Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Setup Men for 2017

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Setup Men for 2017

The Game Haus presents our fantasy baseball rankings: top 5 setup men for 2017.

Setup men have become a premier aspect of baseball in the last decade as teams have begun to acquire multiple high-level relief pitchers in order to lock down the final innings of the game.

Standard fantasy baseball leagues generally do not include holds in their scoring formats, although I believe holds are integral to the game of baseball and thus belong as a stat in the fantasy version as well.

For anyone unfamiliar with a hold, it is a statistic that measures the effectiveness of relievers. A pitcher is rewarded with a hold when he enters the game with his team in the lead in a save situation, which is a lead of no more than three runs, and hands over that lead to another reliever without giving up the lead.

 

Below are the top five setup men heading into the 2017 season.

Exceptions include: Addison Reed, who will close games while Juerys Familia serves his looming suspension, and Cam Bedrosian, who could take Huston Street’s closer job.

Honorable mentions include: Will Harris, Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard, Darren O’Day, Kyle Barraclough, Hunter Strickland, Will Smith, and Derek Law.

 

5. Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Setup Men for 2017

What do David Robertson trade rumors mean for Nate Jones? (Courtesy of zimbio.com)

Nate Jones commonly goes overlooked as he is on the rebuilding Chicago White Sox, although he offers great value as a setup man in 2017.

He finished 2016 with a 2.29 ERA, 10.19 K/9, and 28 holds. This was his second consecutive season of over 10 K/9 and a sub-one WHIP.

Jones had an excellent 2.93 FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if they were to receive average fielding results on balls in play.

With David Robertson trade rumors lurking, Jones may be moved to the closer role, but for the time being he is the fifth best option for holds in 2017.

 

4. Tyler Thornburg, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox acquired the Milwaukee Brewers reliever in December of 2016 in exchange for Travis Shaw, two minor league prospects, and cash considerations.

Thornburg flourished as Milwaukee’s top setup man in 2016, finishing the season with a 2.1 ERA, 20 holds and 13 saves. His mid-90’s fastball and devastating curve helped him strikeout over 12 batters per nine innings. He also had an excellent FIP of 2.83, which suggest that he will find continued success no matter who is fielding behind him.

The 28-year-old will act as the bridge to Craig Kimbrel in 2017, giving him plenty of hold opportunities. Also, if Kimbrel were to go down, Thornburg would be the next man up.

 

3. Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Setup Men for 2017

Brad Brach looks to build on his 2016 All-star campaign heading to 2017. (Courtesy of The Baltimore Sun)

Brach expanded on his 2015 breakout by exploding in 2016. The first-time All-star finished the year with a 2.05 ERA, 10.48 K/9, and 24 holds.

He improved his career averages across the board, most notably cutting his walks per nine innings down by 1.46, to a very manageable 2.85 BB/9.

I do not see any signs of regression for Brach in 2017, as his BABIP (batting average on balls batted in play), ground ball percentage, and homerun to fly ball rates have remained steady over his last three seasons.

Brach is cemented in as the Orioles’ eighth inning guy, with Darren O’Day working the seventh, and closer Zach Britton shutting it down in the ninth.

 

2. Dellin Betances, New York Yankees

The New York Yankees fireman finished 2016 with 28 holds, 12 saves, and an ERA of 3.08. His ERA was his highest in three seasons, although his FIP was an astounding 1.78, suggesting that his fielding contributed largely to his struggles.

The 6 foot 8, 260-pound hurler has increased his K/9 in every consecutive season, and sports a career average of 14.28. He exhibited a career high 15.53 K/9, which lead the league among qualifying relief pitchers in 2016.

He will return to a setup role as the Yankees reacquired closer Aroldis Chapman in free agency.

Betances will continue to dominate batters with his demoralizing cutter, similar to the likes of Kenley Jansen and Mariano Rivera.

The all-world reliever will be an asset for any fantasy team in 2017, whether the league awards points for holds or not.

 

1. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Setup Men for 2017

Andrew Miller is set to continue his regular season dominance in 2017. (Courtesy of Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Arguably the most dominant pitcher in the game, it is no surprise to see Andrew Miller at the top of this list. His 2016 campaign resulted in an astounding 1.45 ERA, 14.89 K/9, 25 holds and 12 saves.

Miller will remain as a late inning work horse for the Indians, offering availability in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. The 31-year-old will remain as Cody Allen’s setup man in 2017 and will be a key contributor in the tribe’s hunt for October.

The lethal lefty offers great value to all leagues, as he will contribute elite ratios and inevitably a few rogue saves.

 

 

 

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fantasy baseball 2017 top sleeper candidates

Fantasy Baseball 2017: Top Sleepers Candidates at Each Position

The Game Haus presents our fantasy baseball 2017 top sleeper candidates at each position for the upcoming Major League Baseball season.

According to Yahoo.com, the following players average draft positions, or ADP, are in, or after round 22. Standard fantasy baseball drafts range from 23-25 rounds, so these players are low risk, high reward.

They offer greater value than other players at their position, as they are being overlooked and selected in much later rounds than players who offer similar value.

 

Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners

fantasy baseball 2017 top sleeper candidates

Mike Zunino is no longer the backstop of the future for the Mariners as 2017 is his year to shine. (Courtesy of lookoutlanding.com)

The 2012 first-round pick has struggled in his time in the show, but 2017 is his year to earn his spot. Zunino is a pure power hitter who has hit fifty career home runs in 350 games.

He will bat sixth behind Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, and Robinson Cano. If this doesn’t get you excited, then I don’t know what will. He will have plenty of chances to rack up some RBIs.

Unfortunately for Zunino, the Seattle Mariners traded for veteran Carlos Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason. This is a bit unnerving, as Ruiz will inevitably steal some at-bats from Zunino. However, I believe that it will be Zunino’s job to lose.

His ADP is currently above 260, as he is commonly going undrafted.

 

Mitch Moreland, 1B, Boston Red Sox

The Gold-Glove award winner in 2016 heads north to join Boston’s star-studded lineup lead by Dustin Pedroia and the killer B’s. Moreland will be the everyday first basemen for the Red Sox and will bat sixth or seventh in the lineup. The Red Sox are looking to make a World Series run in 2017, and Moreland will be a key contributor.

He is currently being selected in the 23rd round, after fellow first basemen Travis Shaw, Brandon Moss, and Danny Valencia. I prefer Moreland to the aforementioned options for multiple reasons.

First, he has a more proven track record, hitting twenty plus bombs three times in his career. Second, the Red Sox lineup adds immense value, as we all saw how well Travis Shaw produced in the six hole last season. Finally, Moreland’s glove will keep him on the field, so there is no need to worry about losing at-bats to Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, or Allen Craig.

Moreland should do just fine in his first season in Boston.

 

Jose Peraza, 2B, SS, OF, Cincinnati Reds

fantasy baseball 2017 top sleeper candidates

Brandon Phillips, Jose Peraza will finally have an open spot in the Cincinnati Reds lineup. (Courtesy of MLBdailydish.com)

The Cincinnati Reds have officially traded second baseman Brandon Phillips to the Atlanta Braves for two pitching prospects. This means that it is officially Jose Peraza time!

