week one DFS Dont's

Week One DFS Dont’s: Wide Receivers

NFL wide receivers are some of the most popular players among fans. Players like Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown and Julio Jones have massive followings and are revered for their explosiveness and raw talent. However, these three players are always among the most expensive DFS options every week. Are they worth their high price, or will one of these talents end up on my week one DFS Dont’s?

Dez Bryant – FanDuel Price $7,800

There are plenty of positives that point to playing Dez Bryant in week one. Bryant was able to spend an entire off season working with Prescott and developing more chemistry with the young quarterback. Also, Bryant is entering this season with his health in tact without any nagging injuries.

week one DFS Dont's

Dez Bryant’s talent is undeniable, but will it be enough to produce against one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL? (Photo Courtesy of; Zimbio.com)

What doesn’t have me liking Bryant this week is the match up. This Giants defense is absolutely suffocating. This unit is headlined by multiple first and second team All-Pro players. Bryant will have to face Janoris Jenkins, Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie and Landon Collins on Sunday night. Apart from a great secondary, the Giants defensive line will cause problems for Prescott and company.

One could argue that Bryant is talented enough to overcome a touch match up, and, you’d be correct. However, talent alone is not the most important factor in winning tough 1 on 1 battles. Skill and precision are more important. Sadly, Dez has a limited route tree. This claim has been well documented by NFL greats like Drew Pearson and Cris Carter. Creating separation at the top of routes and accelerating out of breaks is something Dez is not elite at, despite his incredible talent.

Match up aside, Bryant’s history against this team is not great. Last year, Bryant turned 14 total targets into two receptions, 18 yards, and zero touchdowns. I’m not saying this trend will continue in 2017. But, I’m not willing to take a chance in week one given Bryant’s $7,800 price tag. There are plenty of better options with similar price and production on this slate. It’s possible he overcomes this tough match up and is “productive”, but I don’t see him exceeding 6 catches for 50 or more yards. Thus, he winds up on my week one DFS Dont’s.

Golden Tate – Fanduel Price $6,900

At this point, we know exactly who Golden Tate is. He’s a great possession first wide receiver who is a PPR monster with above average run after the catch ability. But, we also know that Tate has trouble reaching the end zone on a consistent basis. For this reason, he is usually a wide receiver three among my DFS rosters. The only problem is he’s being priced as a solid number two.

week one DFS Dont's

Golden Tate has established himself as a valuable piece of this Lions’ passing game. (Photo Courtesy of; ESPN Insider)

Tate’s placement on my week one DFS Dont’s is more about his match up and value. Yesterday I outlined how incredible the Cardinals defense was against tight ends. The statistics against wide receivers are not as impressive; however, Tate will have to face Patrick Peterson or Tyrann Mathieu for about half the game. Those two players, along with the versatile Deone Buchanon, will no doubt have Tate on their radar for Sunday’s game.

Let’s say Tate still finds a way to be “productive” by recording at least eight catches for 70 yards despite this unfavorable match up. Well, you just paid close to $7,000 for at best 11 points when you could have chosen Alshon Jefferey for $100 more, or Michael Crabtree as the exact same price! Jeffery has shown he is the primary receiving target for Carson Wentz this preseason, and, Crabtree has proven to be a red zone machine. Not to mention, Brandon Marshall and Davante Adams are both $100 cheaper with a better match up, or a better quarterback respectively.

Jarvis Landry – Fanduel Price $6,400

I feel sorry for Jarvis Landry. No other wide receiver has fallen so far out of favor for almost no reason. The preseason injury to Ryan Tannehill and subsequent signing of Jay Cutler has destroyed Landry’s value. He has proved to be a force when operating in the middle of the field. However, Cutler prefers throwing down the field to large-body receivers, i.e. DeVante Parker.

I’m not saying Landry is unplayable the rest of the season. I’m saying that right now, I prefer Parker, who happens to be $100 cheaper and has more touchdown upside. Now, this could change depending on the weekly match up or health. The quickest way Landry becomes more appealing is if his price drops to reflect his number two status. If he eventually becomes $6,100 or lower, he will no doubt find his way on to my cash games lineups.

Finally, there seem to be other circumstances in play here. Rumors have been swirling of a potential domestic violence allegation against Landry. Of course, these are just rumors. But, when you combine this allegation with the fact that he does not have a long-term deal inked, and the emerging trade talks, it makes me seriously question how much the Dolphins want him. I hope Landry’s situation becomes more clear. Sadly, talent ins’t enough to steer clear of my week one DFS Dont’s. Obviously, this analysis was crafted before the cancellation of this week’s Miami and Tampa Bay game. So technically, all players in that game are on my week one DFS Dont’s list.

 

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