2017 American League Preview: The AL East

Divisional competition consistently provides us some of the most compelling storylines in sports. While there are classic rivalries across any league, few match the excitement of a tight September pennant chase. In the weeks leading up to the season, The Game Haus will breakdown these classic divisional matchups and predict their outcome.

This week’s preview looks into the fierce battleground shaping up in the AL East. Baseball is famous for league parity, providing an environment where any team can emerge if they’re in the October hunt. In 2017, no division better represents this notion than the hotly contested American League East.

In addition to playing host to the storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox, several other teams have proven themselves contenders in recent years.  The road to the playoffs is never easy, but teams emerging from this division will have undoubtedly earned their spot.

 

#5 Tampa Bay Rays

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

2017 Projected Record: 70-92

One has to admire the Rays continued offseason efforts to infuse young talent into the organization. However, this is not the year for the Rays to compete with the remainder of the division. Tampa still has franchise stalwart Evan Longoria, and Kevin Kiermaier continues to improve.

It won’t be enough to contend. The Rays should improve slightly this year, but their main focus will be expediting young talent through the minors.

 

#4 Baltimore Orioles

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

2017 Projected Record: 82-80

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

The Orioles’ front office must have breathed a collective sigh of relief when Mark Trumbo signed on the dotted line. Attempting to replace league leading home run production with the acquisition of Seth Smith can hardly be considered a strategy. Most would expect some regression as it relates to Trumbo’s torrid power spree, but Baltimore will need every last long ball given the pitching situation.

There’s a ton to like about Baltimore’s lineup, and their power potential could very well lead the MLB once again. That said, relying on Chris Tillman to act as rotation ace should be a clear indication of a gap. Baltimore ended up posting an impressive 89 wins in 2016, but it’s hard to visualize a repeat performance.

 

#3 New York Yankees

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

2017 Projected Record: 85-77

Viewing the Yankees as the dark horse candidate in this division feels foreign. New York has spent the last few years on the cusp of contention but experienced a disappointing finish in 2016. However, a subpar finish to the season was quickly replaced by incredible optimism for the future. In an impressive series of moves, general manager Brian Cashman orchestrated the acquisition of several of the league’s top prospects from contenders.

The Yankees will look to put some of that young talent on display in 2017. Behind young bats Gary Sánchez and Aaron Judge, the Yankees should see an uptick in offensive production. The question facing New York will be last year’s injured and underperforming rotation.  The Yankees will give their divisional opponents headaches but may be a year out of real contention.

 

#2 Toronto Blue Jay’s

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

2017 Projected Record: 87-75

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

Edwin Encarnacion’s WAR in 2016 was 3.7, so perhaps projecting the 2016 win total to only drop by two is optimistic. The acquisitions of Kendrys Morales and Francisco Liriano, along with a dominant rotation has to count for something.

The Jays were also able to resign Jose Bautista and have many options to replace Michael Saunders. Overall, not much has changed for the Jays.

The core of what makes Toronto dangerous is still in place and this fiery Jays team will compete in 2017. The lineup is still strong, but the Jay’s will rely on the rotation that led the American League in ERA.

 

#1 Boston Red Sox

2017 American League Preview: The AL East

2017 Projected Record: 92-70

There are many worthy teams in the AL East, but one club stands above the rest. The Red Sox fell short in the ALDS last year but look to return with a vengeance in 2017. With the offseason acquisition of Chris Sale and rapid progression of star prospect Andrew Benintendi, Boston stands ready to compete.

The team that sported the most runs last year will miss the production of legend David Ortiz. However, the amount of young talent in the batting order backed by a star-studded rotation should put Boston at the top of arguably the most competitive division in the MLB.

 

*All logo images courtesy of MLB.com*

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Spring Training Fever: Baseball is Back in Business

Pitchers and catchers report. The words fans long to hear as they anxiously await the start of spring training. Unfortunately, this day always feels like much ado about nothing. The whole team has yet to assemble and the real action doesn’t really begin for another two weeks. However, baseball is back nonetheless and that is reason enough to be excited for the start of 2017 season.

While the actual importance of game results is lacking, there are certainly other areas worth analyzing this time of year. The following is a list of common spring training themes and some of the teams who may be attached to these storylines throughout camp.

“I’m in the Best Shape of My Life”

This is always a fan-favorite line players love to feed to reporters early in the season. Whether it’s shedding a few pounds (I’m looking at you Pablo), packing on muscle, or recovering from an injury, all eyes are on the general health of the team this time of year.

Team to Watch: Cleveland Indians

Spring Training Fever: Baseball is Back in Business

Danny Salazar #31 of the Cleveland Indians (Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Last year’s World Series runner-up battled through a bevy of injuries at year’s end and look to recuperate in 2017. Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Michael Brantley are all key pieces recovering for the Tribe. Their contribution to the upcoming campaign will be absolutely critical if Cleveland is to attempt a follow-up appearance in October.