Peraza is a top 100 prospect according to MLB.com, Baseballprospectus.com, and Baseball America. The speedster has stolen 244 bases in 611 career games. Also, he has logged innings at second base, shortstop, and center field in his professional career, which will help him remain in the lineup throughout the season.

Peraza will primarily play second base, and will presumably start the season batting at the bottom of the order, but a promotion to the leadoff spot could be in order if he continues to find success at the plate. He has a career batting average of .312 at all levels.

He offers tremendous value through his speed and versatility in 2017.

 

Yangervis Solarte, 3B, 2B, San Diego Padres

Solarte, once a utility man for the Padres, will have the everyday third basemen job in 2017. He will bat in the heart of the order behind All-Star first basemen Wil Myers, allowing him to have plenty of opportunities to do damage. Solarte played in only 109  games in 2016, but managed to manufacture 71 RBIs on 15 home runs, while batting .286.

El Nino may be the most overlooked player in 2017, as he is a clean-up hitter playing an everyday role, but is being selected after utility players like Sean Rodriguez, Jurickson Profar, and Howie Kendrick.

Solarte has a great opportunity to surpass all of his career highs this upcoming season.

 

Danny Espinosa, SS, Los Angeles Angels

fantasy baseball 2017 top sleeper candidates

Danny Espinosa has escaped the platoon that held him back in Washington. (Courtesy of Zimbio.com)

New doors have been opened for Espinosa, as he heads from Washington to Los Angeles to be the Angels everyday second basemen. The slugging middle infielder hit 24 home runs with 72 RBIs in 2016, surpassing his former career highs.

He will bat towards the end of sneaky deep Angels lineup, which will give him ample RBI opportunities. Espinosa is being selected in the 23rd round, after other shortstops including Alcides Escobar, Jose Reyes, and J.J. Hardy.

The 29-year-old can still improve his approach at the plate, and I would not be surprised by a 30 home run, 70 RBI campaign.

 

Michael Saunders OF, Philadelphia Phillies

The first-time All-Star in 2016 signed a one-year deal with a team option for a second with the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason. He will be one of their everyday corner outfielders and will bat sixth behind the young Phillies core of Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and Tommy Joseph.

Saunders provides great upside as he hit .298 with 16 home runs and 48 RBIs before the All-Star break in 2016. His value comes as he is being selected in the 23rd round after fellow outfielders Nick Markakis, Melvin Upton Jr., and Steve Pearce.

Saunders will have to bounce back to his first half form from 2016 if the Phillies want to have any serious success in 2017.

 

Chris Tillman SP, Baltimore Orioles

fantasy baseball 2017 top sleeper candidates

Chris Tillman looks to recover from his disastrous second half of 2016. (Courtesy of csnmidatlantic.com)

Tillman has completed four consecutive seasons with over 170 innings pitched, with an average of 147 strikeouts per year. He will be atop of the Baltimore Orioles rotation for another year as he looks to improve on his career high win total of 16 from 2016.

Tillman had a phenomenal first half last season, sporting a 3.4 ERA and 7.8 K/9. His second half was atrocious, but he has shown enough consistency in the past to not warrant any serious regression.

I suspect Tillman to make adjustments, as he did from 2015 to 2016, where he went from a 4.99 ERA to a 3.77. Also worth noting that he had a sub three ERA on the road, and a four plus at home, so take that into consideration as well.

He is being selected in the 22nd round, after other starters including Clay Buchholz and Mike Montgomery. Tillman will eat innings and have great opportunities to win games for the Orioles come 2017.

 

Fernando Rodney, CL, Arizona Diamondbacks

The veteran closer signed a one-year contract for $2.75 million with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason. He is coming of a 25-save season where he exhibited a K/9 of 10.2, which is well above league average. His K/9 has surpassed 10 three times in his last four seasons. This is encouraging as his K/9 have not dipped even though his velocity has.

The 39-year-old will be the closer for the Diamondbacks to start 2017. With the return of A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and others, Rodney could be in store for an abundance of save opportunities. He is being selected in the 24th round, after many set-up men, including three Chicago Cubs, Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, and Koji Uehara.

Rodney’s value should spike as owners realize his value as a closer, so do not be afraid to “reach” for him in 20 or 21st round.

 

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Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: The Value of Versatility

Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: The Value of Versatility

The Game Haus presents you with its third installment of fantasy baseball tips and tricks: the value of versatility. Having versatility within your team is key, as it simplifies decision making and roster adjustments.

Drafting a player with multiple eligibilities allows you to have flexibility when building the rest of your team. It also makes daily roster moves easier, as you can set your lineup in multiple different ways each week. Finally, players with multiple eligibilities can quickly fill the spot of an injured player, allowing you to quickly adjust your roster without a hassle.

The following players offer extra value through their versatility, as they will be eligible at three or more positions in 2017.

 

Matt Carpenter STL 1B, 2B, 3B

Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: The Value of Versatility

Matt Carpenter looks to help the St. Louis Cardinals regain the ever elusive NL Central Crown. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

After three consecutive seasons with at least 650 plate appearances, the thirty-one-year-old had his 2016 campaign cut short due to hand and oblique injuries. He looks to bounce back and lead the St. Louis Cardinals to a playoff-birth in 2017.

Carpenter will retain eligibility at first, second and third base, as he started at least forty games at each position in 2016. He offers similar levels of value at each position as he ranks top fifteen in all three.

According to yahoo.com, Carpenter is currently being selected as the thirteenth first basemen and ninth second and third basemen.

The three-time all-star will be the Cardinals primary first basemen and bat third this upcoming season. He offers great value as he is a player who can hit for power, average and will have the opportunity to score and drive in runs. I believe Carpenter will have a great year, surpassing his career high home run and RBI totals.

Carpenter’s productivity and versatility give him huge value come 2017.

 

Sean Rodriguez ATL OF, 2B, SS

Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: The Value or Versatility

Sean Rodriguez will make his move from super utility man, to every day second basemen in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Rodriguez may be more known for his fist fight against the water cooler last season than his performance on the field.

The thirty-one-year-old signed a two-year deal with the Atlanta Braves, where he will begin the season as their primary second basemen and will bat at the bottom half of the order.

Rodriguez will be eligible at three positions, second base, third base and outfield, after playing the utility roll for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season.

In 2016, the utility man batted .270 with eighteen bombs in a mere 342 plate appearances. At this pace, in 600 plate appearances, he would have finished the year with thirty-one home runs. If Rodriguez can maintain his starting job at second base, he will offer tremendous value as he is currently being selected as thirtieth second basemen and shortstop, and the eightieth outfielder off the board.

Rodriguez’s versatility, opportunity, and average draft position give him respectable value come 2017.

 

Howie Kendrick PHI OF, 2B, 3B

Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: The Value of Versatility

How will Howie Kendrick be affected by his move from the NL west to the East in 2017. (Courtesy of MLB.com)

Kendrick finished 2016 with career lows in batting average and slugging percentage, although his career averages suggest that he will return to form in 2017.

He will move from west to east as was traded from the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Philadelphia Phillies in November of 2016.The veteran utility man looks start the year as the Phillies left fielder, although will also be eligible at second and third base.

