 home runs and 44 stolen bases in 127 games. The 24-year-old followed by having a season with a .250 batting average, 15 home runs, and 38 stolen bases in 130 games. Zimmer clearly has the talent and consistency to be an above average fantasy producer, although the call may not come until injuries deplete Cleveland’s outfield.

 

Brent Honeywell, Tampa Bay Rays, Starting Pitcher, (28)

 

  • Position battles: Erasmo Ramirez, Matt Andriese, Blake Snell, and Jose De Leon
  • MLB ETA: 2017

 

Honeywell has a career 2.59 ERA and .992 WHIP over 298 1/3 innings in the minors. This outlandish line has continued in 2017, as he currently has a 2.08 ERA, .615 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched.

The 22-year-old was just called up to AAA, and should see a call to the majors very shortly after the Super Two cutoff, as the Rays currently have placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day DL. If another pitcher were to go down, Honeywell could very well get the call sooner than many expect.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays, Third base, (31)

Fantasy Baseball 2017

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be baseball’s most talented 18-year-old. (Courtesy of MLB.com)

  • Position Battles: Josh Donaldson and Darwin Barney
  • MLB ETA: 2019

 

The son of future Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, Guerrero Jr., is one of the most talented teenagers in professional baseball. The 18-year-old is batting .295 at the A-level with two home runs and six RBI in 13 games. Guerrero Jr. has shown incredible ability to get on base, on top of his already established power and speed.

The top 50 prospect managed to hit eight home runs to go along with 15 steals in 62 games of rookie ball, showing that he has the potential to be a 20/20 player moving forward. The Blue Jays have no rush to move the teen to the majors, even with their MVP third baseman injured. Although, Guerrero Jr. should be in the big-leagues sooner than later, just not in 2017.

 

Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers, Starting Pitcher, (35)

 

  • Position battles: Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, and Chase Anderson
  • MLB ETA: 2017

 

The lanky lefty remains one of the most electric starters in the minors, as he has a career strikeouts per nine innings of 10.2, which is well above average. The 23-year-old has a career 3.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 503 innings pitched. He is currently pitching for Milwaukee’s AAA affiliate, and has a 2-1 record with a 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched.

Hader has struggled with walks over his first three starts, although he has remained effective, allowing only four runs in three starts. If he continues to find success at the minor-league level, he is sure to get the call in 2017.

 

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