Honorable Mentions: Mets, Tigers and Nationals

Rookie Roster Spots

This is the chance for the young guns to shine. With plenty of invites to go around, fans will see first-hand some of their organization’s rising stars. Leaving camp with only 25 roster spots means competition is fierce, and many won’t make the cut.

However, the opportunity for these minor leaguers to taste some big league action must be an experience like no other. There’s an impressive influx of young talent throughout the MLB, and spring training is the perfect chance to see it in action.

Team to Watch: Chicago White Sox

Chicago was certainly one of the more active teams this offseason. Committing fully to a rebuild, the White Sox offloaded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton for an impressive group of prospects.

There are few positions locked in for Chicago, and young stars Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito will undoubtedly get an opportunity. Those names added to a strong farm system should set the Sox up for an exciting spring and promising future.

Honorable Mentions: Braves, Rays and Brewers

Battle for the Bullpen

The aptly named “Closer Carousel” is always a hot topic come spring training. The pen is a perpetual source of spring intrigue for two major reasons.

First, it’s a way for managers to trial promising young arms and allow them to compete for a potential spot. Second, it provides the battle ground for the ever revolving door that is an MLB closer’s job. It’s a high stakes game with some of the hardest throwing individuals in Major League Baseball. What’s not to like?

Team to Watch: Colorado Rockies

Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies (Photo by Dustin Bradford via Getty Images)

This matchup represents one of the more intriguing closer battles going into spring training. Colorado improved this offseason with the addition of Ian Desmond to an already talented offense. The question hanging over Coors field is who will be the brave soul tasked with securing a home lead?

Adam Ottavino is coming off a respectable 2016 season and posted a 2.67 ERA with seven saves. The challenger will be the recently signed Greg Holland, who is coming off a season-ending Tommy John surgery in 2016. Holland holds a career 2.42 ERA and has amassed 145 career saves, including 47 in his best season.

At 31 years of age, both veterans will battle it out to earn a spot as the ninth inning man in one of baseball’s most hitter friendly parks.

Honorable Mentions: Reds, Angels, A’s, Twins, Phillies and Nationals

 

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Victor Decolongon/Getty Images

Pick up the Pace: MLB Revisits Pace of Play

Rob Manfred still isn’t satisfied with the length of major league games. In 2016, ESPN reported that MLB pace of play length had extended to three hours and 26 seconds. This occurred despite rule changes made during the 2015 season, which did result in an average below three hours.

Rule changes up to this point have targeted manager challenges, pitching change timing, inning change timing and even batter’s box foot placement. Furthermore, the MLB continues to experiment with a visible clock that appears to keep the pace, but additional changes appear to be imminent.

A list of previous experimental rules can be found here, but today The Game Haus takes a look potential changes coming for the 2017 season.

Possible Changes to MLB Pace of Play

Free Intentional Walks

MLB Pace of Play

Victor Decolongon/Getty Images

First and least impactful will be removing the age old tradition of intentionally tossing four balls to the catcher before the batter can claim his base. Changing this rule is useless on a few levels.

First off is the obvious lack of impact given that an intentional walk occurs approximately once every three games. Additionally, intentional walks rarely last more than 60 seconds. If each team gets its equal share, that rounds out to about 31 IBB’s in a 162 game season. Thank you Rob Manfred for saving the youth and their short attention spans.

Furthermore there are the occasional fun and wacky things that happens when you least expect them…

Like these:

 

If this is baseball’s way of saving time or attempting to show progressive change, there may be a better way.

Raising the Strike Zone

MLB Pace of Play

(Courtesy Sportsvision)

The second rule proposal is slightly more interesting. The resulting change would raise the lower border of the strike zone from “the hollow beneath the knee cap” to the top of the hitter’s knees.

The rationale behind this change is the result of rising walk and strikeout rates among players. The general idea here is to bring additional pitches into the batters normal swing path. Clearly this is designed to create more contact, put additional balls in play, and decrease hitters time spent at the plate.

Never mind the fact that this flies in the face of a ruling that dates back to 1887 (thanks to the internet we have a chronological evolution of the strike zone, credit Baseball-Almanac). This particular ruling “strikes” me as wishful thinking. This assumes player and umpire adjustment derived from simply stating the zone has moved the rough equivalent of two inches.

Changing human perception of a strike zone that has been ingrained into these individuals since they were 10 years old could be a challenge. That said, there is certainly no harm in testing this theory. Other than true baseball purists and pitching duel enthusiasts, most fans would enjoy seeing the ball in play more often. If this change somehow generates increased offense and forces pitchers to get more creative, it looks like a win-win.

Honorable Mentions

These are rules that have been casually rumored but don’t appear to have any short term impact for the time being.