He will slot in at the top half of the order, batting ahead of young sluggers Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph, giving him ample opportunities to score runs.

Kendrick offers solid value as he is being selected as the twenty-ninth second and third basemen, and the seventieth outfielder off the draft board.

 

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Players to avoid

Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: Players to Avoid in 2017

The 2017 Major League Baseball season is upon us, as pitchers and catchers report to spring training in less than two weeks. In order to ease the drafting process, The Game Haus presents you with its’ second installment of our fantasy baseball tips and tricks series: players to avoid in 2017.

The following players are being valued too high compared to other players at their position, and should be passed on in drafts.

This specific guide is for re-draft leagues only, and does not discuss any keeper or dynasty league strategies.

 

Adam DuvalL CIN OF

In his first full season, Duvall tallied thirty-three homeruns, with 103 runs batted in, while batting .241. He participated in the 2016 homerun derby after hitting twenty-three homeruns in the first half of the year. The twenty-eight-year-old will be the everyday left fielder and cleanup hitter for the Cincinnati Reds come 2017.

Players to avoid in 2017

Adam Duvall looks to prove doubters wrong as he begins his second MLB campaign. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

He is a proven power threat, as he mashed 130 bombs in six minor league seasons, although the hit on Duval is his ability to get on base. His major-league career on base percentage of .291 is a red flag. According to FanGraphs, a player’s OBP should be sixty points higher than their batting average, where Duval’s is only fifty. Also, Duvall will see more off-speed pitches in the cleanup spot. This is a concern as he already sports a poor career walk to strikeout ratio of .24.

Another thing to consider is, the more at-bats he accumulates, the more information pitchers will have on him. I predict a severe drop off in batting average as pitchers gain an understanding of how to approach Duvall.

Finally, we must consider alternative options. According to couchmanagers.com , two players who are being selected after Duvall, are Kole Calhoun and Jay Bruce.

Calhoun offers a solid power upside with much higher floors regarding batting average. He will also bat ahead of Mike Trout in 2017, which gives him a great opportunity to score ninety runs for the third time in his short career.

Bruce offers similar power upside to Duval, as he hit thirty-three homers in 2016, and has a similar career batting average of .248. Although, the major difference between the two is experience, as Bruce has nine seasons under his belt, with 241 homeruns and 737 RBI’s.

 

Matt Harvey NYM SP

2010 first-round pick, Matt Harvey, will enter his fifth MLB season come 2017. After three seasons of a sub three earned run average, he ended his 2016 campaign with a 4.86.

Players to avoid in fantasy baseball

Matt Harvey looks to bounce back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

The major risk with Harvey is his surgically repaired elbow. He underwent season ending surgery to fix thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS). TOS can cause a painful, swollen, blue arm, and can also lead to eye problems and vision loss. These symptoms were the prime causes of his lack of production in 2015. The procedure consists of removing one rib to release pressure off of the entrapped nerves in his neck and shoulder.

The only pitcher two pitchers to reach 1000 innings pitched post-surgery are Kenny Rodgers, who underwent the surgery at thirty-six, and Aaron Cook, at twenty-five. Other than Cook, some notable pitchers who underwent TOS surgery before they turned thirty include Kip Wells, Jeremy Bonderman, Alex Cobb, Matt Harrison, and Jamie Garcia.

Harvey’s risk is too high based on where he is being drafted. Pitchers being selected after him include Julio Teheran and Tanner Roark.

Teheran is coming off of his fourth straight 180 plus inning season, while nursing a career 3.39 ERA. The Atlanta Braves’ twenty-six-year-old is a two-time all-star, and a trade to a contending club could sky rocket his value.

Roark is coming off of his second sub three ERA season in three years. He will slot in as the third starter for the heavy favorite in the National League East, the Washington Nationals.

 

Javier Baez ChC 2B

The ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft had his first season of significant playing time in 2016. He finished the year with fourteen homeruns, twelve steals, and a .273 batting average in 450 plate appearances.

Players to avoid in fantasy baseball

Javier Baez hopes to contribute to back-to-back World Series titles come 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

If Baez can amount 600 plate appearances, he has twenty-twenty upside, but 2017 will not be the year. With the excessive amounts of talent in Chicago, the at bats will have to be spread equally. World Series MVP Ben Zobrist will take away playing time at second base when Jon Jay and Albert Almora start in the outfield; as well as when Wilson Contreras moves to left field and Miguel Montero mans the backstop.

When he is in the lineup, the NLCS MVP will bat at the bottom half of the order, limiting his opportunity to score runs and produce RBI’s. Second basemen being selected after Baez include Jonathan Schoop, Logan Forsythe, and Dustin Pedroia.

Schoop, who hit twenty-five homeruns in 2016, will bat in the heart of the Baltimore Orioles lineup behind Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo. This will give him ample opportunities for RBI’s come 2017.

Forsythe and Pedroia both project to bat leadoff, which, barring injuries, guarantees them each 600 plate appearances. Both will bat ahead of MVP candidates, in Corey Seager in Los Angeles, and Mookie Betts in Boston, which gives them a high chance of scoring over 100 runs.

 

David Dahl COL OF

Like Baez and Harvey, Dahl was a top ten pick in the first round. He was called up for sixty-three games in 2016, finishing the year with seven homeruns, five steals, with a .315 average. If he continued the season at that pace, he would finish with eighteen homeruns, twelve steals, and sixty-one RBI’s. Although he batted primarily in the five hole in 2016, he will move down to the seven spot with the acquisition of Ian Desmond.

Players to avoid in fantasy baseball

David Dahl looks to earn starting left fielders job in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com

One issue with Dahl is that he will be battling for playing time with eight year veteran Gerardo Parra. Parra, the two-time gold glover, struggled in 2016 as he dealt with a lingering ankle injury. Now that he is healthy, he is sure to take some playing time away from Dahl.

Another problem with Dahl is his average draft position. Dahl is selected as a top twenty-five outfielder, which is much to high for a seventh hitter who may share time with a veteran.

Other options in the outfield are Stephen Piscotty and Lorenzo Cain.

Piscotty finished the season with twenty-two homeruns and eighty-five RBI’s in his first full MLB season. He will be the everyday right fielder and will bat cleanup for the Cardinals in 2017. Slotting in behind Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz, and Matt Carpenter will give him plenty of RBI opportunities.

Cain looks to lead the Kansas City Royals back to the promise land in 2017. He will continue to bat third in a star-studded lineup that reached the world series only two years ago. Cain poses as a twenty-twenty threat who can also bat around .300. He is in store for a bounce back candidate after an injury riddled 2016 season.

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Fantasy Baseball Tips

Fantasy Baseball Tips and Tricks: Who, What, When, Where, and Why?

The Game Haus presents its first installment of our fantasy baseball tips and tricks series. We intend to give fantasy baseball owners, new and old, some advice to improve their outcomes in 2017.

Fantasy baseball is complicated. Owners must adjust to the grueling 162 game season, deeper rosters, and longer drafts. To start, we have developed this quick guide to aid your difficult drafting decision. This specific guide is for re-draft leagues only, and does not discuss any keeper or dynasty league strategies.

Who do you draft?

With so many available options, it is often hard to make a selection. You will have to make a difficult decision between two or more players at some point in your upcoming draft. Before you come to a verdict, consider the following criteria.

