Week two DFS don’ts: Tight ends
Week one reinforced our belief in the volatility at the tight end position. The top five scoring tight ends on FanDuel were all less than $5,500 and Jason Witten was the most expensive. The most notable players at this position disappointed in a big way. This means you need to pay attention to match up and opportunity, not the name on the jersey. With that being said, one of the highest scoring tight ends of week one has found himself on my list of week two DFS don’ts.
Austin Hooper: FanDuel Price $5,500
What? How is the highest scoring tight end in week one DFS don’ts? The opportunity is not and will not be there for Austin Hooper this week. When selecting a tight end, you normally want to follow this checklist. Is his team a heavy favorite? Is his team playing at home? Does he command between eight percent and 15 percent of his team’s targets?
First, the opening line on the Atlanta and Green Bay game started with Atlanta as a one point favorite. Currently on BOVADA, the line has moved to Atlanta -3. This is a good sign for Hooper. If the line becomes Atlanta -5, then you can start to consider Hooper as your DFS tight end. However, there is more to examine.
Second, the Falcons are playing at home, on Sunday night, in their new stadium. Even I can’t deny that narrative. I was at the NFC Championship last year and the atmosphere was incredible. Everyone is going to remember how the Packers got dismantled by this team, including Aaron Rodgers. This game will likely shoot out given these two offenses and the already high over/under of 54.
Finally, the most important part of the checklist is his target market share. For those who don’t know, target market share is the percentage of targets a player gets. Against the Bears, Hooper received a whopping six percent of Matt Ryan’s targets. The only reason he produced was because of a coverage lapse by the Bears. If you want to count on a guy who needs a complete coverage breakdown to produce, at an incredibly inflated price, be my guest.
Jack Doyle: FanDuel Price $5,200
It’s obvious, I know. However, that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t talk about how awful this matchup is for Doyle. First, he might have the worst quarterback in the NFL. Scott Tolzien is unwatchable. Even with such a game flow that dictated the Colts to throw the ball, Doyle only saw three targets. Maybe the situation improves if Jacoby Brissett gets to start. But, that may not help given their lack of chemistry.
Not only does Doyle have an awful quarterback, he has potentially the worst matchup in the NFL. In my DFS don’ts tight end piece last week, I talked about how good the Cardinals defense is against tight ends. They only surrendered two touchdowns in 2016 to tight ends, and they never allowed more than 53 receiving yards in a single game to the opposition. Predictably, Eric Ebron was awful against the Cardinals.
If the Cardinals are going to be this good going forward, I may have to place any tight end playing against them in this series. Maybe I would consider Doyle as a “punt” play at the tight end position, but his price of $5,200 doesn’t even allow me to do that. There are plenty of other options with better matchups and prices in this week’s main slate.
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