  • Managers requested to complete faster pitching changes
  • 20 additional seconds off the between-innings clock
  • Player starting at second during extra innings
  • Additional enforcement of “one foot in the batter’s box at all times” rule

Currently any changes will have to be approved by the players union and will likely be piloted during Spring Training. That said, with only a few short days until pitchers and catchers report, it would appear the 2017 rules will likely remain the same. Baseball has traditionally been a sport where change has been frowned upon, and it certainly doesn’t appear that mentality will change any time soon.

 

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Cream of the Crop: Top Five Prospects from the Farm

As is tradition, MLB.com issued their top MLB prospects list this past week to highlight the games future stars. At the top of the class are five elite youngsters who are already generating a buzz around the league.

Some of these players have already made a contribution at the Major League level while others are rapidly progressing towards a call-up to “The Show”. Today, The Game Haus breaks down the players, their positional fit, and their expected contribution for the 2017 season.

 

No. 5 Amed Rosario

The 21-year-old Amed Rosario may be the one of two prospects on this list we don’t see in 2017. However, given Rosario’s outstanding minor league numbers and the positional need for the Mets, expect him sooner rather than later. Asdrubal Cabrera didn’t have a bad showing in 2016, but a dWAR of -0.1 may prompt the Mets to adjust.

In addition to outstanding fielding ability Rosario has been consistent at the plate through every level. Slashing .280/.328/.388 with good speed on the base paths and developing power, Rosario’s athleticism is unquestionable. For as young as he is the Mets shouldn’t need to rush a call-up, but at the speed he continues to develop, it may be hard for New York to hold off.

No. 4 Dansby Swanson

Top MLB Prospects

(Courtesy Getty Images)

Dansby Swanson was called up in August of last year and made his impact felt early and often. In just 129 at-bats, Swanson slashed .302/.361/.442, smacked three home runs, and stole three bases.

Atlanta made a strong showing in the final months of 2016 and Swanson played a critical role in that effort. Most impressive was Swanson’s ability to take his incredibly brief stint in the minors and immediately translate that skill set to the major league level. With maturity beyond his years and a winning baseball pedigree, the Braves have to feel good about this cornerstone player.

 

 

 

No. 3 Gleyber Torres

The third shortstop on the list, Gleyber Torres represents the top prospect at the position. A key trade piece in the 2016 Aroldis Chapman deal with the Cubs, the Yankees certainly netted an impressive return. Torres displays all of the defensive tools, but his power potential is what sets him apart at his position.

The interesting decision for the Yankees will be juggling call-up timing in relation to current up-and-comer Didi Gregorius. That said, at just 19 years old, the Yankees can afford to be very patient. Torres’ already advanced plate discipline will make it difficult to stash him for long, but having too many good shortstops in your system can hardly be considered an issue.

No. 2 Yoan Moncada

Top MLB Prospects

(Courtesy Getty Images)

Long considered to be the top prospect in the MLB, Yoan Moncada has only been recently inched out by number one on this list. However, losing out on the top spot certainly doesn’t take away from this young gun’s incredible potential. Developing through the Boston farm system, Moncada was only recently dealt to Chicago in the Chris Sale trade.

Slashing an impressive .287/395/.480 during his minor league career, with an even more impressive 94 stolen bases, there is no questioning Moncada’s MLB readiness.

A brief eight-game call-up in 2016 gave Moncada a taste of the majors, but not at his true position at second base. Given Chicago’s clear rebuild strategy, there’s no urgency to immediately slot him in. However, whenever the Sox decide he’s ready, there’s no chance Brett Lawrie will inhibit this future stars’ progress.

No. 1 Andrew Benintendi

At the top of the list sits Andrew Benintendi, and for good reason. After demolishing the minors slashing .312/.392/.540 he was called up to play 34 games in 2016. Benintendi kept pace by utilizing those 118 plate appearance to quickly generate a .295/.359/.476 slash line.

Despite his youth, Benintendi has a consistent ability to put the ball in play while also generating solid power. Already being slotted as the Red Sox everyday left fielder before the start of camp demonstrates Boston’s confidence in his readiness. Benintendi has performed at every level and it will be exciting to see how he continues to hone his craft in the 2017 season.

 

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2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Six

The sixth and final installment of the Game Haus’s 2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season. The season is almost upon us with just 14 days until pitchers and catchers report.

While teams continue to make minor moves before the start of camp, it appears rosters are mostly settled. Soon the conversation will switch from MLB hot stove to who will make the cut this spring. As Arizona and Florida prepare for early spring action it falls on The Game Haus to finish ranking those elite few who will undoubtedly be contending come October.

Without further ado, it’s time to round third and head for home.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Six

2016 record: 91-71

The Dodgers are getting the band back together and they certainly paid to do it. Both Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner collected sizeable payouts at five years $85 million and four years $65 million respectively.

Los Angeles also managed to procure Logan Forsythe from Tampa to fill a minor gap at second. Offloading a prospect like Jose De Leon indicates a win-now mentality and there’s no reason LA shouldn’t have one.