What team do they play for?

Great teams produce great fantasy performers. The top five scoring offenses in 2016 were the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals. Players in these lineups have a greater chance of producing and scoring runs, as they have more talent around them.

An example of a possible draft dilemma could be between Edwin Encarnacion of the Cleveland Indians and Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves. Both players will be selected around the same draft position, as they are both first basemen and offer similar upside. However, I would select Encarnacion, as Cleveland had a top five scoring offense in 2016, while the Braves finished with the third worst.

For pitchers, the more runs that their offense scores, the better chance they have to accumulate wins. A third pitcher on the Red Sox or Cubs, who finished with top five offenses, may be a more attractive pick than an ace on the Oakland Athletics or Philadelphia Phillies, who finished with bottom two offenses in 2016.

When are they getting drafted?

Draft position is an imperative factor when deciding who to select. Two players may offer the same amount of value, but will be drafted three rounds apart. One key to decision making is understanding alternative options.

Ranking players in tiers is a good strategy to help decision making. Tiers allow you to identify steep drop offs in talent at specific positions. If there are multiple players left in one tier, you will be able to pass on that position until a later round. Also, if there is only one player left in a tier, it alerts you that their will soon be a steep drop off in talent at that position.

Where do they bat?

We can all agree that runs (R) and runs batted in (RBI) are lineup dependent. In other words, players batting third, fourth, and fifth will have more RBI opportunities than someone batting seventh, eighth, or ninth.

A common drafting mistake is missing out on RBI opportunities. In order to avoid this mistake, make notes of players who will be batting in the middle of lineups, as even the worst offenses have middle of the order contributors.

Why are you selecting them?

If you are in a points league, selecting the best player on your draft board is a good strategy, but do you select a pitcher or a hitter? This depends on how your roster is already filled out. Keeping your team balanced is key. Filling out your pitching rotation and starting lineup simultaneously will help keep your roster balanced.

If you are playing in a categories league, you must know which categories you are covering when selecting a player. If you finish a draft and realize that Joey Votto will lead your team in steals, you may be forced to punt that category.  In order to avoid these types of mistakes, make a list of your teams desired amount of home runs, rbi’s, runs, and steals. During your draft, add up the projections to see how your team stacks up.

 

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Related articles across the web

Fantasy Baseball Scoring: What is the Perfect Scoring Format

A common debate arises when arguing which fantasy baseball scoring format is best. One of the premier websites for fantasy baseball is ESPN.com. They offer a multitude of scoring options, including three standard scoring formats: rotisserie, season points, and head to head.

Rotisserie

In rotisserie scoring, “teams are ranked from first to last in each statistical category. Points are awarded to the order in each category, then totaled to determine an overall score and league rank” (ESPN.com). This scoring is best suited for leagues who look to avoid the flukes of head-to-head matchups. In head-to-head, you can score the second most points in a week, and lose to the team who scored the most. Rotisserie scoring creates a free for all, where all teams battle for the most total statistics in each category.

Season Points

“Standings are based on the accumulation of points covering all statistical categories and combined into one total points column” (ESPN.com). Season points leagues give point values to individual statistics. A home run may be worth four fantasy points, where a double may be worth two. The team with the most overall points at the end of the season wins.

Head-to-Head: Each Category (H2H)

Head-to-head: scoring each category individually allows the league manager “to select “X” number of statistical categories. For each scoring period, team totals are accumulated, and a win, loss, or tie is credited in each category based on the matchup results” (ESPN.com). The results of an ESPN standard H2H category matchup can look like 5-4-1, indicating that you won five categories, lost four, and tied one. This scoring system creates one on one matchups, where teams fight to cover more categories than their opponent. I believe this is the best scoring format, although the number of categories must be altered in order to be perfect.

What is the perfect scoring system?

Major league teams are split into divisions and play head-to-head matchups, so why should fantasy be any other way? I believe H2H is the best scoring format as it adds realism to fantasy leagues. Rivalries are created as teams match up against each other two to three times a season. The creation of divisions affect trades, rivalries, and the playoffs. Also, this scoring format requires more strategy than points than rotisserie leagues. It forces owners to consider a multitude of categories when drafting their team, opposed to blindly drafting the best player available.

The standard H2H scoring comprises ten categories, five hitting and five pitching. Hitting categories include runs, homeruns, runs batted in, stolen bases, and batting average. Pitching categories include strikeouts, wins, earned run average, and walk/hits per inning pitched. After researching the results of the 2016 season, I found a severe flaw in the standard five by five (5X5) format.

At first glance, you can see that Jonathan Villar and Jean Segura finished above Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado on the player rater. Although Villar and Segura impressed in 2016, Goldschmidt and Arenado finished as the eleventh and fifth respectively in the MVP voting. That was the first red flag. As I continue to scroll, the next name that jumps out is Eduardo Nunez, who finished ahead of Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Wil Myers, and Freddie Freeman. Nunez was an all-star for the first time in 2016, but did not have close to a better season than any of the previous names. This was strike two. Finally, I made my way to the forty-fifth overall player and sixth best shortstop, Manny Machado. Seeing a top five most valuable player candidate get disrespected like that was the last straw.

The following are the stat lines for the aforementioned batters in order from highest to lowest on the 5X5 player rater.

You be the judge on whether or not this order is correct.

Villar looks to retain steal title in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

 

4. Jonathan Villar MIL .285 92 19 63 62

5. Jean Segura ARI .319 102 20 64 33

6. Paul Goldschmidt ARI .297 106 24 95 32

8. Nolan Arenado COL .294 116 41 133 2

17. Eduardo Nunez MIN/SFG .288 73 16 67 40

18. Robinson Cano SEA .298 107 39 103 0

19. Ryan Braun MIL .305 80 30 90 16

21. Wil Myers SD .259 99 28 94 28

Segura looks to make smooth transition to Seattle in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

22. Freddie Freeman ATL .302 102 34 91 6

27. Manny Machado BAL .294 105 37 96 0

Clearly the 5X5 format is flawed, so what is the solution?

The solution is to dilute the steals category. In order to do this, the league manager will have to add more categories focused around batting statistics. Steals are the most overrated stat in fantasy baseball. In the 5X5 format, steals harshly inflate a player’s value. The ideal number of categories is eighteen, which is a nine by nine (9X9) format.

The added hitting categories include extra base hits, total bases, walks, and on base plus slugging percentage. The added hitting categories enhance value to players who get on base and hit with power. It weakens the worth of players who primarily get their value from steals.

Since hitting categories were added, pitching must be added as well. The new pitching categories include quality starts, batting average against, and strike outs per nine. The additional categories add value to pitchers who eat innings, strike out batters, and keep guys off base.

How the 9X9 format affects the Player Rater

Villar and Segura finished as top 5 overall hitters in 5X5, but in 9X9 they finished at eleven and sixteen respectively.

Goldschmidt looks to continue his search for an MVP in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Eduardo Nunez moves from seventeen in the 5X5 format, to fifty-five.

The 9X9 player rater for hitters looks as follows.

