What is wrong with these 2016 Cy Young candidates?
Winning back-to-back Cy Young awards is quite the feat, as it has only been done by seven different players since the year 1956, most notably in 2013 and 2014 by Clayton Kershaw. Repeating as Cy Young is rarely anticipated, although having severe struggles are the last thing expected.
In 2017, we have seen six individuals suffer a hangover from their 2016 Cy Young-caliber seasons. In this piece, I will discuss why the player is struggling and what to expect from them moving forward.
The statistics below are accurate up to July 8, 2017
|2016 Stats||33 GS||22-4 W-L||3.15 ERA||1.01 WHIP||7.63 K/9||223 IP|
|2017 Stats||18 GS||4-10 W-L||5.01 ERA||1.48 WHIP||8.25 K/9||111.1 IP|
The reigning American League Cy Young award winner has regressed back to his normal self.
When looking at his pitches, Porcello has generally thrown his change-up at a 12 percent clip, although in 2017 he is only throwing it nine percent of the time, and for good reason.
According to his pitch values on fangraphs.com, where zero represents the average, Porcello’s 2016 change-up measured in at a 10.0, although so far in 2017, his change-up is valued at -2.2. His struggles with the change-up are possibly connected to his fastball woes as well, as in 2016 his fastball was valued at 13.0, although it is currently valued at -10.3.
His career BABIP sits at .312, although during his two most successful seasons in which he posted a 3.15 and 3.43 ERA, his BABIP sat comfortably below .300. Currently in 2017, his BABIP is an astronomical .346, which does scream for positive regression, although it explains part of his struggles.
His career home run to fly ball rate, or HR/FB, is a respectable 11.4 percent, although in his most successful seasons, he was able to keep it under 9.5.
Clearly, Porcello’s struggles have to do with the fact that he is extremely hittable. You can’t expect too much of a pitcher whose batting average against is almost .300.
|2016 Stats||32 GS||19-5 W-L||2.44 ERA||1.10 WHIP||8.75 K/9||202.2 IP|
|2017 Stats||18 GS||5-5 W-L||3.94 ERA||1.23 WHIP||9.22 K/9||107.1 IP|
The 2016 National League Cy Young runner-up has been a serious disappointment this season.
He currently sports a left on base percentage, or LOB, of 71.6, which is much closer to his career average of 75.2 percent than his 2016 mark of 84.9 percent. Similarly, his current batting average against of .249 is also significantly closer to his career mark of .241, although his batting average against in 2016 was an incredible .209.
He is mixing his pitches in an almost identical fashion as he did in 2014, although his results have been quite the opposite. When looking at his pitch values and velocity, his fastball and curveball have both become negative in value while decreasing significantly in velocity.
It is fair to say that this 2017 Lester, opposed to the 2016 Cy Young-caliber Lester, is what we should expect moving forward.
|2016 Stats||34 GS||16-9 W-L||3.04 ERA||1.00 WHIP||10.04 K/9||227.2 IP|
|2017 Stats||17 GS||5-5 W-L||4.96 ERA||1.52 WHIP||8.45 K/9||98 IP|
Verlander’s 2017 season has been a serious anomaly. He has posted an ERA above four only twice in his 12-year career, although he seems to be on track to do so again this season.
The 2016 American League Cy Young runner-up won 16 games while posting a 3.04 ERA and an incredible .204 batting average against. Most people would say he was snubbed in the Cy Young vote, as his ratios far outshined Porcello’s, who won the award majorly because of his 22 wins and only four losses.
So far in 2017, Verlander has severely struggled with pitch location, as his career walk rate is 2.76 per nine innings, although his current walk rate is at a career high 4.39. This has caused his WHIP to rise from 1.00 in 2016 to 1.52 this year.
The 34-year-old’s BABIP of .316 suggests that he is due for some positive regression and his velocity has increased from last season, although his struggles seem control induced, which is not a good sign moving ahead.
|2016 Stats||32 GS||18-5 W-L||2.79 ERA||1.09 WHIP||8.11 K/9||219.2 IP|
|2017 Stats||17 GS||6-7 W-L||4.26 ERA||1.33 WHIP||8.18 K/9||105.2 IP|
Cueto’s 2016 campaign reminded us of his 2014 Cy Young runner-up season, where at 28 years old, he finished the season with 20 wins and a 2.25 ERA.
In 2016, Cueto was astounding, recording 18 wins and a 2.79 ERA. Now in 2017, Cueto is having his worst career year since his sophomore season with the Cincinnati Reds in 2009.
The 31-year-old is currently allowing 35.4 percent hard contact, which is about seven percent higher than his career mark, and 13 percent higher than in his 2014 season. He seems to be getting a bit unlucky as well, as his HR/FB is very high at 16.8 percent, which is well off his career average of 10.3 percent.
The most notable change to his pitch values are with his change-up, which has been his best complimentary pitch over his career and measures in at 21.7, although in 2017 alone his change-up is valued at -3.5.
An ineffective change-up, mile-high HR/FB rate and excessive amount of hard contact all seem to be the prime causes of Cueto’s 2017 struggles. A turnaround is definitely possible if he can reign in his change-up and begin to limit hard contact.
|2016 Stats||31 GS||14-4 W-L||3.07 ERA||1.08 WHIP||7.44 K/9||199.2 IP|
|2017 Stats||17 GS||7-7 W-L||5.25 ERA||1.36 WHIP||9.03 K/9||97.2 IP|
Tanaka’s 2017 season has been nothing like we’ve ever seen from the Japanese international.
His current walk rate is at 2.40 per nine innings, although he had a walk rate under 1.62 in each of his last three seasons. Also, his BABIP is over .300 for the first time in his major league career, which is a bad sign for a ground ball pitcher like himself.
The major problem for Tanaka seems to be his lack of ability to throw the fastball. His four-seam fastball and cutter both rank in the deep negatives for pitch values. His off-speed pitches remain his bread and butter, although they are much less effective without a successful fastball to work off of.
Without a moderately effective fastball, Tanaka will remain unsuccessful.
|2016 Stats||30 GS||16-8 W-L||2.13 ERA||0.98 WHIP||8.05 K/9||190 IP|
|2017 Stats||11 GS||4-3 W-L||4.09 ERA||1.20 WHIP||7.44 K/9||61.2 IP|
Hendricks is a very interesting pitcher, as he managed to be a Cy Young candidate in 2016 while having on average an 86 mile per hour fastball.
He finished the 2016 season with 16 wins and an incredible 2.13 ERA, although in 2017, his command has decreased significantly. He is walking a full player more per nine innings than in both of his previous years.
The 27-year-old is also allowing 36 percent hard contact, which is over 10 percent higher than he has let up in his last four seasons. He is currently dealing with right middle finger inflammation, although he is scheduled for a rehab start on July 10 at the Double-A level.
It seems as though an injury has led to a lack of command, which is allowing hitters to make much better contact than in years past. If he can get healthy, there is a chance he can get back on track.
Featured image by the Chicago Tribune
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