Los Angeles brought the juggernaut Cubs to six games in the NLCS. With a healthy Clayton Kershaw and a budding star in Julio Urias, they should be right back in the mix. The Dodgers may face some resistance from the Giants and potentially the dark horse Rockies, but they’re still a clear favorite in the division.

4. Washington Nationals

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Six

2016 record: 95-67

The Nationals experienced a disappointing ending to 2016 but should see a strong return in the coming season. A fully healthy Bryce Harper is going to help here along with the pickup of Adam Eaton to shore up the outfield. The loss of Wilson Ramos may leave some questions at catcher but there is more than enough pop elsewhere in this lineup.

Young short stop Trea Turner exploded onto the scene in 2016 and appears more than capable of holding his own. Lineup aside, the combination of Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg may represent the best one-two punch in the MLB, while the rest of the rotation remains solid.

Other than the Mets, the Nationals should have little to contend with in the East. Expect to see a Washington playoff appearance for the second year in a row.

3. Boston Red Sox

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Six

2016 record: 93-69

Chris Sale will head up a rotation that already has David Price and reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. Pair that rotation with the lineup that scored the most runs in baseball last year, and it’s clear Boston will be formidable yet again.

There is no replacing Big Papi or his power production, but there is more than enough young talent to suffice. With arguably the number one prospect in Andrew Benintendi and MVP candidate Mookie Betts, a new generation of stars emerge.

The AL East may be the most hotly contested division this year, but the Red Sox remain a cut above.

2. Cleveland Indians

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Six

2016 record: 94-67

The Indians have been searching for a true middle of the lineup power bat for years. There can be no doubt they found it in Edwin Encarnacion. That move, a healthy Michael Brantley, and a pitching staff at full strength may help overcome a tough 2016 finish.

The Indians remain a team of scrappy role players but Terry Francona’s ability to manage this squad makes them dangerous. A top-tier rotation backed by the bullpen strength of Cody Allen and Andrew Miller means the Indians will need few runs to rack up wins.

A weakened AL Central clearly places them at the top of the division, but a strong October run is what’s needed to win it all.

1. Chicago Cubs

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Six

2016 record: 103-58-1

It’s hard to debate that the world champs and their young core will again be at the top of the mix. Some may have argued the loss of Aroldis Chapman would impact their less than dominant bullpen. However, this was quickly addressed with the addition of Wade Davis for an under-performing Jorge Soler.

Dexter Fowler chose to move on to a divisional rival, but will be replaced with more youth in Albert Almora Jr. Other than another year’s experience and one world championship under their belt, not much has changed in Chicago.

There’s a chance the consistent Cardinals or talented Pirates challenge the top, but it’s unlikely the Cubs miss a beat.

Link to Previous Rankings

 

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2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Five

The Game Haus returns with another issue of 2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season. This past week has been an emotionally charged roller coaster in the MLB. Hall of Fame inductees and snubs have sparked debates among fans, players and writers. Old PED skeletons have spawned a number of questions about the validity of records and the integrity of players.

Worst of all, tragedy has again struck a young player with the loss of Royals’ pitcher Yordano Ventura.

Part of what makes sports great is the tremendous passion fans have around the game. These instances, while emotional, are part of the history and reality that makes this America’s past time. Fortunately, we can continue to look forward to the upcoming season and many more of the great moments that made us all fans to start.

This week we tackle 10-6 in the rankings. The big guns are coming out. While these teams may be a few pieces short of complete, look for all to compete come October. Many of these organizations were in the hunt last year and we’d expect much of the same this time around. All of these contenders have plenty of fire power on one side of the ball or the other. Time will tell if they can bring enough consistency in some of their weak areas to make a true run at the fall classic.

 

10. Pittsburgh Pirates

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Five

2016 record: 78-83-1

The Buckos has a solid offseason, managing to hold onto Andrew McCutchen and securing Ivan Nova in their rotation. That signing along with Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow’s continued development makes for a sneaky good rotation. If Pittsburgh somehow manages to get a deal done for Jose Quintana, the NL Central may have far more to bargain for than they originally intended. Pitching aside, the Pirates also sport one of the more promising outfields in the MLB. If the Pirates get even moderate contributions from their infield, expect a battle for an NL Wild Card come October.

 

9. San Francisco Giants

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Five

2016 record: 87-75

The big knock on the Giants last year was a lack of bullpen firepower. San Francisco certainly addressed that with the off-season acquisition of Mark Melancon. Overall, the Giants pitching has never really been their problem. Any rotation anchored by two of the best in Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto give you a great chance come postseason time. The question is whether the offense can sustain production throughout 162 games. The Dodgers and a surprise Rockies team may challenge, but the Giants should be actively contesting the top of the division at year end.