6. Paul Goldschmidt ARI .297 106 24 95 32

8. Nolan Arenado COL .294 116 41 133 2

9. Freddie Freeman ATL .302 102 34 91 6

11. Jonathan Villar MIL .285 92 19 63 62

16. Jean Segura ARI .319 102 20 64 33

20. Robinson Cano SEA .298 107 39 103 0

21. Manny Machado BAL .294 105 37 96 0

Is Arenado the games best hitter? (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

24. Ryan Braun MIL .305 80 30 90 16

27. Wil Myers SD .259 99 28 94 28

55. Eduardo Nunez SFG .288 73 16 67 40

I believe the format of H2H category leagues must be 9×9 in order to have a player rater that accurately represents the best players in the game. The more categories you add, the more diluted the steals category will become. This enhances the value of MVP caliber players whose value is lessened due to lack of steals.

 

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Crying Tiers of Joy: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Rankings

The MLB season is closing in! With only sixty-six days of preparation left, it’s time to tackle our early 2017 fantasy baseball pitcher rankings.

I have categorized the top 100 pitchers into twelve different tiers. Creating tiers allow owners to separate and compare players based on their projected value and cost. Players at the bottom of a tier present more value, as they project to have similar stats as a player at the top of a tier, with less of a cost.

Tiers below are given a star rating. A five-star rating is given to the best of the best, where a zero-star rating is given to an average, waiver wire pickup type player.

The top and bottom pitcher in each tier will be profiled below.

Tier 1 – 5 StarS

Kershaw looks to reign in fourth Cy Young heading into 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

To qualify as a five-star pitcher, a player must consistently have seasons with a sub three ERA (earned run average), sub one WHIP (walks/hits per innings pitched), and over 200 strikeouts.

  1. Clayton Kershaw
  2. Max Scherzer
  3. Madison Bumgarner

Clayton Kershaw remains the golden standard of major league pitching. He has eight consecutive seasons with an ERA in the twos and a career strike outs per nine innings (K/9) of 9.8. If the 28-year-old retired today, he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Kershaw looks to recover from his back ailments and return to his godly form in 2017.

Madison Bumgarner emerges as a five-star pitcher in 2017. Last season was his sixth straight with 200 innings pitched. He has averaged 214 strikeouts per year over the last six seasons, and continues to improve those totals every year. The great playoff performer sports a career 2.99 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP. Bumgarner, at only twenty-seven years old, will remain in Cy Young talks for years to come.

Tier 2 – 4.5 StarS

Thor looks to electrify the competition in his third MLB season. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

This tier is home to the man that will one day overtake Clayton Kershaw for the number one ranked pitcher spot in baseball.

  1. Noah Syndergaard

Thor looks to continue his dominance heading into 2017. The Mets ace enters his third season with hopes of being a top 20 MVP candidate for the second year straight. With a career K/9 of 10.4, Syndergaard will be fanning batters into oblivion for the next decade. A lack of experience is the only reason he is left out of the five-star tier, as he is yet to log 200 innings in a season. He has the potential to be a top 3 fantasy pitcher in 2017.

 

Tier 3 – 4 StarS

Arrieta looks to impress in important contract year. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

To be considered for tier three, one must have multiple seasons with 200 innings pitched, 200 strike outs, and an ERA in the low threes.

  1. Chris Sale
  2. Corey Kluber
  3. Johnny Cueto
  4. Jon Lester
  5. David Price
  6. Justin Verlander
  7. Jake Arrieta

Confident Chris Sale enters 2017 with adversity, will he perform in his first season with Boston? The answer is uncertain, but the numbers suggest he will. Sale has a career 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9. He joins a talented and seasoned pitching staff that will relieve him of pressure, as he no longer the lone ace in the rotation. There is no reason Sale can’t finish as a top five Cy Young finisher for a fourth straight season.

Jake Arrieta schemes his way into the four-star category in 2017. The 31-year-old is coming off of two consecutive seasons of 197 plus innings, 190 strike outs, with an average ERA of 2.44. Arrieta signed a one year, $15.6 million contract for 2017, and looks to impress in order to receive a pay day in 2018. With the Cubs lineup currently projected as the top offense, a fourth consecutive top ten Cy Young finish for Arrieta is more than likely.

 

Tier 4 – 4 StarS

Darvish looks to bounce back from injury ridden 2016. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

To qualify for this tier, player must have a high floor and high ceiling. They must show a strong potential to reach 200 innings pitched, 200 strike outs, and a low three ERA. Players in this tier may or may not have reached these marks before, but will do so in 2017.

 

  1. Yu Darvish
  2. Stephan Strasburg
  3. Jacob deGrom
  4. Cole Hamels
  5. Chris Archer
  6. Carlos Martinez

Yu Darvish looks to return to super star form in 2017. He is coming an injury ridden season where he was limited to a mere seventeen starts. When healthy, Darvish is a menace. His career K/9 is 11.3, showing that he has the potential to strike out 260 plus batters. Also, his career ERA sits just below 3.30. Darvish’s extremely high upside is accompanied by injury concerns, but name a player that isn’t.

St. Louis Cardinals Ace, Carlos Martinez, looks to build on his early Major League success heading the upcoming season.  With two consecutive seasons of 180 innings, and a career K/9 of 8.5, Martinez provides a high floor with a potential to continue to improve. The 25-year-old hurler provided a 9.2 K/9 in the minors, which shows that his strike out totals can continue to improve as he adjusts to life in the big leagues.

 

Tier 5 – 4 Stars

Pretty Ricky looks to double his Cy Young total in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Players in this tier WILL contend for a Cy Young, although are being over looked as they have less of a track record.

  1. Rick Porcello
  2. Aaron Sanchez
  3. Michael Fulmer

Rick Porcello was a completely different pitcher in 2016 than in any of his previous campaigns. He started to make better in game adjustments, allowing him to get through lineups multiple times over. Also, he has done a great job eating innings, as he managed to finish sixth in innings pitched in 2016.  Pretty Ricky has the potential to win another twenty games, and compete for back-to-back Cy Young awards.

2016 Rookie of the year award winner, Michael Fulmer, shows promise of being a future Cy Young candidate. With a career K/9 of 8.4 and an ERA of 3.17, his potential is through the roof. The 23-year-old former first-round pick will look to record 200 innings for the first time in 2017.

 

Tier 6 – 4 StarS

Can Kyle Hendricks repeat his miraculous 2016 season? (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

These players are proven inning eaters, have great ratios, but lack the strikeout upside that makes a top ten pitcher. These players are lower risk than the comeback candidates, but have a lower ceiling as well.

  1. Kyle Hendricks
  2. Masahiro Tanaka
  3. Kenta Maeda
  4. Jose Quintana
  5. Julio Teheran

Top three Cy Young finisher in 2016, Kyle Hendricks looks to continue his dominance heading into 2017. He managed to finish with a 2.13 ERA, .979 WHIP, 170 strikeouts in 190 innings. Even if Hendricks adds an entire point to his ERA, he will still be under 3.2. His dominant sinker and change up will continue to keep hitters off balance in 2017.

Two time all-star Julio Teheran looks to help a young Braves team reach new heights this upcoming season. With a career ERA of 3.39 and K/9 of 7.8, Teheran has continued to impress on a lack luster Braves team. The Braves offense started off 2016 at a historically bad pace, but managed to be a top five offense in the second half. This gives Teheran hope improve his career high win total of fourteen.

