With the 2017 MLB season winding down, it is time to assess different player’s outlooks moving forward.
In this piece, Justin Bour’s 2017 campaign and 2018 outlook will be analyzed and discussed.
Bour’s professional baseball career began after being drafted in the 25th round of the 2009 MLB Draft by the Chicago Cubs. The first baseman spent three seasons between low, single and high-A from 2009 until 2011, hitting 39 home runs and driving in 212 RBIs in 322 games. Bour continued to find success in two seasons at the double-A level, hitting 35 home runs and driving in 174 RBIs in 221 games.
After failing to be placed on the Cubs 40-man roster, he was subsequently drafted in the 2013 rule-5 draft by the Miami Marlins. Bour then spent one season in triple-A, batting .306 with 18 home runs and 72 RBIs in 103 games. His first major league action came with the Marlins in 2014, where he appeared in only 39 games, batting .284 with a home run and 11 RBIs. In his first full season in Miami, Bour batted .262 with 23 home runs and 73 RBIs in 129 games.
In 2016, the Marlins signed corner infielder Chris Johnson to be the right-handed side of a platoon with Bour, which lessened expectations for the then 28-year-old Bour. In the first half of the season, Bour batted .268 with 15 home runs and 46 RBIs through 68 games. Unfortunately, Bour suffered a high-ankle sprain on July 2, forcing him to miss 57 games.
After returning, Bour logged 79 plate appearances, failing to hit one home run. A healthy Bour’s presence in the lineup was clearly missed, as his platoon mate and replacements Chris Johnson, Xavier Scruggs and Don Kelly failed to hit half as many home runs as Bour did in 2016.
In 2017, Bour assumed more of an everyday role, ceding the occasional at bat to righty Tyler Moore and switch hitter Tomas Telis. Bour’s season began modestly, hitting only four home runs while batting .222 in April. Once May came around, Bour began to explode, batting .344 while mashing 11 home runs and driving in 21 RBIs over the course of 28 games. He ended the first half of the year with a .289 batting average, 20 home runs and 59 RBIs, putting him on pace to hit 42 bombs and drive in 124 RBIs over the course of a complete 162-game season.
Bour participated in the 2017 Home Run Derby, hitting 22 home runs in his final round against New York Yankee Aaron Judge, who mashed 23. The electric performance began to propel Bour’s popularity.
Unfortunately, he strained his right oblique on July 24, resulting in him missing all of August and early September. He has been magnificent in his 13 games since returning, batting .362 with four home runs and 15 RBIs.
First base is one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball with 39 first base eligible players (on ESPN.com) with at least 20 home runs. Also, there are 10 first base eligible players ranked within the top-50 batters in standard ESPN fantasy leagues, making lower profile players like Bour fall by the way side in terms of average draft position and percentage owned.
The 29-year-old will head into 2018 as an integral piece of a dangerous Marlins lineup, spearheaded by Giancarlo Stanton, Marcel Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon. It is clear that Bour can be a serious threat to hit 40 home runs and drive in over 100 RBIs next season. I predict his 2018 campaign to mirror that of Justin Smoak, who has nearly identical isolated power, walk and strikeout rates as Bour.
It is safe to say Bour will be overlooked in 2018 due to so many bigger names, like Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Eric Hosmer, Jose Abreu and Cody Bellinger. However, if healthy, there is no reason Bour cannot join this tier of elite first basemen.
Featured Image by ESPN.com
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