 

8. New York Mets

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Five

2016 record: 87-75

Widely considered the single best rotation in the majors last year, the Mets’ pitching staff returns near full force. Matt Harvey’s health is perpetually in question and New York did lose Bartolo Colon, but this rotation is outstanding regardless. With Yoenis Céspedes resigning in the off-season and Jay Bruce looking for a bounce back year, the Mets should have plenty of pop to get the job done. With this rotation and dominant closer Jeurys Familia in the bullpen, this club won’t need many runs to win games.

 

7. Texas Rangers

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Five

2016 record: 95-67

The first of two teams in the AL west we at The Game Haus have affectionately dubbed “The Arms Race”. The Rangers and the Astros wasted little time in securing top tier sluggers across their lineups this offseason. The Rangers have taken that crusade one step further by also bolstering their pitching with the acquisition of Tyson Ross. Assuming Ross can bounce back from his 2016 season-ending injury, he should provide needed depth to the Texas rotation. Generating back-to-back 95 win seasons is a tall order for any organization. That said, one look at the offensive ability of this lineup and you’d have to think a repeat is possible.

 

6. Houston Astos

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Five

2016 record: 84-78

Narrowly inching out its rival in the division, Houston is poised to unseat their “Arms Race” opponent Rangers. The acquisition of Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Josh Reddick add veteran power and presence to an already scary lineup. Young stars Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman continue to develop and I haven’t even mentioned perennial MVP candidate Jose Altuve. This lineup is that good. The question for Dallas Keuchel and staff is whether or not they can out-duel their divisional rivals. Both teams have the horses to win the AL West and for fans of baseball everywhere, this is the war to watch in 2017.

Link to Previous Rankings

 

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Mike Trout’s GOAT Potential: A rumble with the legends of the game

With the Hall of Fame induction vote finished, it only makes sense to take stock of our current MLB stars. No single player currently embodies the talent and qualities of a HOF candidate quite like Mike Trout. The debate rages on about the Angels’ inability to harness this generational talent into team success. However, Trout’s numbers speak for themselves and he only continues to improve year after year.

Mike Trout’s GOAT Potential

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

This MLB writer wasn’t fortunate enough to watch many of the past greats live performances, and can only admire the stats and the stories. Only now are childhood heroes like Jim Thome and Chipper Jones surfacing for induction into the hall. That said, the statistics remain, and it’s fascinating to compare the old-time sluggers to the players of today.

For this analysis, we take a look at modern day master Mike Trout against the best there ever was. The idea here is to predict Trout’s career in order to place him on par with the legends of the game. There will of course be some assumptions to follow, but those will be documented and explained throughout the analysis.

Without further ado, let’s nerd out.

 

Introducing first, fighting out of the present day, standing 6’2″, weighing in at 230 pounds, THE CHALLENGER, MIKE TROUT:

 

Mike Trout Career Totals

BA OBP SLG OPS H HR RBI
6 Year Totals 0.306 0.405 0.557 0.963 917 168 497
162 Game Avg. 0.306 0.405 0.557 0.963 183 34 99

 

Trout has been in the league 6 years and has consistently posted outstanding numbers while casually collecting two MVP awards. While the above takes into account more classic hitting statistics for comparison, Trout’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers are even more impressive. Trout continues to carve a legacy against the greats by already leading this statistic every year, at every age (An outstanding analysis by Neil Paine can be found here). His current career WAR sits at 48.5 through six seasons while averaging a WAR over eight.

To put this in perspective, the site FanGraphs defines WAR as follows:

  1. Scrub 0-1 WAR
  2. Role Player 1-2 WAR
  3. Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
  4. Good Player 3-4 WAR
  5. All-Star 4-5 WAR
  6. Superstar 5-6 WAR
  7. MVP 6+ WAR

In other words, Trout averages MVP caliber play. Even taking into consideration his sub-par rookie numbers after his midseason call-up in July 2011, the man is incredible.

Introducing next, fighting out of days of baseball past, standing at the greatest of all time, and weighing in at baseball’s finest, THE CHAMPIONS, THESE GUYS:

 

Legends Career Statistics

Years Played BA OBP SLG OPS Hits HR RBI’s
Barry Bonds 22 0.298 0.444 0.607 1.051 2935 762 1996
Ted Williams 19 0.344 0.482 0.634 1.116 2654 521 1839
Hank Aaron 21 0.305 0.374 0.555 0.928 3771 755 2297
Willie Mays 21 0.302 0.384 0.557 0.941 3283 660 1903
Babe Ruth 22 0.342 0.474 0.69 1.164 2837 714 2214

Argue with me if you must about the names on this list, but these guys could hit a baseball.

 

The Comparison

In order to get apples to apples, we have to extrapolate Trout’s numbers over a period befitting of one of the greats. As demonstrated in the above table, each one of these players spent nearly two decades in the majors. An average of their time spent comes out to 21 years.