 

Tier 7 – 3.5 StarS

Gerrit Cole looks for redemption in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

This tier includes players who look to recover from sub-par or shortened 2016 campaigns. These players are higher risk draft picks, with higher ceilings.

  1. Gerrit Cole
  2. Danny Salazar
  3. Carlos Carrasco
  4. Zack Greinke
  5. Matt Harvey
  6. Felix Hernandez
  7. Dallas Kuechel
  8. Sonny Gray
  9. Garrett Richards

Gerrit Cole finished 2015 as a top five Cy Young finisher and top twenty MVP candidate. He endured a tough 2016 campaign where he made twenty-one starts with his career worst ERA, WHIP, and K/9. A lingering rib injury, which is gone by the way side, was the cause of his 2016 struggles. The twenty-six-year-old will return to form in 2017, rejoining the Cy Young conversation.

Garrett Richards elected to skip surgery to repair a UCL tear in his throwing elbow in 2016, and instead received a plasma injection to repair the injury. Before the injury, Richards started six games, nursing a 2.34 ERA and 8.8 K/9. Richards will be the ace for the Los Angeles Angels in 2017, and hopes to return to his 2014 or 2015 form, where he averaged a 2.82 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts.

 

Tier 8 – 3.5 StarS

Will Danny Duffy go into cruise control after inking five-year contract? (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

This tier may be small, but is important none the less. These players have proven to show top-twenty pitcher upside, but don’t have the names to match. They tend to fall in drafts but have tremendous value.

  1. Danny Duffy
  2. J.A. Happ
  3. Tanner Roark

Danny Duffy is expected to be the number one starter for the Royals heading into 2017. He just received a five year, $65 million deal. The twenty-eight-year-old made the transition from the bullpen to the rotation look easy last season. Duffy struck out 188 in 179.2 innings, resulting in a 9.4 K/9. He will reach the 200 innings and 200 strikeout marks in 2017.

Tanner Roark is the most over looked and undervalued players in my opinion. He has two seasons with over thirty starts, over 198 innings, under a 2.85 ERA, while averaging 154 strikeouts. He will slot in behind Max Scherzer and Stephan Strasburg in a very strong Nationals rotation. With the success of the Nationals imminent, Roark’s chances of matching or passing his career win total of sixteen is likely.

 

Tier 9 – 3 Star

McCullers looks to transition from prospect to prodigy in 2017. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Tier nine consists of young studs who are ready to explode. These players will have the opportunity to be enormous contributors come 2017.

  1. Lance McCullers
  2. Kevin Gausman
  3. Marcus Stroman
  4. Steven Matz
  5. Jameson Taillon
  6. Alex Reyes
  7. Jared Eickhoff
  8. Joe Ross
  9. Sean Manea
  10. Aaron Nola
  11. Julio Urias
  12. Blake Snell
  13. Carlos Rodon

2012 first round pick, Lance McCullers, looks to continue his tirade on the MLB. He has started a total of 26 games, resulting in a career 3.22 ERA and 10.2 K/9. McCullers will slot in as Houston’s number two starter in 2017. He will start over thirty games and log over 200 innings for the first time in his career next season.

Carlos Rodon, former third overall pick in 2014, looks to finally reach his potential in 2017. He has struggled early in his career, with an ERA of 3.9 and WHIP of 1.4. Although the bright spot in Rodon’s game is his devastating slider, which helps him strikeout 9.1 batters per nine. Rodon will begin to figure things out in 2017.

 

Tier 10 – 2 Star

McHugh looks to bounce back and revitalize a young Houston Rotation. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

The tenth tier of pitchers is loaded with upside. These players show high K/9 potential, along with being young enough to continue to improve their ratios.

  1. Colin McHugh
  2. Drew Pomeranz
  3. Jake Odorizzi
  4. Matt Moore
  5. Jon Gray
  6. Robbie Ray
  7. Drew Smyly
  8. Michael Pineda
  9. James Paxton

Colin McHugh finished 2016 with his worst ERA and WHIP in his three seasons as a starter, although he had a career high in strikeouts. McHugh looks to rebound to his 2015 Cy Young candidate form where he won nineteen games, with 171 strikeouts. The Astro’s look to impress in 2017, and McHugh will be a huge part of that.

James Paxton is ready to break out. The six foot four lefty managed 8.7 K/9 in 2016, along with a career high in innings pitched and games started. Paxton will be a heavy contributor for the Mariners this upcoming season where he will log a career high in innings pitcher, strikeouts and wins.

 

Tier 11 – 1 Star

We have to respect our veterans! These veterans provide above average value as they are reliable inning eaters with proven track records. They provide value later in drafts because as they tend to fall in draft position due to age concerns.

Invader Zimm looks to recover from 2016 blunders. (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

  1. Rich Hill
  2. Ian Kennedy
  3. John Lackey
  4. Gio Gonzalez
  5. Marco Estrada
  6. Francisco Liriano
  7. Jeff Samardzija
  8. Jason Hammel
  9. Chris Tillman
  10. Adam Wainwright
  11. Lance Lynn
  12. Hisashi Iwakuma
  13. Jeremy Hellickson
  14. Mike Leake
  15. Jordan Zimmerman

The anomaly Rich Hill just received a three year, $45 million contract as a thirty-six-year-old pitcher. The age may affect people’s desire to select Hill, but his skill set says otherwise. He has a demoralizing 12-6 curveball, which helped him reach a career high in K/9 as a starter, with 10.5. He will be an integral part to the Dodgers rotation in 2017, and should be drafted in all leagues.

I’m not sure who showed up in Jordan Zimmerman’s uniform last season, but it wasn’t him. The imposter registered career worsts across the board, with a 4.87 ERA, 1.367 WHIP, and 5.6 K/9. No one was more frustrated with Zimmerman’s 2016 than himself, which leads me to believe he will not stand for another disappointing season. If the Tigers have any hope of making the playoffs, Zimmerman will have to step up and return to his form, as his career averages are 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9.

 

Tier 12 – 0 Star

Will Bundy find success post Tommy John surgery? (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Players in this final tier will commonly go undrafted in standard ten team leagues, and are worth the low risk investment. They have had hype in the past, and show potential to be successful in 2017.

  1. Dylan Bundy
  2. Joe Musgrove
  3. Tyler Glasnow
  4. Anthony Desclafani
  5. Eduardo Rodriguez
  6. Trevor Bauer
  7. Taijuan Walker
  8. Dan Straily
  9. Mike Foltynewicz
  10. Matt Shoemaker
  11. Wei-Yin Chen

    Can Conely improve his ratios enough to become fantasy relevant in 2017? (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

  12. Ervin Santana
  13. Mike Leake
  14. Mike Montgomery
  15. Robert Gsellman
  16. Brandon Finnegan
  17. Patrick Corbin
  18. Zach Davies
  19. Ivan Nova
  20. Tyler Anderson
  21. Andrew Triggs
  22. Jharel Cotton
  23. Tyler Skaggs
  24. Daniel Norris
  25. Alex Cobb
  26. Adam Conely

Former fourth overall pick Dylan Bundy looks to gain more major league experience in 2017. He has battled adversity throughout his short career as he underwent reconstructive Tommy John surgery in 2013. Bundy will be an important part of the Orioles fragile rotation come next season. He will continue to improve on his career highs by staying healthy and striking out batters. His career 8.4 K/9 bodes well as Bundy has shown above average strikeout ability at all levels. Whether or not the ratio stats are there, the K’s will be.