Now the big assumptions in calculating future Trout are as follows:

  • Maintains his current averages as it relates to the ratio-statistics
  • Will play to his 162 game average
  • Have at least a 21-year career

 

Mike Trout’s GOAT Potential

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

 

Obviously, there are some red flags here. The chances of Trout never getting injured, sitting for any extended period of time, or experiencing general regression in his later years are minimal. On the flip side, Trout hasn’t even reach what would be considered a “baseball prime” in terms of age. With that in mind, it’s entirely possible we have yet to see career highs from Trout in any of these categories.

With those assumptions in place, the math becomes relatively simple. Take Trout’s six-year career numbers, and add them to 15 additional years of the 162-game average statistics (15+6=21 years).

 

 

 

 

Do that, and the chart now looks like this:

Years Played BA OBP SLG OPS Hits HR RBI’s
Barry Bonds 22 0.298 0.444 0.607 1.051 2935 762 1996
Ted Williams 19 0.344 0.482 0.634 1.116 2654 521 1839
Hank Aaron 21 0.305 0.374 0.555 0.928 3771 755 2297
Willie Mays 21 0.302 0.384 0.557 0.941 3283 660 1903
Babe Ruth 22 0.342 0.474 0.69 1.164 2837 714 2214
Future Trout 21 0.306 0.405 0.557 0.963 3662 678 1982

The Conclusion

Interestingly enough, this analysis doesn’t have Trout leading a single statistical category. Even so, he has numbers that rival the greats in literally every major hitting metric. Furthermore, this analysis doesn’t take into account WAR or fielding statistics which both add additional firepower to Trout’s case. GOAT may be some ways off, but most well-rounded is certainly in play as long as the performance continues.

It’s clear Trout still has a long way to go and a lot to prove if he wants to be considered among this outstanding group. That said, Trout is well on pace to rival the greats, and as anyone who’s watched him will tell you, the best is likely yet to come.

 

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2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four

We’re back with the Game Haus’ fourth installment of 2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four. In recent news, the Mariners decided to spite my previous ranking by making a plethora of moves and trades to shore up their rotation heading into the season. While Seattle undoubtedly improved it was the Braves and the Rays that both left that exchange with a promising future. In the meantime, teams all across the league continue to avoid arbitration and extend their players with a multitude of contracts being signed. Finally, with less than a month remaining before pitchers and catchers report, several worthy veterans remain on the open market.

The rankings must go on! This week takes a look at teams 15-11. Now we’re talking competition. Each one of these teams has enough pieces for a solid 2017 campaign. While most wouldn’t place these teams in the top tier, any of these organizations could make a wild card run. As we all know, if you are still in the running in October, anything can happen.

 

15. Detroit Tigers

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four

Record: 86-75

Many pegged the Tigers as sellers this offseason, but that sale never really came. Detroit returns in 2017 sporting much of the same core it’s competed with the last several years. Last season, Justin Verlander reclaimed his ace status and Michael Fulmer emerged as an extremely promising second option. Add that to a lineup chalk full of seasoned veterans led by Miguel Cabrera, and you’ve got yourself a shot. The Tigers should find success given the largely depleted AL Central, but will it be enough to match the Indians?

 

14. New York Yankees

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four

2016 record: 84-78

No one would accuse Yankees GM Brian Cashman of being dormant this Winter. Not only did the Yanks clean up last trade deadline, but also managed to reclaim star closer Aroldis Chapman. Blue Chip prospects like Clint Frazier and Gleyber Torres came over during the Yankees closer sale, but aren’t even part of the young core already on the field.  Didi Gregorious, Aaron Judge, and breakout star catcher Gary Sánchez have already emerged, and are expected in the 2017 lineup. The real question facing the Yankees is whether Masahiro Tanaka and company can bounce back from a tough 2016. Rotation aside, the Yankees may be a bit young for a serious run, but lookout for the pinstripes very soon.

 

13. Colorado Rockies

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four

2016 record: 75-87

Admittedly this feels a bit high up in the rankings for a Rockies team with 87 losses in 2016. That said, one can’t help but be impressed by the lineup Colorado has assembled. The surprise signing of Ian Desmond alone gives the Rocks a sizable infield boost. Pair that with young players like Trevor Story and potential NL MVP candidate Nolan Arenado, and you’re looking at serious potential. Like many teams, the question mark hangs over a young rotation that did show promise in 2016. Coors Field will never be a pitchers dream, but if just one of those young pitchers can establish themselves as an ace, look for Colorado to do some damage in 2017.

 

12. Toronto Blue Jays

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four

2016 record: 89-73

The Blue Jay’s had an AL leading 3.78 ERA in 2016, and that whole rotation will be returning. Tack on a presumably healthy Francisco Liriano, and you have one of the more dangerous rotations in the MLB. The rotation is set, but now Toronto must cope with the loss of star slugger Edwin Encarnacion. Further adding complexity is the loss of Michael Saunders from the lineup. Jose Bautista will be staying in Toronto. However, losing both Encarnacion and Saunders leaves a considerable gap for the Jays to fill. The offseason signing of Kendrys Morales certainly helps soften that blow by adding a solid DH. The Blue Jays may have a different dynamic than in years past, but expect them to be competitive regardless.

 

11. St. Louis Cardinals

2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Four

2016 record: 86-76

The Cardinals are just solid. At this point, it’s basically their thing. The team continuously churns out seasons on the better side of 85 wins. Continue packing Busch Stadium with loyal red birds’ fans, and they continue their war against the top team in the MLB. The Cards have great depth and flexibility throughout their lineup bolstered by the poaching of center fielder Dexter Fowler. At this point, this question is the broken record of baseball, but again we’re asking, “What about that rotation?” Adam Wainwright is the perennial staple for this staff, but a slow decline the past few years is concerning. However, if Wainwright reclaims some former glory and Michael Wacha can bounce back from an injury-wrought 2016, the Cards may just have enough in the tank to cause trouble for the Cubs.

*Logos courtesy of MLB.com*

Link to Previous Rankings

Part 1: Here

Part 2: Here

Part 3: Here

 

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“From Our Haus to Yours”

Finishing Free Agency: Where will the big names land?

Not even two days after I wrote this: “In recent news nothing of any real note has occurred”. And this: “Not much has changed for Seattle, and they haven’t been tied to any deal of significance”.

The Mariners went out and traded for Drew Smyly to accompany Yovani Gallardo in anchoring the back of their rotation. The Braves then traded Mallex Smith and Shae Simmons to Seattle for Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows. Finally, nothing short of 14 other transactions occurred around the MLB including contract agreements, designations, and releases.

Baseball God’s 1, Ignorant MLB writer 0.

Not that any of these signings are blockbusters, but clearly teams are still active before the start of spring training. The question remaining for most fans is whether or not their team will be the one to land one of the remaining big names. Suitable homes for Jose Bautista, Matt Wieters, and Mark Trumbo continue to be the source of speculation around the league. There is a risk and reward argument to be made for each. Today, The Game Haus breaks down likely landing spots for these veteran players.

Jose Bautista

Finishing Free Agency: Where will the big names land?
POS: OF
2016 Slash Line:
.234/.366/.452

Player Profile

Finishing Free Agency: Where will the big names land?What do two stints on the disabled list, regressing performance, and a controversial attitude get you at age 36 in the MLB? Apparently a long wait in free agency. Given the multiple injuries Bautista endured during the season, he still managed a strong finish to the year.

Clearly Bautista can still swing the lumber. He managed 22 home runs after missing 46 games. However, his regressing defense and propensity for providing opposing teams plenty of “bulletin board material” may make teams weary to engage in any sort of multi-year commitment.

Ideal Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays are Joey Bats’ true home, and probably one of the few places that can still stand him. Personality issues aside, the loss of Edwin Encarnacion, and the potential departure of Michael Saunders leave significant holes in Toronto’s lineup. Simply put, in one off-season the Jays are at serious risk of losing much of the run support that has made them contenders. Besides, Jays fans love those bat flips.

 

Matt Wieters

Finishing Free Agency: Where will the big names land?
POS: C
2016 Slash Line:
.243/.302/.409

Finishing Free Agency: Where will the big names land?

Player Profile

Matt Wieters is the “Mr. Reliable” of the remaining free agent class. He will provide consistent offensive production, strong defense, and veteran leadership to whomever signs this four-time all-star. Unlike others on this list, Wieters’ offensive numbers don’t jump off the page. Teams’ interest in him will likely be based around his defensive proficiency and ability to manage a pitching staff. Wieters’ 2016 was a down year statistically, but given his track record he shouldn’t have trouble finding a suitable home.

Ideal Landing Spot: Arizona Diamondbacks

Up to this point, Wieters has been closely linked to the Angels despite an earlier off-season trade for Martin Maldonado. However, the diamondbacks present an interesting option and could benefit greatly from Wieters’ veteran presence. Arizona has a young rotation anchored by Zack Greinke, and Wieters presents a significant upgrade over Jeff Mathis. 2017 looks like a toss-up between the two teams in terms of upcoming performance. That said, if Wieters is looking for a multi-year deal, the D-Backs long-term outlooks appear a bit more positive than the Angels.

 

Mark Trumbo

Finishing Free Agency: Where will the big names land?
POS: OF
2016 Slash Line:
.256/.316/.533

Player Profile

Crushing an obscene 47 home runs the year you’re up for free agency certainly doesn’t hurt one’s ability to collect a paycheck. Trumbo’s league leading ability to hit the long ball is matched only by his swing and miss potential. He ranked tenth among all players in strikeouts last season. This fact coupled with sub-par outfield performance makes Trumbo a risk, despite his career year in the home run category. Baseball aficionados will undoubtedly claim “regression to the mean” in Trumbo’s future. Even so, he has hit at least 20 home runs a season all but once in his career, and should make a valuable power addition to any team.