Adam Conely is will end up on all of my teams this season. He has struggled mightily in the Majors, displaying a career ERA of 3.82, WHIP of 1.36, and 3.7 walks per nine (BB/9). I understand this is disconcerting, but his K/9 keep me believing. The twenty-six-year-old has averaged 8.2 K/9 through all levels, which gives me hope that he can continue to improve and possibly break out in 2017.

Players to Keep Your Eye On: Early 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

With the 2017 Major League Baseball season quickly approaching, it is time to start talking fantasy. In 2016, we witnessed the most strike outs, as well as the second most home runs ever in a season. After an electric 2016 campaign, it is time to start preparing for a wild 2017. It is too early to release positional rankings, as it is only January. So I intend to inform you about early 2017 fantasy baseball sleepers.

What qualifies a player as a “sleeper”? 

First, a player must be undervalued.

To be undervalued, a player’s average draft position, or ADP, must be below the ADP of other players with similar statistics. In 2016, according to ESPN.com, Rick Porcello was selected as the 230th player off the board. He finished as the 6th best starting pitcher in 5X5 ESPN standard leagues. His teammate, David Price, was selected as the 27th player off the board, yet he finished as the 21st overall pitcher. Porcello was tremendously undervalued in 2016, and I intend to help find undervalued players that can help contribute to 2017 fantasy championship.

Second, a player must be overlooked.

Some people argue that players can be considered “sleepers” if they are drafted in the third round, but have first round value. I argue that this makes a player undervalued. To be a sleeper, a player must be overlooked and passed on until later rounds in the draft. In 2016, Jose Ramirez went undrafted in majority of leagues, and managed to finish as a top 50 overall player. Ramirez went overlooked in 2016, and I aim to inform you about players that cannot be overlooked heading into 2017.

David Peralta – OF Arizona Diamondbacks

In 2017, David Peralta will continue his ascension from mediocre minor league pitcher to impact middle of the order bat. Peralta, who was originally signed in 2006 by the St. Louis Cardinals as a relief pitcher, was transformed into a corner outfielder in 2011. He subsequently slashed .392/.429/.661 with 17 home runs, 81 runs batted in and 30 doubles in 85 games in the independent North American League.

Peralta’s first minor league experience came in 2014 with the Arizona Diamondbacks Double-A affiliate, where he batted .297 with 17 doubles and 6 home runs in 53 games. He was then called up to the bigs, where Peralta impressed, batting .286 with 12 doubles, 9 triples, 8 home runs, 40 runs, and 36 runs batted in.

In 2015, Peralta’s first full season in the majors, he slashed .312/.371/.522. He also lead the league in triples with 10, along with 26 doubles, 18 home runs, and 78 runs batted in. Peralta dealt with a lingering wrist injury in 2016, which limited him to only 183 plate appearances in 48 games played. When healthy, he has massive upside.

It is only January, but Peralta is currently being severely under-valued. His ADP on couchmanagers.com is currently 221, which means he is being selected as the 63rd outfielder. I believe that Peralta is easily capable of being a top 30 outfielder, as he is expected to rejoin a star-studded Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. He will bat clean up behind four-time all-star and two-time runner-up MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, and 2015 all-star and top 15 MVP candidate, A.J. Pollock. Peralta has shown his ability to hit for power and average and will help contribute to many fantasy championships.

Josh Bell – 1B/OF Pittsburgh Pirates

A former 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates’ second round pick, Bell was called up in early July to see his first major league action in 2016. He batted .273 with 19 runs batted in and 11 extra base hits in a mere 128 at bats. He will be eligible at first base and outfield in fantasy leagues next season.

Bell projects as a first basemen with limited power, although he has an uncanny ability to get on base. He spent two seasons at the Triple-A level, amassing 629 plate appearances, while slashing .306/.396/.476, hitting 16 home runs, 53 extra base hits, and 78 runs batted in.

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Josh Bell looks to help the Pirates get back on track in 2017. (Courtesy of rumbunter.com)

He is projected to bat second in a star-studded lineup, ahead of former MVP Andrew McCutcheon, all-star Starling Marte, and budding star Gregory Polanco. For Bell, this is an ideal spot in the lineup, as he has excelled at getting on base at all minor-league levels.

According to couchmanagers.com, Bell is currently being selected as the 22nd first basemen off the board, with an average draft position of 202. This places him thirty spots behind unsigned first basemen, Mike Napoli, as well as eighty spots behind aging superstars Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.

Bell has already dropped his weight from 248 to 225 to start training camp, which shows he is ready to tackle a spot at the top half of the order. Also, Bell could possibly steal a few more bases, as he only stole five bases through two seasons at the AAA level. His power can and will improve as he gains experience at the plate. I believe Bell can contribute across all hitting categories, and is being moderately overlooked and undervalued.

Greg Bird – 1B New York Yankees

Another 2011 draft pick, New York Yankees first baseman Greg Bird, was called up in August of 2015. He batted .261 with 11 home runs and 31 runs batted in, in only 178 plate appearances.

If this pace were to have continued over 500 plate appearance sample size, Bird would project 30 home runs and 87 runs batted in.

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Greg Brid expects full recovery from torn labrum heading into 2017. (Courtesy of   thesportquotient.com)

He has impressed in his minor league career, hitting a total of 48 home runs, 192 runs batted in, while slashing .282/.395/.483 over 347 games. Yankees General Manager, Brian Cashman, exclaimed that Bird is “A patient, power hitter. Best young hitter in organization”.

Bird is recovering from undergoing season ending surgery for a torn labrum in 2016. The twenty-four-year-old will compete with veteran Matt Holiday and youngster Tyler Austin for the starting first base job.

When Bird is awarded the starting job, he will slot in to the middle of the order. This will give him a great opportunity to produce in a Yankees lineup behind the likes of Gary Sanchez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brett Gardner.

Bird’s current ADP is 260, which means he is currently going undrafted. This means you could take Bird as a flyer, which is a pick at the end of the draft for a player with lower value but possibly high upside. If Bird’s ADP stays stagnant, he will be unforgivingly undervalued and overlooked.

Keon Broxton – OF Milwaukee Brewers

Another player going undrafted in leagues is Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Keon Broxton. Broxton, a 26-year-old former 3rd round pick, will hold down the Brewers center field to start 2017.

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Keon Broxton has high hopes for 2017. (Courtesy of fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com)

He spent two seasons at the AAA level, batting .267 with 15 home runs, 68 runs batted in, and 42 steals over 566 plate appearances. Broxton projects as a five-tool player with plus speed and above average power.

During the 2016 season, Broxton had 244 plate appearances, slashed .242/.354/.426 with 9 home runs, 19 runs batted in, and 24 steals. In a 500 plate appearance sample size, Broxton would have been on pace for 18 home runs and 47 steals.