Ideal Landing Spot: Baltimore Orioles

The Rangers and Rockies have been linked to Trumbo. Given the Ian Desmond signing in Colorado and the Rangers interest in Mike Napoli, neither seems likely. Trumbo fits the power driven mold and positional needs for Baltimore perfectly. The Orioles can’t hope to come close to Trumbo’s production with Seth Smith currently slotted in right field. Trumbo isn’t there for defense, but does provide flexibility in right and at first when Chris Davis fills the DH role. Regression should be expected, but given the alternative, Baltimore needs to pay the man.

*Credit to sources http://mlb.mlb.com/home (Photos) and http://www.baseball-reference.com/ (Statistics)*

 

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2017 MLB Rankings: Sizing up the Season Part Three

Round three of The Game Haus’ 2017 MLB Rankings. In recent news nothing of any real note has occurred. This is spite of the ever swirling trade rumors and non-stop speculation that plagues these dreary months. Although there is little to get our baseball starved brains excited, as die-hard baseball fans, we must press on.

To pull us out of the dregs, this week we’ll tackle ranks 20-16. At first glance many of these rosters are recognizable but don’t exactly jump off the page. This group is an interesting mix of teams that appear to be in decline, and teams that are few pieces short of making a splash. Regardless, this spot in the rankings often has one or two surprise contenders playing spoiler at years end.

 

20. Arizona Diamondbacks

2016 Record: 69-93

2017-MLB-Rankings-Sizing-up-the-Season-Part-Three

Rest in peace 2016 Diamondbacks. A 93 loss season isn’t what Arizona had in mind heading into last season, and it cost the front office their jobs. Injuries certainly played a factor in the overall result and a “healthy” roster should give D-Backs fans some optimism.

There is enough talent in the field to do some damage between the return of A.J. Pollock, the pop of Jake Lamb, and the overall dominance of Paul Goldschmidt. The real question facing Arizona is whether Zack Greinke and the rotation can hold down their end of bargain. The acquisition of Taijuan Walker won’t hurt their chances and adds a solid young arm for depth. If the injury bug stays away the D-Backs should look for a much more successful season in 2017.

 

19. Atlanta Braves

2016 record: 68-93

2017-MLB-Rankings-Sizing-up-the-Season-Part-Three

The Braves are undoubtedly a team to watch heading into next season. Freddie Freeman led the charge for this group leading the team in batting average, home runs, on base percentage, hits, and runs batted in.

Despite a slow start, the Braves finished the season strong and have an impressive battery of talent waiting in the wings. Infield breakout star Dansby Swanson should continue to develop while backed by pitcher Mike Foltynewicz and a number of other young arms.

The youngsters won’t have to do it alone as the team has also acquired veterans R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon to help anchor the rotation. The Braves appear poised to take a big step forward next season and may be a serious contender sooner than some may guess.

 

18. Baltimore Orioles

2016 record: 89-73

2017-MLB-Rankings-Sizing-up-the-Season-Part-Three

Someone get some gravy to go along with those 253 mashed taters. If the Orioles do decide to pass on resigning Mark Trumbo, they may experience a drop in pop. That said, there is no shortage of remaining power to go around. The mix of Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and MVP contender Manny Machado, in long ball friendly Camden Yards, can’t look good to opposing pitchers.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, that field works both ways. Outside of a solid Chris Tillman and a developing Kevin Gausman the Orioles appear to lack the arms they need. Based on last year alone the Orioles probably deserve more respect. However, until they make a play to shore up the rotation, their October aspirations seem limited.

 

17. Seattle Mariners

2016 record 86-76

2017-MLB-Rankings-Sizing-up-the-Season-Part-Three

The offseason saw the Mariners trade decent pitching for decent hitting in the Taijuan Walker for Jean Segura deal. Outside of that, not much has changed for Seattle, and they haven’t been tied to any deal of significance since. With an aging roster and little to celebrate in the farm system, Seattle appears poised for regression in 2017.

Bright spots remain with Robinson Cano discovering a massive resurgence of power and an improved batting average over 2015. Furthermore, King Felix remains atop the rotation with two extremely solid pieces in Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton right behind him. The Mariners are a coin flip for 2017 in terms of performance but safe money doesn’t see Seattle seriously contending in the short term.

 

16. Kansas City Royals

2016 record: 81-81

2017-MLB-Rankings-Sizing-up-the-Season-Part-Three

2017 appears to be the final year for Ned Yost’s small ball contenders. The Royals have leveraged a scrappy lineup and dominant bullpen for the last several years. Unfortunately for Kansas City, many of those core components are seeing their contracts expire at the end of this year.

The trade for Jorge Soler procured a bit of youth, but given Soler’s struggles, it’s hard to determine short term impact. The Royals were another team that suffered from ill-timed injuries in 2016. Given a healthy lineup this year should see improvement for KC, but it likely won’t be enough to unseat the top of the AL central.

All logo images courtesy of MLB.com.

 

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