Broxton’s speed alone gives him value, as he stole 203 bases in 273 attempts during his short career so far. Now with the Milwaukee Brewers, who stole 42 more bases than the next best team, Broxton has an even higher floor, as he will be aggressive on the base paths.

He will be limited by batting at the bottom half of the order, although his above average power upside mixed with his elite speed will make him a reliable fantasy producer and top 50 outfielder.

 

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The Best of Both Worlds – Play On DRAFT

No, this is not a promotional post. I wish I were getting paid to talk about DRAFT fantasy. I am taking the time out of my week to talk about one of the lesser-known Daily Fantasy sites because they deserve it. What makes them different or worthy of praise? Their specific focus on one DFS contest and seamless mobile app interface are just a few reasons why you should consider switching to DRAFT for your DFS fix.

The Snake Draft

The number one factor that differentiates DRAFT from its competitors is that they only offer one type of game. That’s right, DRAFT only offers a snake format for their DFS players. How is this different? For one, this format completely eliminates the salary cap concept. You no longer have to worry about sacrificing value at a given position because of a player’s price.

Another benefit of the snake format is low ownership. Since you are literally drafting players, no one else can roster a player you’ve chosen. Unlike salary cap leagues, players don’t have to worry about suffering from high ownership percentages.

In my opinion, the most appealing factor of a snake format is the fact that it’s a small, single entry contests. Players no longer have to worry about competing against people who can afford to create hundreds of rosters in large contests. Sure, there aren’t as many contests with upside like with FanDuel and DraftKings. However, there are still contests that yield as much as $540 or even $1,000.

A New Niche In DFS

DRAFT fantasy

DRAFT’s seamless app interface is one of the many reasons for this new DFS sites success. (Courtesy: upfront.com)

When I used to playing in season long leagues, the number one problem I faced was agreeing on a time to draft that worked for everyone. Then, if by some miracle we decided on a time, we would spend two to three hours selecting players.

What DRAFT has done is eliminate the multi-hour process usually needed to create a roster in season long leagues. Why? Because you don’t have to worry about rostering players on your bench. All you have to do is pick enough players for a starting lineup and that’s it. With DRAFT, you can now feel the exhilaration associated with season long league drafts each and every week. You can develop and hone your strategy until you have mastered the art of drafting.

With the emergence of this new DFS site, I wouldn’t be shocked if season long leagues on sites like ESPN or Yahoo turn into playing on DRAFT every week against your friends for 17 weeks. It’s truly the best of both worlds. You get to experience all the ups and downs of a season long draft every single week. You don’t have to worry about large player pools, or salary cap restrictions. Just be present at your leagues scheduled time and pick the best team you can.

Join me this weekend by signing up to play on DRAFT or by downloading their mobile app in the app store!

 

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“From Our Haus to Yours”

Applying Vegas Statistics – Line Movement

As avid DFS players, we will take almost any statistic into account when building our lineups. Of course, some have more weight than others. We’ve already discussed how to use the Implied Team Total and Point Spread statistics in your lineup construction process. The final Vegas statistic we’ll examine is line movement and how it relates to building DFS lineups.

 What is Line Movement?

Line movement occurs when the spread and/or the value of an over/under changes as a result of people betting on or against the favorite. Thus, the line will adjust to make the other teams’ odds more attractive as money pours in for one team. Predictably, this kind of movement indicates that the public is definitively on a certain team.

There are two groups that people refer to when talking about the amount of money being wagered- public money and smart, or, sharp money. Public money is straightforward; it’s the amount, usually a percent, of money wagered by normal players. So, when there is significant line movement, is it due to public money? The answer depends.

Expect Mat Stafford and Drew Brees to be heavily owned this weekend as they have one of the largest over/unders of the season.

Matt Stafford and Drew Brees will score early and often on Sunday in New Orleans.

On high profile games, the public is likely to drive line movement. An example of a week 13 high profile game is Detroit vs. New Orleans. Vegas Insider as of Wednesday evening had New Orleans (-6) with 77% of money being bet on Detroit. Thus, the line movement from (-5) to (-6) makes sense. With this in mind, you can logically assume that players on both teams, Detroit specifically, will be highly owned this Sunday.

For example, in week 12, 62% of public money was on the Seattle Seahawks. It should not come as a surprise that Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin were the highest owned players at their position across all FanDuel lineups according to NumberFire. By understanding where the majority of public money is bet, you can get an indication of ownership. There were other teams that accounted for a higher percentage of public money, but this was a high profile game. Most anticipated a strong performance by the Seahawks, but most were wrong.

The “Smart” Money

If you’ve never heard this term before, smart money is used to refer to the money being bet by the expert, or, professional gamblers. It’s not always a straightforward process identifying where the smart money is. Usually, the faster a line changes, the more likely that the smart money is causing the change. So, if a team opens as a two point favorite, then becomes a three point favorite after an hour, and then becomes a 4.5 point favorite by day’s end, the smart money would be with the favorite.

Another example of identifying smart money is when the public is betting big on an underdog. For this example let’s say a team is a seven point dog. The public continually wagers their money on the underdog, but, the line doesn’t move more than half a point. This would mean that the smart money is on the favorite. The same would apply if the scenario was flipped.

Line Movement and Your Lineup

In my opinion, this is the trickiest Vegas statistic to apply to a DFS strategy, especially football. I often don’t include it in my lineup construction. However, there were a few instances in which I did and the result proved to be beneficial.

For example, in week 11, the Pittsburgh Steelers opened as 8.5 point favorites over the Cleveland Browns and closed at 9 point favorites. In this situation, the public and smart money were on the Steelers. Given this information, I decided not to roster any Steelers players in my lineups. Sure, I missed out on a great Le’Veon Bell performance. But, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown scored 8.7 and 11.6 points respectively. That week, Roethlisberger was the sixth highest owned quarterback and Brown the highest owned wide receiver across all FanDuel contests.

I’m not claiming to be a genius. I just saw that the Pittsburgh triplets were going to be highly owned and decided to pivot and not roster any of them. I missed on Bell, but I avoided a catastrophic performance by Roethlisberger and a below average performance from Brown.

Line Movement in Week 13

It’s only Thursday, so the lines are still open. As of Thursday morning, here are the most interesting line movements and money percentages that should impact your DFS lineup.

Kansas City (+3.5) vs. Atlanta

  • The line originally opened at Kansas City (+4) and has only moved .5 points when 98% of the money is on Kansas City.
  • The smart money is on Atlanta, so don’t doubt the Falcons’ trio of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman this week at home.

Houston (+6.5) vs. Green Bay

  • No doubt the result of Monday night’s game, the Packers are now a 6.5 point favorite after only opening as a 3.5 point favorite.
  • With 73% of public money on the Packers, expect high ownership on Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams, as the smart money is also on Green Bay.

Washington (+2.5) vs. Arizona

  • In a matchup that features a great Washington offense against a great Arizona defense, the line has not moved from Washington (+2.5) despite 95% of public money on the Redskins.
  • The smart money is on Arizona. Look to avoid the obvious plays like Kirk Cousins, Jordan Reed, and Jamison Crowder, as the public is high on them.

 

 

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